What's going on with silver?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11787
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:50 pm

Stumbled upon this thread looking for something else.
Buried Treasure

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=68438
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11787
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:44 am

$15.07, not so great.
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:31 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:44 am
$15.07, not so great.
The glass is always half full. If it drops below $15 oz I am going to buy some more.
User avatar
Mike59
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:07 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Mike59 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:01 pm

kitco close 2019/04/24: $15.00
currently sits at $14.94

Problem with silver is that I love it, and you're not supposed to fall in love with investments right? :-[ I still have too much from the $20-50 era and added it to my PP as along term holding so the losses aren't realized. Have done much better buying platinum in the last year in the VP, which is finally getting a nice bounce, I bought about 3x more PPLT than I have silver and I think I'll make up for the silver mistakes with it.

My back up the truck price on silver is $12.50/oz, which would be about 75% off all time highs. Right now the gold stocks are priced at that discount level and that's what I"m buying precious-metals-wise for my VP.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed May 01, 2019 3:21 pm

Silver is getting hammered. Current spot is $14.68 and the silver gold ratio is now 87:1. Time to go shopping.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11787
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Wed May 01, 2019 3:40 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 3:21 pm
Silver is getting hammered. Current spot is $14.68 and the silver gold ratio is now 87:1. Time to go shopping.
Hammered copper can also be beautiful. O0
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Mon May 06, 2019 3:18 am

Gold up, silver and oil down after Tariff Individual One speaks. The next true recession is going to put silver into the basement.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3808
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by mathjak107 » Mon May 06, 2019 4:11 am

we saw that in 2008 when gold was up and silver plunged just like all the other commodities .
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Tue May 14, 2019 9:48 pm

This is amazing... a FB memory popped up for me from 2011.

May 7, 2011 at 7:26 AM ·
"About a week or two ago I told a young fellow that silver was going hyperbolic, to sell his silver holdings. I don't think he listened to me."

I don't even remember who I might have spoken to. I don't remember even caring about silver eight years ago. It's like I've been sleepwalking through my own life. Gah.

On May 6 2011, silver was $35.62.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri May 17, 2019 8:53 am

Silver Gold price ratio is closing in on 90:1.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11787
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri May 17, 2019 10:28 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:53 am
Silver Gold price ratio is closing in on 90:1.
Damnit, Jon, you're tempting me to buy! And I do absolutely nothing with this stuff except surprise a few restaurant servers and nieces/nephews. Terrible investment, the physical stuff.
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Sat May 18, 2019 7:08 am

Andrew Hecht wrote on Seeking Alpha:

"As the quarterly chart highlights, the range over the past forty-five years has been from 15.47 to 93.18 with an average of 54.325. When the price relationship moves below 55:1, silver tends to be historically expensive compared to the price of gold. The last time the ratio was below the midpoint was in 2012. When it is above the midpoint level, silver is historically cheap compared to gold and these days, what is cheap is getting cheaper by the day."

I think we'd need silver in the $13s for the ratio to hit 93. Like the 2015 low, $13.70.

As equities were crashing in 2008, silver went briefly below $10. Maybe people needed to sell stuff to pay obligations related to everything else crashing.

$10 silver, $1000 gold?
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri May 31, 2019 2:30 pm

Gold $1310.90
Silver $14.56

Silver Gold price ratio = 90.03:1

Holy crap!
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Fri May 31, 2019 6:04 pm

The 45 year high is supposedly 93.18
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:46 pm

And we are at 93.12...

I am starting to seriously consider swapping some gold for silver.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:07 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:46 pm
And we are at 93.12...

I am starting to seriously consider swapping some gold for silver.
My new 100 oz silver bar is great. I got it for only $0.75 over spot (per ounce). Maybe they'll ship bars to you.

http://www.houstoncoins.com
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:16 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:07 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:46 pm
And we are at 93.12...

I am starting to seriously consider swapping some gold for silver.
My new 100 oz silver bar is great. I got it for only $0.75 over spot (per ounce). Maybe they'll ship bars to you.

http://www.houstoncoins.com
I picked up 3 kilo bars a couple of months back when silver was once again under $15 oz. I've always wanted a 100 oz bar. :P
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11787
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:29 pm

They should make a 50 kg bar that lazy thieves would have to ignore.
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:18 pm

This guy is a trader so I'd take a lot of what he is saying with a grain or three of salt. But his broader observations on the relative valuations of gold and silver sounds like he has been reading my posts on this thread.

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/K ... Kitco-NEWS
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:43 pm

Silver gold price ratio has dropped near 10% from its recent high of 93:1. I'm wondering if this is a blip, or if it's the beginning of a major recovery. Hmmm...
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11787
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Thu Jul 25, 2019 7:49 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:43 pm
Silver gold price ratio has dropped near 10% from its recent high of 93:1. I'm wondering if this is a blip, or if it's the beginning of a major recovery. Hmmm...
There was an article in the Wall Street Journal (paywalled) saying that so far, other precious metals have lagged but that gold could very well bring silver and platinum up with it. I have already seen positive articles about platinum and palladium pretty recently, though (as if platinum has *not* lagged), so as with the stock market, one has to choose to focus on the news pointing upward or the news pointing downward.
RIP Dusty Hill and be well, Bob Odenkirk
Someguy
Junior Member
Junior Member
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Someguy » Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:13 pm

What do you think about this "silver" PP in transition to a standard PP:

- 25% Stocks
- 25% Bonds
- 25% Cash
- 25% Silver (because of the ratio)

When I need to rebalance, I sell silver (if more than 25% in that moment) or I buy gold (if silver less than 25%). When I need to rebalance again, I sell silver (if both metals are more than 25%) or I buy gold (if both metals are less than 25%).

In a few years there will not be silver in the portfolio.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:13 pm

Someguy wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:13 pm
What do you think about this "silver" PP in transition to a standard PP:

- 25% Stocks
- 25% Bonds
- 25% Cash
- 25% Silver (because of the ratio)

When I need to rebalance, I sell silver (if more than 25% in that moment) or I buy gold (if silver less than 25%). When I need to rebalance again, I sell silver (if both metals are more than 25%) or I buy gold (if both metals are less than 25%).

In a few years there will not be silver in the portfolio.
Not wild about it unless you are living in a place where its illegal to own gold. I own a little silver as a VP speculation. But silver is not a good substitute for gold. For one thing it's not a pure precious metal play. Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. That means its price can be effected by different factors including a general slow down in the economy.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3012
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:57 am

Agreed, AO, as the last 13 years have shown. Nice to have some, ideally to rebalance some gains, but not 25%

Image
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am

gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
Post Reply