Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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jhogue
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by jhogue » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:53 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:35 am
yep we are selling , not buying ... we were selling everything off since we don't want to be landlords in retirement . we want only liquid , passive investments that can be sold or swapped with the click of a button .

the new rental laws in new york make being a landlord here not desirable as well . in fact if we did not get a buyer the plan was to just walk away and let the remaining apartments default back to the building , our governor really put the screws to landlords with his new laws and changed the rules in mid stream .
mathjak:

See in today's Wall Street Journal, p. A11, the article entitled "How to Kill a Housing Market."
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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mathjak107
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:53 pm

Kind of like the company that had a very low profit margin , so they planned on making it up on volume.. then they need to process many more orders and employ more people with higher expenses ,more work and less margin
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mathjak107
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:12 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:35 am
yep we are selling , not buying ... we were selling everything off since we don't want to be landlords in retirement . we want only liquid , passive investments that can be sold or swapped with the click of a button .

the new rental laws in new york make being a landlord here not desirable as well . in fact if we did not get a buyer the plan was to just walk away and let the remaining apartments default back to the building , our governor really put the screws to landlords with his new laws and changed the rules in mid stream .
the closing thankfully did take place on thursday. for the first time since 1987 i am actually tenant free ..... it is like they say about boats , the happiest days are the day you bought it and the day you sold it .....

being retired , there is nothing better to us than strictly passive investments and finally we reached the point we can do that...now the only question is what we will do with the money ... it will be a while since we are closing up the llc before making the final distribution
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by AdamA » Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:32 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:24 pm

I am looking at where each of the three investments currently are and it seems that two - stock and bonds - are at the all time highs while gold is near an all-time high. This certainly goes counter to buy high / sell low.
If you search the term "all time high" on this forum, you'll get 17 pages of results. Here is a great one from 2011 that I think answers your questions.
Gumby wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2011 10:07 am
If you look back at the past 40 years of returns of the Permanent Portfolio, you will notice that there was rarely a time when the Permanent Portfolio wasn't at its all time high. Understandably, that makes people very nervous.

To put it another way... in order to buy the PP, you must buy at least one or more asset at its all time high. Such as it is, all of us who have purchased the PP have risked purchasing at the peak. This is one of the hardest parts about jumping in, and its why so few people are able to bring themselves to do it.

But the part that nobody sees is that the potential upside of each asset is more powerful than its potential downside in a 4x25% portfolio.

The best advice I can give you is to listen to this five minute clip from Harry Browne:

https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... DoBest.mp3
I recommend listening to the clip if you want to hear it straight from he horse's mouth.
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mathjak107
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:09 am

it is not the issue of it being at a high . in this case the pp has very little history with rising rates as a trend the last 40 years ... that is my concern .

we had from the 1980's what amounted to speed bumps not trends in rising rates . it is rising rates that can be the pp's kryptonite . those who are using the pp for low volatility may be in for a much wilder ride when 3 asset classes move at once in the up or down direction . up is good but down may give the portfolio users much more of a ride then they bargained for ...TLT and GLD can be very volatile when they make 1-2% moves together and you have cash doing nothing and equities potentially down too if rates climb .

while the portfolio may still do okay i think users will have to get used to a lot more volatility as the new normal unless they adjust a bit in to intermediate term treasuries . so i think we are pretty much in uncharted waters today unlike the past and i would never go by what any asset did in the past even under similar conditions if we had them .

i will go on record here saying that my opinion is i think holding to much in long term treasuries is betting on the long shot of having negative rates here or betting on low rates to continue .. the portfolio which really is supposed to be neutral in design has ended up being a bet on low and lower rates and no longer neutral in the way assets are becoming strange bedfellows .
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by stpeter » Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:14 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:24 pm
In sum I was all set to go full into the Permanent Portfolio and was describing it to someone who then pointed out to me that all three of these were near their all time highs.

For those of you who have FULLY embraced the Permanent Portfolio and made your investment all at once can you reveal where each of the three volatile investments stood at the time of your investment? In other words, how close was each to its market high or low at the time of your investment.
Although other folks in this thread have told you "jump in, the water is fine" I'd like to provide a counterpoint. To me one of the supreme values of the PP is peace of mind. I recently completed the process of dollar cost averaging my way into the permanent portfolio over the course of 3 years. Sure, I might have missed some return, but I was completely comfortable with taking it slow and now I'm a PP investor for life. So I'd say "whatever helps you commit to the PP" is the best strategy for you to pursue.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:29 pm

There's a lot to be said for being chill as fuck.
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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mathjak107
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:28 am

stpeter wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:14 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:24 pm
In sum I was all set to go full into the Permanent Portfolio and was describing it to someone who then pointed out to me that all three of these were near their all time highs.

For those of you who have FULLY embraced the Permanent Portfolio and made your investment all at once can you reveal where each of the three volatile investments stood at the time of your investment? In other words, how close was each to its market high or low at the time of your investment.
Although other folks in this thread have told you "jump in, the water is fine" I'd like to provide a counterpoint. To me one of the supreme values of the PP is peace of mind. I recently completed the process of dollar cost averaging my way into the permanent portfolio over the course of 3 years. Sure, I might have missed some return, but I was completely comfortable with taking it slow and now I'm a PP investor for life. So I'd say "whatever helps you commit to the PP" is the best strategy for you to pursue.
Wouldn’t that logic say that you should sell everything now and start from zero again if slowly building up works so well ?
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by sophie » Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:18 am

Moving into the PP gradually from cash gives up some returns on average, but if it's easier for you to handle then that's completely justified.

Another strategy: wait until the PP as a whole goes through a negative performing couple of months and then buy in.

Whatever you do though, don't buy in one asset at a time. That can be far riskier than buying them all equally.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by ochotona » Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:26 am

sophie wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 10:18 am
Another strategy: wait until the PP as a whole goes through a negative performing couple of months and then buy in.
This is a great idea.
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:14 pm

ha ha ha , for a portfolio that is supposed to eliminate timing and the guess work , that is just what is required then to buy in if you do that ...

where is buying low ? we all thought low in 2008 was when the market fell 2000 points ..who know we had 4000 more to go ....

the problem is introducing timing can lead to the problems the portfolio is supposed to alleviate .

i mean yes that is how i would buy in , but then again i am a dirty lil market timer at heart
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Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Post by ochotona » Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:14 pm
ha ha ha , for a portfolio that is supposed to eliminate timing and the guess work , that is just what is required then to buy in if you do that ...

where is buying low ? we all thought low in 2008 was when the market fell 2000 points ..who know we had 4000 more to go ....

the problem is introducing timing can lead to the problems the portfolio is supposed to alleviate .

i mean yes that is how i would buy in , but then again i am a dirty lil market timer at heart

The issue is not the portfolio, the issue is human behavior. By transitioning into it slowly, the change is less stressful. Not everyone needs to do that kind of thing. "ha ha ha" means you're making fun of other people's psychic needs; not very mature for an older person. Hey, didn't you almost get run off from here before? {reaches for rope}
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