TIRUPUR, India — When Alan Greenspan ran a consulting firm and wanted to know where the economy was headed, he would often look at sales of men’s underwear as a guide.
Mr. Greenspan, who later served as chairman of the Federal Reserve, believed that when times were tough, men would stop replacing worn-out underwear, which no one could see, before cutting other purchases.
By that measure, India is in a serious slump.
“Sales are down 50 percent,” said Jeffrin Moses, gesturing toward the boxes of cotton briefs and tank tops bulging from the shelves of the Tantex undergarment emporium in Tirupur, the southern city where most of the country’s knitwear is made.
It’s not just underwear. Car sales plunged 32 percent in August, the largest drop in two decades, and carmakers are warning of one million layoffs as shoppers balk at rising prices and struggle to get loans from skittish lenders. Macrotech, a big real estate developer that has teamed up with President Trump on a residential tower in Mumbai, just laid off 400 employees as demand for new housing sinks...
I am trying to figure out GMO's call that EM Value will return 7% per annum over the next decade. I think it must first take a swan dive before it advances. Things are not good in the global economy.
ochotona wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:32 pm
Things are not good in the global economy.
Agreed.
I'd like to think the US can stay isolated from the rest of the world, but I'm not sure. I think it's possible pmward, InsuranceGuy, and others trip-out of equities back into Treasuries. You'll see it in real-time on the VP sub-forum!
ochotona wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:32 pm
Things are not good in the global economy.
Agreed.
I'd like to think the US can stay isolated from the rest of the world, but I'm not sure. I think it's possible pmward, InsuranceGuy, and others trip-out of equities back into Treasuries. You'll see it in real-time on the VP sub-forum!
I moved my smallish VP out of an all stock position at the end of 2017 and migrated it into VWIAX. The only other speculative position I have is in my crazy silver stack.
ochotona wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:32 pm
Things are not good in the global economy.
Agreed.
I'd like to think the US can stay isolated from the rest of the world, but I'm not sure. I think it's possible pmward, InsuranceGuy, and others trip-out of equities back into Treasuries. You'll see it in real-time on the VP sub-forum!
Ha, that is indeed a useful indicator! When you start hearing them talk about selling stocks...make sure your gold and bonds are up to snuff, sit back and enjoy the ride!
