Thank You

[Tyler]

This reminds me of any number of discussions about global warming where someone mentions "this is the warmest year in 100 years" as evidence we're all going to die soon, and all I can think is "so you're telling me it was even warmer 100 years ago and we're all still here to talk about it?"

I hear ya, Mathjak. We just have different perspectives, and I'm not inclined to crop the data at 40 years instead of 50.

[Cortopassi]

mj, what the PP allows me to do is be invested in the blue line below. I otherwise never would have been, because in my opinion if there's a market that requires a severe correction it's the blue line. 12 years of near non-stop up and to the right movement. Sure a couple blips, esp. late last year.

I am not pooh poohing being invested in the stock market. But the one thing I see all the time from people (you included) is the thinking that bonds and gold can get dumped for decades at a time, but the stock market always bounces back. Always a buying opportunity. Until it doesn't.

The media is a huge factor in this. What gets covered? Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq. Rarely hear anything about bonds, and almost never gold except for when there's a "flight to safety." Trump tweets as well, hey look at the markets, everything is just peachy as long as the stock market is going up. Nevermind almost half of Americans don't own stocks.

I hate the "another record close" coverage. Gets old. Would be more fun to watch the market drop like a rock and see people freak out while the PP buffers it or even goes up.

[mathjak107]

Actually I am not thinking in terms of equities . I am thinking that perhaps the pp is way way to interest rate sensitive for seeing a trend reversal in bond rates..

I think it may be doing the one thing Harry preached against. And that is ruling out the fact that it may be way overly bond rate sensitive for a trend like we had for 40 years ....a reversal to historical average rates in the 5-6% range over years would be killer.

Remember we are not talking fed short term rate moves ...we are talking investors bidding bond rates back towards historical averages

[mathjak107]

This reminds me of any number of discussions about global warming where someone mentions "this is the warmest year in 100 years" as evidence we're all going to die soon, and all I can think is "so you're telling me it was even warmer 100 years ago and we're all still here to talk about it?"

I hear ya, Mathjak. We just have different perspectives, and I'm not inclined to crop the data at 40 years instead of 50.

I agree , the old data is the data , it should stay ...the only question is based on modern markets and likely a 40 year drop in rates that Harry never anticipated, is the kryptonite to the pp going to be a long term trend in bond rates back up ?

I would count on the assets in the pp correlating with the economy very well ....but we are unsure of the effect of sustained rising bond rates on it just back to historical averages.. my opinion is I think caution here is a good idea . I would think twice about putting everything in the pp at this point ...I believe some should be kept in a portfolio far less interest rate sensitive just in case , like you would do a variable portfolio only this is a more conventional low risk portfolio maybe even something like Wellesley .

[Ad Orientem]

I had completely forgotten this post until our resident archivist dug it up. Re-reading it I confess to a certain sense of warm nostalgia, and sadness at the apparent departure of so many great forum members. (No plans for anything special when I hit 3000.)