The GOLD scream room

[Libertarian666]

$1453 on Kitco.

[ochotona]

Stock futures are dumping now also. Bonds and gold tomorrow for sure.

[Libertarian666]

New 6 year high over $1460.

[Cortopassi]

If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.

[ochotona]

If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.

If we are looking at a major market decline, it won't go in a straight line. We'll go to December lows, then have a blistering rally, some will get sucked back in... but it will fail, and then after some more thrashing, it will go below December lows. Then another heroic rally, and so on. The true capitulation will come much later. Below 2015 highs, for example.

[pmward]

Yeah I also am of the mind that a correction in stocks is likely coming. How large of a correction, and when I'm not sure. But we are getting close to that ominous September/October timeframe and stocks are definitely sitting on shaky ground at the moment. We just lost that 2880 support level that signaled the start of the last correction back in the fall. I'm not really sure that anything other than a trade war deal that eliminates all tariffs, and another rate cut in September (with dovish forward guidance) could save this market. And I think the odds of both are slim. I also have doubts that a 25bp cut would be enough to really bull up the market. I think we would need at least another 50bp taken off to really wake up the animal spirits enough to really drive the market significantly higher. Otherwise, I think we are bound to either correct in the near future, or stagnate and chop sideways for a long while before eventually resolving one way or the other. That's my prognostication at least. I'm a big fan of gold and bonds in the short term.

[ochotona]

... or stagnate and chop sideways for a long while before eventually resolving one way or the other. That's my prognostication at least. I'm a big fan of gold and bonds in the short term.

So here's something that will scare lots of people on this board, but who knows?

1. cash at 0%
2. gold chops around here
3. even while cash at 0%, long bond rates go up... steepening the yield curve
4. stocks stagnate and chop sideways

[dualstow]

I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.

[ochotona]

I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.

If they do a 1989-style Tienanmen suppression, who knows?

[Cortopassi]

I wonder what China is going to do about Hong Kong and how that will affect gold.

If they do a 1989-style Tienanmen suppression, who knows?

God, I hope that can't still happen 30 years later. I know it can, but jeez. That's a yeah, great, I own gold scenario, but what good is it if the world goes to shit.

[Cortopassi]

And for posterity's sake, when some poster a few months or years from now posts here saying how much gold sucks, why should I own it:

Don't know about you guys but my PP even to slightly up today. Again, I wish I found this allocation 30 years ago.

[Kbg]

Poor Budd...

[dualstow]

You don’t need any gurus, Corto.
If you meet the Buddha on the road, kill him.

[Libertarian666]

$1486 on Kitco, up another $13 today.

I told you this would happen because I've been selling a bit of my holdings.

[drumminj]

$1486 on Kitco, up another $13 today.

I told you this would happen because I've been selling a bit of my holdings.

Thank you for taking one for the team! It's just paper gains, but it still feels good right now...

[Don]

If mathjak or budd are lurking, what are your thoughts now looking at the one year returns below? Seems gold is maybe finally having its day after a very, very, very long wait. And bonds are smoking.

I don't obviously see what changes how things are looking at least short term. It doesn't feel like there will be some snapback stock rally, that Trump or Mnuchin or someone else has much ability anymore to come out and move markets in a positive sense. I think they've all been called out.

I suspect mathjak and budd will get back in after another $500 increase in the gold price, then watch it drop or stagnate for a couple of years, then go away mad again.

That's the way it tends to go with the Permanent Portfolio. If you can't tolerate a slow more or less steady increase, you will jump in and out of gold at just the wrong time.

They can't answer because they were both banned.

[stuper1]

Banned for good reason, as I recall.

[Ad Orientem]

It's about half past midnight here and gold is within spitting distance of $1500.

[Smith1776]

I'd bet decent money that either of them may have created new accounts heh.

Regardless, it's times like this where I find it interesting that no one on the Bogleheads forum is even making a peep about gold. The amount of handwaving and contortion there is funny.

The true portfolio balance of the PP never ceases to amaze me.

[Libertarian666]

I'd bet decent money that either of them may have created new accounts heh.

Regardless, it's times like this where I find it interesting that no one on the Bogleheads forum is even making a peep about gold. The amount of handwaving and contortion there is funny.

The true portfolio balance of the PP never ceases to amaze me.

They have excellent arguments against including gold in a portfolio. Here are the strongest ones:

1. You can't eat it, whereas stock certificates make a great salad!
2. It doesn't pay dividends or interest, whereas Berkshire Hathaway... um, never mind that!
3. It's a "barbarous relic" according to Keynes... although he didn't say that.

So you can see why they don't want to include it!

[Libertarian666]

$1486 on Kitco, up another $13 today.

I told you this would happen because I've been selling a bit of my holdings.

Thank you for taking one for the team! It's just paper gains, but it still feels good right now...

I really did take one for the team. I've sold off more than 10% of my gold in the last 12 months, at prices around $1400.
However, early last year I cashed in another asset and bought gold with the proceeds, at about $1350.
So I still have more gold than I did a couple of years ago.

[Libertarian666]

$1500 in the rear view mirror.

[ochotona]

$1500 in the rear view mirror.

Thank you for selling!

[dualstow]

Please sell some more, tech. I’m finally at breakeven today, but feeling greedy.

[Libertarian666]

Please sell some more, tech. I’m finally at breakeven today, but feeling greedy.

I’m selling silver right this minute. Does that work for you?