Coronavirus General Discussion

[Libertarian666]

Why, with the greatest healthcare system in the world, can the US not have testing kits readily available yet after watching this go on for weeks now in China, S Korea and Italy?

I'm thinking the same thing. As fate would have it, a good friend of mine had a medical/surgical emergency this week, and I got a close-up look at a very dysfunctional system masquerading as a "world class" hospital. In an out of ERs, six-hour waits in waiting rooms full of hacking people with no attempt to mask or isolate them (my friend is immune compromised, by the way), a seeming inability to get basic diagnostic work done or to get the needed specialists on site, etc., etc. While all this was going on, I kept thinking: Here we are, nearly a decade into the "Affordable Care Act." Insurance premiums have tripled, deductibles have skyrocketed, and the system seems broken like never before.

I hope you don't think that is an accident. It was the goal of the "ACA" all along.

[Libertarian666]

David Faber asked an important question this morning: How do you know when to re-open schools?

My recommendation: never.

[dualstow]

Always the voice of moderation.

[Libertarian666]

I don't know if this is exactly what you mean, but a few years ago the newspaper had a photo of a young, muscular guy who died of the flu to show that, see, you don't have to be old or enfeebled to die of the flu.

Well, it sure ain't killing 20,000 young muscular guys every year.

No, but this reminds of the house sign that reads:
THIS HOUSE GUARDED BY SHOTGUN 3 NIGHTS A WEEK. YOU GUESS WHICH 3.

Obvious differences, of course. Odds. The fact that the flu is contagious.
It just seems like such a simple thing to get a flu shot. I don't know why more people don't do it, but especially at Vinny's age.

I'm not doing it and I think I'm about Vinnie's age.
If I recall correctly, almost every year during or after flu season there's a report saying "they got the wrong vaccine again so it won't protect you".

[Libertarian666]

Does anyone go to a public gym? What is attendance like - the same, with people being better about wiping things down? Or more sparse?

We have been going to a public gym and it has been about the same as before as far as attendance.

However, we're cocooning now until we see what is going on. Both of us are over 70, and although we are both in very good health for our ages, we're not taking a potentially deadly risk that we can avoid.

[dualstow]

It just seems like such a simple thing to get a flu shot. I don't know why more people don't do it, but especially at Vinny's age.

I'm not doing it and I think I'm about Vinnie's age.
If I recall correctly, almost every year during or after flu season there's a report saying "they got the wrong vaccine again so it won't protect you".

They do make mistakes, and sometimes even with the “right” vaccine you get infected with a different strain.

[Libertarian666]

I went to Costco this past Wednesday morning and was expecting chaos. I was surprised, only a half-dozen shoppers waiting for the doors to open. Shelves stocked with typical amounts of toilet paper, Kleenex, paper towels, water etc. No fights in the aisles, shoppers and clerks were courteous. Checkout was a breeze. I guess chaos depends on where you live, and what day/time you go to the store.

Our nearest Costco was out of toilet paper both on Monday and last Friday.
It was pretty busy but not chaotic.

[Libertarian666]

Business as usual at the grocery stores here today. I didn't see any empty shelves. These stories remind me of the long gas lines and shortages after Sandy. It turns out there was no actual gas shortage, but because everyone panicked and decided to fill up on gas immediately after, stations started running out and long lines formed.

I keep expecting to find shortages of stuff from China on Amazon, but it's not happening - yet. I've been wondering if I should buy a new window air conditioner - not because I need it, but just in case something breaks over the summer and I don't get caught short. My window A/C's have to fit some unusual requirements (narrow windows) and the only ones that fit are made in China. I can survive without a lot of things, but I definitely draw the line at A/C!

I would do it. The downside is minimal.

[Libertarian666]

Vinny, you could not pay me to watch women's basketball.

I wish they had all the girls games in one place and all the boys games in another place so I could just see the boys games. They start with division IV girls then division IV boys then go to the two division III pair and, finally, the two division II games (the two division 1 games were played Friday night).

When you see the two games back-to-back representing the same division (first girls than boys) the differences between girls and boys basketball are quite dramatic. The boys come out to play and you see the differences in speed, strength, skill, athleticism.

The divisions III girls came was illustrative of your point. These were the two best division II teams in all of western Massachusetts playing against one another. With 2 1/2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter (after 21 1/2 minutes of play) one of the teams had scored a grand total of 3 (!!!) points! Contrast that to the division IV boys game wherein one of the boys scored 45 points (in 36 minutes -- the game went into a 4 minute overtime).

General girl / women basketball players are good at dribbling, set shots, three pointers, playing defense, playing as a team. This carries through with the handful that I've played with and against.

We currently have a 27 year old woman who plays with us regularly. She only weighs 118 pounds and I am always amazed how much easier she can put up a three point shot than I can.

Vinny

I don't know much about women's basketball but if it's anything like track and field, my understanding is that a good high school boy's team would crush any women's team, including the Olympic winners.

There's just no comparison in athleticism between men and women.

[yankees60]

In the last 48 hours NBA players have been informed that they may be playing in empty arenas by the end of the week. The NBA board of governors is also discussing shifting games to (uninfected) away teams' arenas or neutral locations.

Vinny

[WiseOne]

1. I don't think securing the borders would prevent the virus from getting in unless all cross-border travel had been halted, which would have been a cure worse than the disease (so to speak).
2. Yes, the Democrats are politicizing the virus.
3. Had the Democrats not tied up Congress, especially the Senate, for months with their impeachment hoax, perhaps Congress would have been more proactive in dealing with the virus. But maybe not.
4. My understanding is that the task force is focused and has the correct people on it as far as government resources are concerned.
5. Trump has ordered the CDC to remove some of the red tape involved in getting the test kits out.

All in all, the administration is mounting a fairly good response as far as I can tell, although of course I'm not an expert.

Agree that by now, the virus has spread far enough into the general population that limiting new cases coming in across the border - whether by air or over fences - probably won't make much difference. I do credit the early transportation restrictions & quarantine measures with slowing down the start of the spreading, because those few weeks have proven to be critical, for two reasons: 1) allowing time to fix the testing situation, and 2) ensure that the height of the COVID19 epidemic won't overlap with the height of flu season, which is currently nearing its end. THAT would truly have been a disaster.

Also, if you want to find culprits for the slow test availability, don't look at Congress or the President. Number 1 is the FDA, which refused to compromise on their laborious, slow, and expensive approval process until the Trump administration forced them to back down. There are also a host of regulations throttling lab test companies like LabCorp and Quest, which could have otherwise expanded testing and turnaround speed much more quickly. They're the same regulations throttling health care in general, and you can probably credit the Obama administration for a lot of them. For this reason, the health care system today simply can't respond as fast as it did during the 1918 flu (ironically). An epidemic like that one would bring our system to its knees in no time. Finally, it's pretty clear that someone, or a group of someones, at the CDC made some mistakes. That will be an interesting story to get to the bottom of.

A few corrections to the memo that Vinny posted. First, face masks will not protect you from being infected if someone coughs into your face. They're helpful only to prevent that sick person from coughing into your face. The only mask that can protect you is the N95 respirator mask, which requires training to size and put on correctly (I have to go through a fit test every year). Otherwise, masks just give you a false sense of security.

Second, this virus can't be compared directly to flu or measles because it is MUCH less contagious. It spreads by droplet transmission, not airborne spread. There's a huge difference. Also, the virus can only survive for a few minutes on a surface like an elevator button or your hands, unlike measles which can last for hours to days. Probably the best advice is "social distancing", where you stay outside of spit, sneeze, and cough range of other people. That's what I'm doing and what I'm telling my mother and her friends in their 80s and 90s to do. No Broadway shows, crammed subway cars, or even the chamber music concert that my coop is not wanting to postpone (I told them they should). A professor that I know who holds house concerts in his apartment has cancelled them for this same reason. Good for him.

So, even if COVID19 has a higher mortality than the flu, it'll be balanced by much fewer people actually getting it. Of course we just don't know how the numbers will look in the end, and that's the big concern.

[Libertarian666]

Probably the best advice is "social distancing", where you stay outside of spit, sneeze, and cough range of other people. That's what I'm doing and what I'm telling my mother and her friends in their 80s and 90s to do. No Broadway shows, crammed subway cars, or even the chamber music concert that my coop is not wanting to postpone (I told them they should).

We're not going anywhere where there will be a lot of people until this sorts itself out.

We could theoretically avoid going to the store for several months but probably won't be that strict unless it gets a lot worse even than it looks at present. Instead, when we get low on supplies we will go to Walmart at 11 PM or midnight, and keep our distance from other people.

[dualstow]

A few corrections to the memo that Vinny posted. First, face masks will not protect you from being infected if someone coughs into your face. They're helpful only to prevent that sick person from coughing into your face. The only mask that can protect you is the N95 respirator mask, which requires training to size and put on correctly (I have to go through a fit test every year). Otherwise, masks just give you a false sense of security.

I thought the memo said the same thing. My takeaway from that was (1) masks for the the sick not the healthy (which seems to be the consensus in all news outlets and (2) people panicking and loading up on masks are depriving countries that need the masks more (which I haven't heard, but it's an interesting thought).

...
when we get low on supplies we will go to Walmart at 11 PM or midnight, and keep our distance from other people.

Where I live, shopping at that hour is far more dangerous than risking infection.

[yankees60]

I don't know if this is exactly what you mean, but a few years ago the newspaper had a photo of a young, muscular guy who died of the flu to show that, see, you don't have to be old or enfeebled to die of the flu.

Well, it sure ain't killing 20,000 young muscular guys every year.

No, but this reminds of the house sign that reads:
THIS HOUSE GUARDED BY SHOTGUN 3 NIGHTS A WEEK. YOU GUESS WHICH 3.

Obvious differences, of course. Odds. The fact that the flu is contagious.
It just seems like such a simple thing to get a flu shot. I don't know why more people don't do it, but especially at Vinny's age.

I'm not doing it and I think I'm about Vinnie's age.
If I recall correctly, almost every year during or after flu season there's a report saying "they got the wrong vaccine again so it won't protect you".

I think you might have a year on me.

Last year I read an entire book on the flu. They have to guess ahead of time (like 9-12) months which flu is going to prevail. Therefore, the success rate ranges from 25% to 75% each year.

Vinny

[yankees60]

Vinny, you could not pay me to watch women's basketball.

I wish they had all the girls games in one place and all the boys games in another place so I could just see the boys games. They start with division IV girls then division IV boys then go to the two division III pair and, finally, the two division II games (the two division 1 games were played Friday night).

When you see the two games back-to-back representing the same division (first girls than boys) the differences between girls and boys basketball are quite dramatic. The boys come out to play and you see the differences in speed, strength, skill, athleticism.

The divisions III girls came was illustrative of your point. These were the two best division II teams in all of western Massachusetts playing against one another. With 2 1/2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter (after 21 1/2 minutes of play) one of the teams had scored a grand total of 3 (!!!) points! Contrast that to the division IV boys game wherein one of the boys scored 45 points (in 36 minutes -- the game went into a 4 minute overtime).

General girl / women basketball players are good at dribbling, set shots, three pointers, playing defense, playing as a team. This carries through with the handful that I've played with and against.

We currently have a 27 year old woman who plays with us regularly. She only weighs 118 pounds and I am always amazed how much easier she can put up a three point shot than I can.

Vinny

I don't know much about women's basketball but if it's anything like track and field, my understanding is that a good high school boy's team would crush any women's team, including the Olympic winners.

There's just no comparison in athleticism between men and women.

Totally agree with you. The UConn women's team went undefeated for several seasons in a row. I used to regularly start raging arguments with the guys I play with that I could pick five of us (but certainly NOT me) and beat them.

26 years ago I saw a game between an women's team (led by a former Olympian) and an average men's league team from the woman. I felt so sorry for the women watching them play. Due to the men's superior strength and speed / quickness, the women could not get a rebound nor could they make a shot because the men were either blocking them or right on top of them when playing defense.

When I watch those back-to-back girls and boys games like I did on Saturday it's like two different types of basketball are being played.

And, here is yet another difference. Generally, when you watch males and females dancing, it's the females who are generally the far more graceful. However, when you watch them playing basketball, it is girls who are constantly stumbling and falling down while the boys are so incredibly athletic and graceful in their play.


Vinny

[Libertarian666]

A few corrections to the memo that Vinny posted. First, face masks will not protect you from being infected if someone coughs into your face. They're helpful only to prevent that sick person from coughing into your face. The only mask that can protect you is the N95 respirator mask, which requires training to size and put on correctly (I have to go through a fit test every year). Otherwise, masks just give you a false sense of security.

I thought the memo said the same thing. My takeaway from that was (1) masks for the the sick not the healthy (which seems to be the consensus in all news outlets and (2) people panicking and loading up on masks are depriving countries that need the masks more (which I haven't heard, but it's an interesting thought).

...
when we get low on supplies we will go to Walmart at 11 PM or midnight, and keep our distance from other people.

Where I live, shopping at that hour is far more dangerous than risking infection.

I don't know where you live but it's pretty safe at any hour where we live out in the boonies.

[dualstow]

Big crimey city in the Northeast, like WiseOne
---
Merkel says 60-70% of Germans will be infected.
That's a lotta Germans.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronav ... dates.html

[shekels]

Does anyone go to a public gym? What is attendance like - the same, with people being better about wiping things down? Or more sparse?

We have been going to a public gym and it has been about the same as before as far as attendance.

However, we're cocooning now until we see what is going on. Both of us are over 70, and although we are both in very good health for our ages, we're not taking a potentially deadly risk that we can avoid.

I believe most people in the U.S are going to get exposed to the Corona virus.
So Y'all take appropriate steps to get and stay healthy.
If you are at high risk you will need to be vigilant.

[Cortopassi]

Also, the virus can only survive for a few minutes on a surface like an elevator button or your hands,

Is this verified? I just read somewhere (fake panic news?) that it can also last for hours/days on surfaces.

[dualstow]

Also, the virus can only survive for a few minutes on a surface like an elevator button or your hands,

Is this verified? I just read somewhere (fake panic news?) that it can also last for hours/days on surfaces.

I read this-

Can the coronavirus live on soft surfaces like fabric or carpet? What about hard surfaces?
How long the new coronavirus can live on a soft surface — and more importantly, how easy or hard it is to spread this way — isn’t clear yet. So far, available evidence suggests it can be transmitted less easily from soft surfaces than frequently-touched hard surfaces, such as a doorknob or elevator button.

According to the WHO, coronaviruses may survive on surfaces for just a few hours or several days, although many factors will influence this, including surface material and weather.

(I purpled some text, and those are not links)
source: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as- ... 2719004#q5

[Libertarian666]

Does anyone go to a public gym? What is attendance like - the same, with people being better about wiping things down? Or more sparse?

We have been going to a public gym and it has been about the same as before as far as attendance.

However, we're cocooning now until we see what is going on. Both of us are over 70, and although we are both in very good health for our ages, we're not taking a potentially deadly risk that we can avoid.

I believe most people in the U.S are going to get exposed to the Corona virus.
So Y'all take appropriate steps to get and stay healthy.
If you are at high risk you will need to be vigilant.

We're already doing everything we can to stay healthy.
However, we are still trying to avoid getting exposed at least until the height of the crisis has passed so there will be more health resources available if we do get sick.

[pmward]

Also, the virus can only survive for a few minutes on a surface like an elevator button or your hands,

Is this verified? I just read somewhere (fake panic news?) that it can also last for hours/days on surfaces.

Yeah, everything I've read says it can survive on surfaces for up to 7 days. Also, everything I've read (and the sheer exponential growth) shows it to be incredibly more contagious than the flu. Cases are currently multiplying 10x over every 14 days. So this weekend we had 100,000 cases worldwide. At the current rate on March 28 we will be at 1,000,000 cases. On April 11 we would have 10,000,000 cases. At a complication rate of 20%, that would put 2 million people worldwide in ER's. April 25 we have 100 million cases and 20 million people in ER's. Now, I sure hope the growth rate will level off at some point before this... but this scenario isn't just possible, it's what the current trajectory is pointing towards. The flu has nothing on this. We are just now starting to get to the point in the compound equation where the absolute numbers compounding can become mind boggling real quick.

[dualstow]

I try not to keep looking at the corona numbers here - https://ncov2019.live/data
but I'm certainly not looking at my portfolio.

[Maddy]

I've been reading that it's the second exposure to the virus that may be the really lethal one due to a much increased ability to induce a cytokine storm. Does anyone know whether this is an autoimmune phenomenon?

[Maddy]

This just fries me. Not only have researchers and journalists been put under a CDC gag order, but the White House is now classifying its top-level discussions regarding CoVID-19.

Together with FASAB 56, which made it impossible to determine the whereabouts of the trillions in DOD and HUD funds that have been shuttled out the back door, you've got to wonder if we're still living in a constitutional republic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y2LM