The Bond Dream Room

[ochotona]

So personally, in my GB if on a DCA day bonds were my lowest asset, I would still put fresh cash into them even at the top of the channel. Now, that obviously hasn't happened in some time as bonds have rallied like crazy so most of my fresh money has been going into cash and stocks (ugh those small caps in particular, if anything the small caps are the asset that I'm loathe to be holding at the moment as technically they just have not a single sign of life going on; I'm very tempted to start moving some of these over to REIT's but selling an asset low to buy an asset high is something I find hard to pull the trigger on).

The weird thing is, and it's 100% in my head, once I have owned an asset "for a few months", I don't care what it does, but if it goes against me right after I buy it, I take it hard. In other words, there is a lag time until the Endowment Effect takes hold in my brain. Have you noticed the same?

[pmward]

So personally, in my GB if on a DCA day bonds were my lowest asset, I would still put fresh cash into them even at the top of the channel. Now, that obviously hasn't happened in some time as bonds have rallied like crazy so most of my fresh money has been going into cash and stocks (ugh those small caps in particular, if anything the small caps are the asset that I'm loathe to be holding at the moment as technically they just have not a single sign of life going on; I'm very tempted to start moving some of these over to REIT's but selling an asset low to buy an asset high is something I find hard to pull the trigger on).

The weird thing is, and it's 100% in my head, once I have owned an asset "for a few months", I don't care what it does, but if it goes against me right after I buy it, I take it hard. In other words, there is a lag time until the Endowment Effect takes hold in my brain. Have you noticed the same?

When I was trading I used to big time. I was a swing trader, so my goal was usually one week to couple month hold. What used to kill me is when I would buy something and it would close the first day down from my purchase price. Since I've moved away from trading into the GB I do not find this particularly bothersome. I think it also helps that I'm DCA'ing every 2 weeks, so I've got money going in so often to so many assets that I just pay less attention. Small caps though have been frustrating me lately. Seeing them obviously in a downtrend with no hope of life anytime in the near future has really tested my patience. Matter of fact, F it, I'm just going to do it. I'm going to move half my small cap VP over to REIT's. I did some research and the DFA REIT available in my 401k has a 4.3% yield and has been holding up nicely during the recent volatility. In my IRA I can buy any REIT ETF I want. So I think I'm going to pull the trigger. I just have no real hope for small caps in the next couple years at least. So reducing that to 10% and adding 10% REIT's seems like a decent tactical move for the next little while, at least until this unpredictable volatility gets sorted out and small caps start a new uptrend.

[pmward]

And it is done. Current target allocation 20% TSM, 20% long bonds, 20% cash (or equivalent), 10% Small cap blend (S&P 600 preference where possible), 10% REIT. I feel much better now. So you all can officially sell REIT's to buy small caps now, since this is of course likely going to blow up in my face, hahaha.

[sophie]

Just checked the portfolio, and I'm not even close to hitting a rebalance band. Darn the PP for being so stable! On the other hand stocks haven't really dropped by much.

pmward, look out for the constantly shifting target allocation game. It's market timing in disguise and will get you to the same place, which is about a 95% chance of underperforming a passive strategy in the long run.

[flyingpylon]

What I find irritating is when an asset class has a run that brings you to within a percentage point or two of a rebalancing band but you hesitate to avoid pulling the trigger too soon, and then it retreats. It happened to me with stocks and now I'm mentally preparing myself for it to happen again with bonds or gold.

Of course you only know about that if you're checking frequently enough to notice.

[Kbg]

Perhaps we overthink this too much, most studies indicate rebalancing doesn’t make a huge difference one way or another and if you peel the skin back you quickly realize rebalancing strategy winners and losers are a function of path dependency.

So what is concrete and knowable (or can be knowable) with a little bit of effort?

Tax impact

Trading costs

The latter isn’t really that big a deal anymore unless you are doing it frequently.

Conclusion: If you are in a tax deferred account and you’ve considered trading costs, if it makes you feel better and more able to stick with your strategy, pull the trigger.

[dualstow]

Perhaps we overthink this too much

I overthink just enough

[ochotona]

WOLF THINKS WE'RE ALL GETTING PLAYED BY THE BOND PLAYERS

https://youtu.be/irsgR3u256E

We've gotten played before... why not now? What if this recession talk is partly just bond traders talking their book and jawboning yield down? The hard data is slowing, but we're not in a recession.

And then this comes to mind again and again...

What if Trump just needs low rates so he can service his own business debt? Occam's Razor, people.. the man is greedy, self-serving son-of-a-binch. He frickin' was marketing Doral the other day in press conferences!

[Smith1776]

One thing that I really love about the PP is how it makes it so that I don't have to think about interest rates, yield curve inversion, credit risk, or anything of the sort.

A while ago I was talking to a few coworkers and they kept trying to game up strategies and discuss what the yield curve and interest rate environment meant for their investment approaches. Naturally, everyone had their own opinion. People wanted to dial down their duration. Then all of the sudden there was lamentation that the long bonds were actually outperforming. But was it now too late?

With the PP we can just sit back and relax.

Yes, I'm guilty of tinkering with the stock allocation as per my latest post in the stock scream room, but I'm cool as a cucumber in most respects.

[Kriegsspiel]

WOLF THINKS WE'RE ALL GETTING PLAYED BY THE BOND PLAYERS

https://youtu.be/irsgR3u256E

I like that guys voice. He does a great job aping El-Erian's speech impediment

What if Trump just needs low rates so he can service his own business debt? Occam's Razor, people.. the man is greedy, self-serving son-of-a-binch. He frickin' was marketing Doral the other day in press conferences!

Wouldn't the simplest explanation be that Trump just wants the economy to be ok during his tenure? I would think the fact that he's a businessman would add weight to that explanation. So even if he is greedy and self-serving (which both seem true), his interests are aligned with America's, right? Or at the least, he's kicking the can down the road like everyone else excepting Volcker. Am I missing something?

[pmward]

WOLF THINKS WE'RE ALL GETTING PLAYED BY THE BOND PLAYERS

https://youtu.be/irsgR3u256E

We've gotten played before... why not now? What if this recession talk is partly just bond traders talking their book and jawboning yield down? The hard data is slowing, but we're not in a recession.

The U.S. treasury bond market is simply too large and too liquid to be manipulated like that. I mean, even the Fed has a hard time controlling the bond market. No we are not in a recession, but defensives like bonds usually rally BEFORE the recession. Matter of fact, it's usually after the yield curve begins to steepen that the recession is officially declared. We have not had a steepening yet. So yes, it makes total sense that we are not declared to be in a recession yet. There are so many deflationary pressures globally, and global central banks that keep pushing rates lower and lower. The U.S. has no choice but to ease, because not easing is essentially tightening when the rest of the world keeps going more and more negative. This is what is really pushing our yields down, it's more of a global phenomenon than anything else. And as much as I do believe a recession is coming in the short to medium term, I also would not be surprised if it didn't come, and if this whole inversion was simply led by foreigners chasing yield. I do not think the bond rally is overdone just yet. I think we still have a lot of room for a true blowoff top to end the almost 40 year old bull market. 30 year bond sub 1% would not surprise me at all by the time this whole cycle is said and done. Matter of fact, I would be surprised if we didn't get below 1% by the end of the cycle.

Let us not also forget that the large amount of government debt that we have pretty much guarantees that the Fed needs to keep rates artificially low. So, even though bonds have come a long way, there is a very limited downside potential. For now, the Fed still has our backs, so bonds are still a safe trade and there is nothing to worry about aside from AT MOST maybe a short term correction. So long story short, I do not think that your fears are justified. The real risk to bonds is if/when inflation actually starts to pick up, because the Fed will be forced to keep rates low to allow servicing of the debt, and that will cause some chaos and destruction. But I do not see inflation in the near term, especially with the trade war, which even though it does increase prices, it is a tax, and taxes at the end of the day have a tightening effect on the economy.

[ochotona]

Wouldn't the simplest explanation be that Trump just wants the economy to be ok during his tenure? I would think the fact that he's a businessman would add weight to that explanation. So even if he is greedy and self-serving (which both seem true), his interests are aligned with America's, right? Or at the least, he's kicking the can down the road like everyone else excepting Volcker. Am I missing something?

Yes, a President's personal fortune should absolutely 100% be aligned with that of the Nation. I would go so far as to say his or her portfolio should be like Jack Bogle's was, 100% USA domestic. Nothing ex-US. Aligned with the USA, but no hint, fear, or even possibility that the portfolio should ever be seeking special situations created by the President himself while in office, especially which pit one group of investors against another.

The thing missing is that Trump refused to place his assets in a blind trust before he took office as Presidents before him have done, therefore he didn't create a firewall which prevents even the appearance of conflict of interest. As any corporate communications manager / crisis manager will tell you, the very appearance of wrong-doing can be as bad as the actual fact. The appearance can damage a brand or company even in the absence of any actual wrong-doing.

So once again, Trumpster harvests more bitter self-sown fruit, then basically blames others for the astringent taste. This idea is all over social media, and he is profiting off of his tweets through proxies. I am sure we'll hear more from the SEC after he leaves office. They've got to be quietly archiving trade data just before and after major tweets and tantrums and looking for patterns and network associations. That's what they do.

I want to know to whom he really owes money. Which NY mobsters? Which Russian mobsters? But he refused to disclose his portfolio and tax returns, as other Presidents have done. What has he been hiding? Really, for God's sake. I'll tell everyone here what I own, by % basis. In fact, I have. Why can't the President? He can't it would be incriminating.

[Kriegsspiel]

The thing missing is that Trump refused to place his assets in a blind trust before he took office as Presidents before him have done, therefore he didn't create a firewall which prevents even the appearance of conflict of interest. As any corporate communications manager / crisis manager will tell you, the very appearance of wrong-doing can be as bad as the actual fact. The appearance can damage a brand or company even in the absence of any actual wrong-doing.

So once again, Trumpster harvests more bitter self-sown fruit, then basically blames others for the astringent taste. This idea is all over social media, and he is profiting off of his tweets through proxies. I am sure we'll hear more from the SEC after he leaves office. They've got to be quietly archiving trade data just before and after major tweets and tantrums and looking for patterns and network associations. That's what they do.

What are the best examples of Trump manipulating and profiting? Maybe you have some bookmarked?

[Kriegsspiel]

And I do want to add that I'd be super surprised if Trump wasn't doing something shady. I think pretty much every President in recent history has done shady shit while in office and outside of it.

[ochotona]

And I do want to add that I'd be super surprised if Trump wasn't doing something shady. I think pretty much every President in recent history has done shady shit while in office and outside of it.

Of course, I have no proof. No one does, because it's all hidden. But there is such a yuuuge opportunity for him (or any world leader) to profit off of market-moving statements and actions. That is why it is important for the American President to even be above the appearance of wrongdoing, to be so transparent that even suspicion by the reasonably skeptical opposition is impossible.

The assets have to be in a blind trust. Totally locked-up, passive, untradeable, 100% Total USA Stock Market buy and hold until out of office, live or die with the rest of us. Does anyone disagree with that?

[Ad Orientem]

The thing missing is that Trump refused to place his assets in a blind trust before he took office as Presidents before him have done, therefore he didn't create a firewall which prevents even the appearance of conflict of interest. As any corporate communications manager / crisis manager will tell you, the very appearance of wrong-doing can be as bad as the actual fact. The appearance can damage a brand or company even in the absence of any actual wrong-doing.

So once again, Trumpster harvests more bitter self-sown fruit, then basically blames others for the astringent taste. This idea is all over social media, and he is profiting off of his tweets through proxies. I am sure we'll hear more from the SEC after he leaves office. They've got to be quietly archiving trade data just before and after major tweets and tantrums and looking for patterns and network associations. That's what they do.

What are the best examples of Trump manipulating and profiting? Maybe you have some bookmarked?

Well he is constantly promoting his resorts and taking VIP visitors there, at huge expense to taxpayers (and profit to the Trump Org). When he first took office China suddenly approved scores of trademarks and other concessions related to Trump, his family and businesses. My guess is that they may be experiencing a bad case of buyers regret right now. Its common knowledge that those who patronize his businesses get preferred treatment or access in his administration. A quick Google turned up endless cases of apparent self dealing and/or apparent conflicts of interest. He is facing scores of lawsuits including some he has settled for undisclosed amounts of money. His charity the Trump Foundation was basically a tax dodge and scam where he routinely used money for personal indulgences. The state of NY shut it down. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that this is the most corrupt president in US History.

[flyingpylon]

I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that this is the most corrupt president in US History.

Which criteria should be used to determine "the most corrupt president in US history" and which should be ignored?

Your post is filled with phrases like "common knowledge", "a quick Google", "apparent" and "basically"... do those seem like reasonable standards by which to determine the most corruption?

Does the mere existence of lawsuits or settled lawsuits indicate corruption?

[dualstow]

(Quote is from Gold Scream, not here)

Gold and long Treasuries will be under assault for a while...

The fed is lining up another small rate cut, but I guess other factors are weightier right now.

[ochotona]

Ridiculous Fact: EE Savings Bonds Are A Stellar Investment

[ochotona]

Japanification, that's why.

[jhogue]

The key question for potential EE bond investors this:

Do you have a 20 year plan for your money? If you don’t, then you should never buy EE bonds. If you do have a 20 year plan (or longer), then EE bonds might have a useful role in your portfolio.

Pugchief’s worry that rates may rise above 4.00% reminds me of the warnings I got from “professional” financial advisors not to buy 30 year T bonds when I shifted to the HBPP back in 2013: The conventional wisdom then—and now too—was that interest rates "have no place to go but up!"

[ochotona]

Given my age, I can only really buy $30,000 of these things, I own none now. 2019, 2020, 2021 then I turn 60 in 2021. I don't mind betting on really low inflation risk with less than 2% of my portfolio. If I'm wrong, no great harm done. If the 30 year goes stays at 2%, I'm happy. It'll just be more deep cash.

[jhogue]

I certainly do not consider EE bonds to be “a pointless waste.” A couple of specific, real world examples:

1. The EE bonds we used to pay for our daughter’s college back in 2007-2011 paid 6% p.a. and were both federal tax free and tax deferred. The accumulated interest was also exempt from all state and local taxes. Considering how badly the stock market crashed in 2008-2009, I was pretty happy with our EE bonds’ return ON principal as well as their return OF principal.

2. The current crop of EE bonds, which will return 3.53% if held for 20 years, were first offered in 2003. They achieve their doubling effect less than four years from now in 2023. I see no indication that those who invested in EE bonds then are unhappy with their performance now. Indeed, with 10 years currently at 1.55%; 20 years at 1.83%; and 30 year T bonds hovering around 2.00%, if anything, EE bond investors are a pretty smug bunch right now.

EE bonds are just another tool in the financial toolbox. You just have to make sure you are using the right tool for the right job.

[dualstow]

I’m glad for this thread. i have a bunch of these that I’m supposed to redeem and i keep putting it off and forgetting about them. I-bonds, too.

[jhogue]

You are welcome.

And fortunately we have MangoMan around to keep us on our toes by keeping up to date on our US savings bonds, which, quite literally, have no place to go but up.

It sort of reminds me of the children's story "The Little Engine That Could":
Starting out is a lot of "I think I can... I think I can... I think I can...." To be finally followed by "I knew I could... I knew I could... I knew I could...."