The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Xan
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Xan » Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:07 pm

Is there really a difference between buying fresh and holding? (I'm assuming transaction fees are negligible.)
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:38 pm

Oh yeah, they are up an average of 135% not including the dividend payments. No match for the S&P I’m sure, but the dividends are serving their purpose.
pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:26 am
dualstow wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:51 pm
Hmm. I’ve been holding dividend-raising stocks since forever, and while I don’t consider that to be speculation, I have to acknowledge all the news reports of people piling into these stocks for yield, setting them up for a big fall. Maybe it’s time to trim, but I have held them through other crashes.

It’s good to get paid while you wait.
I personally wouldn't worry about it if I had already purchased them long ago and had a large profit. I mean, they may be close to paying for themselves by now. However, I wouldn't personally throw fresh cash into these at the moment. Dividend stocks and large cap tech are the two sub-types of stocks that have accounted for most of the gains since 2008. Every time the cycle turns the bear market does hit the winners of the past bull harder than the rest, and the last bull winners rarely are the new bull winners. Just some food for thought.
Dow down 600+ points. Gold- well, see AdamSmith’s post in the gold scream rm
one of the cnbc guys I dislike just said you can track silver to the President’s tweets
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:44 pm

Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:07 pm
Is there really a difference between buying fresh and holding? (I'm assuming transaction fees are negligible.)
The transaction fees are free these days, or $2 if I trade too much, which I don’t. Back when I started, though, they were a bit pricey. Just a few trades a year back then.

As for the first question, which I guess is a response to pmward, I think it’s largely psychological/“mental accounting.”
What is different, though, is the tax bill. To hold on means no taxes (even on the dividends). To sell would be expensive, although I do get rid of one now and then, tax bill be damned. If the dividend stalls, I consider selling, and if the dividend is cut, I always sell.

Though these are in the vp, I pay attention to the stock/bond ratio there, too.
Dow down 600+ points. Gold- well, see AdamSmith’s post in the gold scream rm
one of the cnbc guys I dislike just said you can track silver to the President’s tweets
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:56 am

Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:07 pm
Is there really a difference between buying fresh and holding? (I'm assuming transaction fees are negligible.)
In a dividend ETF yes, simply because it will eventually pay for itself. I mean if you're holding shares that have paid out 80% of their purchase value, not including massive capitol gains over the last decade, who cares if they drop 50 or 60%? Especially since they will keep paying their dividend. One could definitely sell and route the capital to something with more upside / less downside, but generally speaking the people that purchase dividend ETF's tend to do so for a specific reason (the dividend), so I think that selling would not be necessary especially since bond yields are so weak right now (and probably going lower). Fixed income is turning into fixed expense. So there isn't a lot of other options for people that want income right now.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:12 pm

And TLT is now less than $1 from it's all-time high. My did that escalate quickly!
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:24 pm

TLT is kinda nuts. I have a tight trailing stop alarm, I might sell some and try to re-buy it lower... just for fun
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:09 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:24 pm
TLT is kinda nuts. I have a tight trailing stop alarm, I might sell some and try to re-buy it lower... just for fun
Yeah, this is strange, to have gold and bonds skyrocketing like this, and stocks surprisingly holding up. Part of me says something has to give, one of these has to pullback. Stocks are starting to get volatile so I'm thinking it's going to be them. But man, who knows. All markets are simply nuts right now. Sense left the building long ago.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:51 pm

My portfolio is up 0.36% today. On a bad stock day like today, I'm not complaining, but I wonder where it goes from here...
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pugchief » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:03 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:24 pm
TLT is kinda nuts. I have a tight trailing stop alarm, I might sell some and try to re-buy it lower... just for fun
Interestingly, Decision Moose switched this weekend from GLD to EDV but, because long bonds are so overbought, deferred to cash.

http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:05 pm

It’s timely that Medium Tex came by.
I can’t remember what year it was, but I was in a hotel watching massive fires in Birmingham (UK) on TV, and gold and bonds were way up. Regarding the low long bond yields, Medium Tex said “this is when a game of tennis becomes a game of ping pong.”
Well, it feels like ping pong time again.
Dow down 600+ points. Gold- well, see AdamSmith’s post in the gold scream rm
one of the cnbc guys I dislike just said you can track silver to the President’s tweets
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:21 pm

And we officially have the 2nd highest closing ever for TLT. On Jul 8 2016 we closed at 143.60, and that is the only date with a higher close. And it is up after hours. Insanity.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:37 pm

In the spirit of technovelist, I'd like to take credit for this boom in bonds, as I sold a few immediately prior to the huge jumps recently. That is all, you're welcome.
To die, to sleep;
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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