Ray Dalio: The Three Big Issues and the 1930s Analogue

[Ad Orientem]

Dalio's latest which I am not sure I altogether agree with. But it can be read here...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/three-bi ... i5hA%3D%3D

[Smith1776]

Dalio is such a smart man, and he deserves to be listened to just as much as any other financial authority, yet people often discount his perspectives.

You know who apparently really listens to Dalio? The Chinese financial community. It's strange: Dalio's own countrymen are somewhat deaf to his views, but the Chinese are not.

[boglerdude]

His shtick is "cycles" but Australia hasn't had a recession in 30 years

[ochotona]

His shtick is "cycles" but Australia hasn't had a recession in 30 years

Because China. A once in 500 years favorable Black Swan event.

[pmward]

Dalio is such a smart man, and he deserves to be listened to just as much as any other financial authority, yet people often discount his perspectives.

You know who apparently really listens to Dalio? The Chinese financial community. It's strange: Dalio's own countrymen are somewhat deaf to his views, but the Chinese are not.

Chinese investors are known to be more patient and long term oriented. I mean, look at how many real estate investors they have that don't even rent out the property, just own it and let it sit vacant for years. U.S. investors on the other hand are as impatient and short term focused as it gets.I don't know about you, but I sure don't have the patience for that. Dalio, like Chinese investors, happens to keep the long view. He is usually always looking years out. So his views will never be popular in the U.S. for anything other than discussion fodder, even though he does seem to eventually be proven right quite often. His views just tend to always go beyond the attention span of the average American investor.

[boglerdude]

> Because China. A once in 500 years favorable Black Swan event

So Dalio would say theres a 500 year ultra-long term debt cycle. Bull markets don't die of old age, usually real world events. War, supply shocks. But to make his "economic machine" sine waves pretty, he asserts short term cycles are 5 years, and long term 70 (WW2?)
Because we "overdo it" And apparently just all of us Americans, at the same time