Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

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Hal
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Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Hal » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:31 am

Hi All,

Just reading a book called "Aftermath" and thought I would post a comment.

Was most interested that Rickards believed that we would be entering a long term low growth environment over the next few years (assumption - not very PP like) and given that, a barbell portfolio should be held consisting of precious metals etc for inflation, bonds etc for deflation and cash. So you have three quarters of a PP already.

The book also does a nice demolition job on the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

An interesting comment near the end of the book is that at present staying in stocks/bonds now might be ok, but eventually may need to go to cash then gold/farmland if things get really out of hand. And this is where I see the PP's only failing... if the economy/currency really get in trouble, I would not want to be rebalancing out of Gold into a failing currency.
(Zimbabwe PP anyone ? )

Did HB ever mention when a PP would not be appropriate?

All comments welcome !
Hal
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by europeanwizard » Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:43 pm

Is it US-centric, or global in its narrative? Or is it rather about applying principles?

Great topic, by the way. I love me a good book review.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:45 pm

Hal, NO SPOILERS.

Just kidding. I've been looking soooooo forward to reading this book, and my local library has it on order. I just can't bring myself to pay 30 some odd dollars for the book at the moment. I am having a hard time waiting though.

I am actually a huge fan of the books of James Rickards -- though admittedly more for economic entertainment than buying 100% into his conclusions.

You know what, I may just drive to my local bookstore and just read the darn thing in the store... ;D
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Hal » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:28 pm

europeanwizard wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:43 pm
Is it US-centric, or global in its narrative? Or is it rather about applying principles?

Great topic, by the way. I love me a good book review.
What little I have read, it seems to be global in its coverage. Rickards thinks the current system will change due to the debt, and offers several guiding principles. It really is a macro overview - don't expect to find exact percentages for asset allocations, although I did see he suggested 10% Gold, 30% Cash.

In Australia it really is quite pertinent due to *massive* private housing debt and a economy only kept up by Government infrastructure spending.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by boglerdude » Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:57 pm

> The book also does a nice demolition job on the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Summary?
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:05 pm

I just finished reading the book. My local library finally added it to their catalogue.

Overall? It's a good book.

It's definitely more along the lines of what you would call financial entertainment rather than a serious book about how to protect your wealth. I don't mean that in a denigrating way, but take it for what it is.

What he refers to as the 7 secrets of wealth preservation basically lead to a very PP like portfolio. Takeaways include: having physical gold; having a barbell in your portfolio; have cash; look at alternatives such as private equity, venture capital, and even farmland. It's pretty much just that last part that has strong deviations from what most people on this forum are doing.

Some parts of the book are genuinely fascinating, such as his discussion on the concept of choice architecture. He likens the beeping sounds your car makes when you leave the lights on as the same kind of "nudge" that 401K offering forms have to steer you into saving.

Other parts of the book are a bit more suspect, such as his critique on indexing. I'm not going to say that his lamentations about indexing potentially becoming too big are invalid. Bogle, in fact, expressed similar sentiments -- but they tended to be purely on a theoretical level. Rickards is quite a bit more sensationalist.

He also goes quite in depth into Modern Monetary Theory, his criticisms, and what President Trump is likely to do before his term is up. He also, of course, talks quite a bit about gold and its role in your portfolio.

Good enough that I think I'm going to do another read through before returning it.
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:44 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:05 pm
I just finished reading the book. My local library finally added it to their catalogue.

Overall? It's a good book.

It's definitely more along the lines of what you would call financial entertainment rather than a serious book about how to protect your wealth. I don't mean that in a denigrating way, but take it for what it is.

What he refers to as the 7 secrets of wealth preservation basically lead to a very PP like portfolio. Takeaways include: having physical gold; having a barbell in your portfolio; have cash; look at alternatives such as private equity, venture capital, and even farmland. It's pretty much just that last part that has strong deviations from what most people on this forum are doing.

Some parts of the book are genuinely fascinating, such as his discussion on the concept of choice architecture. He likens the beeping sounds your car makes when you leave the lights on as the same kind of "nudge" that 401K offering forms have to steer you into saving.

Other parts of the book are a bit more suspect, such as his critique on indexing. I'm not going to say that his lamentations about indexing potentially becoming too big are invalid. Bogle, in fact, expressed similar sentiments -- but they tended to be purely on a theoretical level. Rickards is quite a bit more sensationalist.

He also goes quite in depth into Modern Monetary Theory, his criticisms, and what President Trump is likely to do before his term is up. He also, of course, talks quite a bit about gold and its role in your portfolio.

Good enough that I think I'm going to do another read through before returning it.
Just seeing this Topic for the first time.

Thanks for the review.

Just bought the Kindle version for $14.99 (and got a $3.75 credit to be used on my next "Great on Kindle" book purchase).

Vinny
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Hal wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:31 am
Hi All,

Just reading a book called "Aftermath" and thought I would post a comment.

Was most interested that Rickards believed that we would be entering a long term low growth environment over the next few years (assumption - not very PP like) and given that, a barbell portfolio should be held consisting of precious metals etc for inflation, bonds etc for deflation and cash. So you have three quarters of a PP already.

The book also does a nice demolition job on the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

An interesting comment near the end of the book is that at present staying in stocks/bonds now might be ok, but eventually may need to go to cash then gold/farmland if things get really out of hand. And this is where I see the PP's only failing... if the economy/currency really get in trouble, I would not want to be rebalancing out of Gold into a failing currency.
(Zimbabwe PP anyone ? )

Did HB ever mention when a PP would not be appropriate?

All comments welcome !
Hal
Thanks again for letting us know about this book. After first reading your above I made my first comment regarding it on Saturday and stated that I bought it.

Tonight I started reading it and got about 1/6 of the way through while eating supper.

I was not concentrating on trying to remember what I was reading but a lot that I read surprisingly has still stuck with me. From what I remember...

1) He likes gold

2) He believes that all the following presidents were globalists - Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, 2nd Bush, Obama. He may have named others in between but I'm just not remembering.

3) Stated the four greatest presidents were Washington, Lincoln, and the two Roosevelts.

4) Does not seem to be a fan of the Fed. Or, at least pointed out some major, huge negative consequential decisions they implemented.

5) Thinks Ford was a vastly underrated president with his two greatest (underrated) accomplishments being the Helsinki Accord and making it legal to once again own gold.

6) He write in an extremely entertaining style

7) For many years he worked for the CIA and part of an elite group within the CIA

8) He described the sale of the ports to Saudi Arabia wherein Senator Hillary Clinton was on one side of the issue while Bill Clinton was on the other side of the issue, working for a dictator for some country whose name I could never spell. It beings with a K. Or, I may conflating some of this stories here.

9) He gave his analysis of Uranium One and how it came to be. And, that this was the exact type of thing that should have come before his elite group in the CIA. Except somehow it was kept away from them so that they had no idea about it until it was a completed action. Stated that this was a prime example of the Clintons doing their thing.

10) Believe that Trump is our first nationalist president since Theodore Roosevelt. Except that he added that Trump is a natavist nationalist.

11) He believes that the Fed has been raising the rate progressively not for today's purposes but for the next financial crisis. The Fed needs the rate to be at least 4% for them to be able to do their part in attempting to fix a future financial crisis.

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:05 am

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/02 ... n=fredblog

Current version...(hopefully the link will work for you) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S#0

The second link did not work as I hoped, but it hasn't changed much from 2017. You can update it using the instructions from the first link.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:54 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
I believe you are correct!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Xan » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:03 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:54 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
I believe you are correct!

Vinny
Surely that's the Odyssey, though, right?
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:22 pm

Yeah, Odyssey.
But how many ocean munching whirlpool sucking monsters do they have? O0
Maybe one poem alludes to the other.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:26 pm

Xan wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:03 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:54 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
I believe you are correct!

Vinny
Surely that's the Odyssey, though, right?
I thought it was the Illiad and the Odyssey? I've already previously stated my reading is almost 100% confined to non-fiction and I was never assigned to read Homer at any time in school.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Xan » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:35 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:26 pm
Xan wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:03 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:54 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
I believe you are correct!

Vinny
Surely that's the Odyssey, though, right?
I thought it was the Illiad and the Odyssey? I've already previously stated my reading is almost 100% confined to non-fiction and I was never assigned to read Homer at any time in school.

Vinny
The Iliad is one epic poem, about the fall of Ilium, also known as Troy. The Odyssey is the sequel about Odysseus's journey back home.

Epic poetry like that kind of straddles the line between fiction and nonfiction. It's almost always in the nonfiction section of the library.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:09 pm

They're also mentioned in the Aeneid, which is about Trojans who survived the war and escaped to eventually found Rome.
"You haven't, I suppose, ever mixed with politicians at close quarters. They're awful. I think some of these must have been the dregs anyhow, but I've discovered, what previously I didn't believe possible, that politicians behave in private life and say exactly the same things as they do in public. Their stupidity is inhuman.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Xan » Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:36 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:09 pm
They're also mentioned in the Aeneid, which is about Trojans who survived the war and escaped to eventually found Rome.
It's an origin story for Rome itself! Pretty neat.

Think about this: the Aeneid is an ancient epic poem. And it was written a thousand years (a THOUSAND years) after the Iliad and the Odyssey.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:34 am

Why do financial authors all seem to have a penchant for quoting classic texts like this?

Ben Graham, too, had lots of quotes from Horace, Virgil, and the like. I believe Burton Malkiel has a few as well.
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
Checked that first page of the book and you are, indeed, correct. Not that I was doubting you. And, I'm even more impressed that you knew how to spell each of those names!

And, here is excerpt from the book describing Scylla(excuse the weird symbols that my ancient Eudora email program sometimes adds):

“In Homer’s epic poem the Odyssey, Scylla and Charybdis confront the hero, Odysseus, sailing home after the Trojan War. Scylla and Charybdis were the most feared women of Greek mythology. They lived in caves, a bowshot apart on each side of a narrow strait. Although female in nature, they were monsters. Scylla had six heads. Each mouth had rows of razor-sharp teeth that made the shark in Jaws seem tame. Her waist was shrouded with heads of baying dogs. She swam and walked on twelve snaky legs and devoured all within reach.”

Excerpt From: Rickards, James. “Aftermath.” Penguin Publishing Group, 2019-07-23T04:00:00+00:00. iBooks.
This material may be protected by copyright.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:21 am

I love Greek mythology, but those two are quite famous.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:27 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:21 am
I love Greek mythology, but those two are quite famous.
I have a memory of a book from my high school days -- Edith Hamilton - Mythology.

Correct memory?

I also seem to have a memory of reading it all or part of it and being fascinated by it.

Vinny
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:58 am

Google would tell you, but yeah, she is also famous (and easier to spell).
I remember not enjoying the hardcover of hers as a kid, but I took a really fun class in junior high (Didn't use that book), and the teacher was great at storytelling. Most satisfying class in my first 12 years of school, hands down. I wish I hadn't goofed around with my friend so much.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by boglerdude » Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:42 pm

> I wish I hadn't goofed around with my friend so much

Maybe kids should be given small investment accounts to play with...at an age earlier than 25 (which I guess is the average). Nothing focuses the mind like your own skin in the game. My interest in econ and politics doubled when faced with the prospect of losing my life's labor
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:39 pm

Tonight finished reading the book.

I give it no less than a grade of A. It is the type of book that as soon as I finish it I want to reread it but this time around in a more slow, studying fashion so as to retain and absorb more of the material.

It was not only interesting from a financial point of view but he had a fair amount of politics in it, which gave me two of my favorite reading subjects.

It did cause me tonight to buy his five other books.

Here are his proscriptions from this book:

Investment Secret #1: Tariffs and trade surpluses are back in style. Prepare for a more mercantilist world.

Investment Secret #2: Prepare for slow growth and periodic recessions for decades to come.

Investment Secret #3: Beware the hidden hand of behavioral manipulation. Watch out for nudges.

Investment Secret #4: Seek diversification away from exchange-traded markets by allocating to cash, gold, and alternatives.

Investment Secret #5: Low productivity may mean inflation . . . or deflation.

Investment Secret #6: Prepare for asset-backed currencies with physical gold.

Investment Secret #7: Allocate wealth to alternative assets.

In his conclusion he had this: "The best depiction of life after a financial collapse is found in The Mandibles, a brilliant 2016 novel by the award-winning author Lionel Shriver. The novel offers details of an economic collapse in 2029, but is mostly concerned with the lives of everyday people living in the aftermath."

He then gave much detail about that book. Anyone here read it? It caused me to also buy that book tonight and it will be one of my RARE fiction book reads.

Vinny
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:58 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:39 pm

In his conclusion he had this: "The best depiction of life after a financial collapse is found in The Mandibles, a brilliant 2016 novel by the award-winning author Lionel Shriver. The novel offers details of an economic collapse in 2029, but is mostly concerned with the lives of everyday people living in the aftermath."

He then gave much detail about that book. Anyone here read it? It caused me to also buy that book tonight and it will be one of my RARE fiction book reads.

Vinny
We did! Here. Lionel Shriver has written some damn funny articles recently too.
"You haven't, I suppose, ever mixed with politicians at close quarters. They're awful. I think some of these must have been the dregs anyhow, but I've discovered, what previously I didn't believe possible, that politicians behave in private life and say exactly the same things as they do in public. Their stupidity is inhuman.
- John Maynard Keynes
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