Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Xan
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:31 pm

pmward, I think things would go much better if you could let things go. You've posted many times walls of text of technical gibberish (at least, that's how it comes across). Some people have pointed out that they don't believe in what you're doing. Why can't you leave it at that? Why can't you "ignore it and move on with your life" as you demand they do?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:05 pm

I'd like to chime in here with a link and perspective.

https://youtu.be/3EzdvkRgToY

That link is to a Yale lecture done by Robert Shiller on efficient markets. Right around the 42 minute mark he talks about technical analysis.

Shiller, tellingly, recalls a story where he presses Burton Malkiel on why A Random Walk Down Wall Street seems to be sorely lacking on sources in his technical analysis chapters. Malkiel claims that "studies" show that technical analysis doesn't work and shoots it down.

It turns out that Malkiel was being rather liberal with how he compiled his data and did a lot of, er, "extrapolation" to come to his conclusions. Shiller later concedes that when you brush aside these unfounded criticisms, he found that technical analysis wasn't quite as unfounded as people had made it out to be.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for technical analysis, but the idea being perhaps that there's at least something there...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:14 pm

Xan wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:31 pm
pmward, I think things would go much better if you could let things go. You've posted many times walls of text of technical gibberish (at least, that's how it comes across). Some people have pointed out that they don't believe in what you're doing. Why can't you leave it at that? Why can't you "ignore it and move on with your life" as you demand they do?
I have tried to exit this discussion so many times... I've said time and time again that I do not care to debate this, and that I have no interest in trying to change anyone's pre-existing beliefs. I even went so far as to give in and create an isolated thread in the VP forum for any "technical gibberish" last week to compromise. I had "moved on with my life". Then I get quoted by someone up here asking a question. Then I responded to the question I was asked thinking everything had blown over, and the torches and pitchforks come out anew from people I was not responding to. You really do not understand how frustrating this is. I honestly don't even know why I'm even still here... I really enjoyed this forum when I found it last year, and it's sad that in the last week I've been completely ostracized from the forum simply because of stating some "technical gibberish" and views that go against the typical dogma of the board. I thought this forum was a bit more open minded, or at least tolerant of opposing view. Apparently, I was very wrong in that assumption.
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Xan
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:00 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:14 pm
Xan wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:31 pm
pmward, I think things would go much better if you could let things go. You've posted many times walls of text of technical gibberish (at least, that's how it comes across). Some people have pointed out that they don't believe in what you're doing. Why can't you leave it at that? Why can't you "ignore it and move on with your life" as you demand they do?
I have tried to exit this discussion so many times... I've said time and time again that I do not care to debate this, and that I have no interest in trying to change anyone's pre-existing beliefs. I even went so far as to give in and create an isolated thread in the VP forum for any "technical gibberish" last week to compromise. I had "moved on with my life". Then I get quoted by someone up here asking a question. Then I responded to the question I was asked thinking everything had blown over, and the torches and pitchforks come out anew from people I was not responding to. You really do not understand how frustrating this is. I honestly don't even know why I'm even still here... I really enjoyed this forum when I found it last year, and it's sad that in the last week I've been completely ostracized from the forum simply because of stating some "technical gibberish" and views that go against the typical dogma of the board. I thought this forum was a bit more open minded, or at least tolerant of opposing view. Apparently, I was very wrong in that assumption.
You haven't been ostracized, you're certainly free to hold your opinion, and there are folks here who agree with you. Just don't take everything so personally. Really, go for a nice walk or something.

Fundamentally, you're on a forum primarily for people who explicitly want to avoid what you're talking about. You have to expect a little friction, no?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:05 am

PP drama xD

20% VP means you keep adding to it if it goes down. Go ahead and gamble, just call it gambling. Some poker players are better than others right

What Browne, Shiller etc think is just appeal to authority.

We cant all get PhDs in technical analysis and make money because its zero sum. Unless youre acting on economic news before the other players get it, and even that is dubious.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:38 am

What I think of technical analysis is that it works, but the machines/algorithms see the crossovers, trend line breaks, etc, a gazillion times faster than humans, so unless you have an automated system directly connected to the market like HFT firms do, you are fighting a losing battle.

Fundamental analysis is great, until it isn't, i.e. unknown events, like a company warning on earnings. Same thing on fundamentals, with HFT trading, you have zero chance of getting out fast enough when something like this happens and the machines read the headlines.

So I choose not to play with individual stocks anymore. I say more power to you if you can and be successful at it. But I am in the same camp with Sophie; my bet would be is if we were to revisit this 15 years from now when you are 52 the likely situation is you will have stopped trying at some point because it wasn't turning a profit, or the stress and time in turning a profit wasn't worth it. And I'll be 67. Holy f&*k

This forum is a fun diversion with interesting people, and most are very polite.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:02 am

MediumTex had a practice of saying, “I’m buying Intel today”, or whichever stock. That was fun, and refreshingly honest, and we could follow along to see how he was doing based on his date of announcement. Everything else just feels like stocks are ready to go down, but then again they might not for a certain period of time and then they will go down..maybe, with no real takeaway.

To be able to follow along in real time with a specific selection starting on a known date and therefore price is a nice diversion from the highly reliable but boring pp.
Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:05 pm
I'd like to chime in here with a link and perspective.

https://youtu.be/3EzdvkRgToY

That link is to a Yale lecture done by Robert Shiller on efficient markets. Right around the 42 minute mark he talks about technical analysis.

Shiller, tellingly, recalls a story where he presses Burton Malkiel on why A Random Walk Down Wall Street seems to be sorely lacking on sources in his technical analysis chapters.
...
I really admire Robert Shiller, so that means something to me, Smithers. Not that I would attempt analysis on my own anytime soon. If anything, I would use my relative’s newsletter that has a whole team of full-time quants behind it.
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:38 am
What I think of technical analysis is that it works, but the machines/algorithms see the crossovers, trend line breaks, etc, a gazillion times faster than humans, so unless you have an automated system directly connected to the market like HFT firms do, you are fighting a losing battle.
We should take all that computing power and focus it on modeling weather & climate like they do in Japan.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:44 pm

There are many technical indicators, but I really don't understand why people would consider simple techniques like trading using the 200 day moving average to be "zero sum games". They're clearly not, they've worked for a very long time, as long as people have had equity markets. Might they not work any longer? Of course. But what would that mean? It would mean that markets would have to become and stay "trendless".. which means what? They flatline forever? That's like saying no more nighttime.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:12 pm

boglerdude wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:05 am
20% VP means you keep adding to it if it goes down.
That's correct. If you're using HB's method, you don't keep a certain percentage of your wealth in the VP bucket. Otherwise, it's just another leg of the PP. You have to keep them separate, and only rebalance within each bucket. So you would only add non-investment income to the VP, like wages.
Go ahead and gamble, just call it gambling. Some poker players are better than others right
*shrug*
It's clearly not gambling. But it's also not allocating. Buying stock in individual companies is closer to the traditional meaning of "investing" than buying a mutual fund is. I think most people nowadays understand investing to mean that you have some savings that you're trying to get a higher rate of return on somehow, as opposed to letting it sit in a checking account. But like dualstow said earlier, it's kinda semantics to argue what word you should use. Just say how you're doing it and duke it out.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:14 pm

BTW I like hearing what Shiller has to say too. You can watch some of his Financial Markets lectures online.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:31 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:12 pm
boglerdude wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:05 am
20% VP means you keep adding to it if it goes down.
That's correct. If you're using HB's method, you don't keep a certain percentage of your wealth in the VP bucket. Otherwise, it's just another leg of the PP. You have to keep them separate, and only rebalance within each bucket. So you would only add non-investment income to the VP, like wages.
[\quote]


I guess different people handle it differently, right? You raise an interesting question. If the vp is “money you can afford to lose” (Harry’s words) do you replenish that once you lose it?

Most brains that choose a vp in the first place must get the itch to try again, unless they were lucky enough to really get badly burned early on.

If you actually made money in the vp from the beginning, you can always trim down to X%.

But when you say “you would only add-non-investment income to the VP”, it’s still money that could have been pp investment capital. Isn’t that another leg as well? A phantom limb?

Anyway, you just made me realize that I don’t know my own rules for my own vp. Most of it is quietly paying dividends and interest, but I should probably pay stricter attention to what share of the total it constitutes.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:55 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:31 pm
I guess different people handle it differently, right? You raise an interesting question. If the vp is “money you can afford to lose” (Harry’s words) do you replenish that once you lose it?

But when you say “you would only add-non-investment income to the VP”, it’s still money that could have been pp investment capital. Isn’t that another leg as well? A phantom limb?
I was referring to the wages that Harry said you can't re-earn. His point was that since you can't re-earn the wages, you shouldn't treat them haphazardly by throwing them away on speculative investments. I think his phrasing was that "your earned income is the source of your wealth" or something like that. So it's the fountainhead, not another leg.

I'm pretty sure he explicitly said do not transfer from the PP to the VP. If you screw up or get unlucky and your VP goes into the toilet, that's the way it goes, you just have less VP. Your PP is firewalled off from those losses.
If you actually made money in the vp from the beginning, you can always trim down to X%.

Anyway, you just made me realize that I don’t know my own rules for my own vp. Most of it is quietly paying dividends and interest, but I should probably pay stricter attention to what share of the total it constitutes.
Yup, you can take some winnings off the table. Or you can keep plowing them back into it. In my tax-deferred bucket I am exclusively stocks, because my intent is to let it keep it compounding until I'm 59.5. So if it does really well and constitutes a larger % of my total assets, that's fine with me. And if that turns out to be a bad strategy in a few decades.... hey, that's how she rolls.
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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