Felder Says It's Time To Own Gold Over Stocks

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Felder Says It's Time To Own Gold Over Stocks

Post by pmward » Wed May 15, 2019 4:05 pm

Using a quant indicator of gold to SPX he states it just threw a technical signal to sell stocks and buy gold that has triggered just prior to all of the major decade long gold bull markets going back to 1970:

https://thefelderreport.com/2019/05/15/ ... forward-2/
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mathjak107
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Re: Felder Says It's Time To Own Gold Over Stocks

Post by mathjak107 » Wed May 15, 2019 4:32 pm

well lets see what plays out and how right this guy is ...any bets ?

lets see his other predictions

n his 11.24.2014 blog post he stated that “This Is Probably The Second Worst Time In History to Own Stocks.”


In a subsequent 2.24.2015 blog post he wrote; “Don’t Kid Yourself: Stocks Are Just As Overvalued Today As They Were In 2000

listening to him sure left you a lot poorer
pmward
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Re: Felder Says It's Time To Own Gold Over Stocks

Post by pmward » Wed May 15, 2019 4:44 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 4:32 pm
well lets see what plays out and how right this guy is ...any bets ?

lets see his other predictions

n his 11.24.2014 blog post he stated that “This Is Probably The Second Worst Time In History to Own Stocks.”


In a subsequent 2.24.2015 blog post he wrote; “Don’t Kid Yourself: Stocks Are Just As Overvalued Today As They Were In 2000

listening to him sure left you a lot poorer
Didn't say I was making any bets based on his analysis, just pointing out that the quant signal was thrown because I find it interesting. Though we do have yet to see how those two posts you made shake out, he could still be proven right. The jury is still out. We very well could go back much lower than those 2014/2015 levels in the next cyclical bear market. You know what they say about counting your chickens...

Also in reference to gold, from my own experience in technical analysis, I do really really like the long term bullish wedge pattern gold has been in since 2013/2014. I'm not sure when it's going to break out exactly, the wedge pattern doesn't come to a point for a couple more years so it could be anytime between now and then... but when it does break out with that nice and clean of a consolidation it's highly likely to break the F out, haha. So his quant indicator does support the narrative that I've formed that gold is currently in the process of building a base from which to launch a new bull run and that the 2020's are going to be a strong decade for gold and a poor decade for stocks.
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Kbg
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Re: Felder Says It's Time To Own Gold Over Stocks

Post by Kbg » Thu May 16, 2019 9:20 am

Math and statistics are good...sample size for developing said indicator: 2-4 events tops since 1973 per the chart. Could be right, could be wrong but we know he doesn't have a serious foundation to base anything on.

Also...did he trade an all those little blue bumps that went above and below the yellow 10mo line? I think not, and I'll bet not at any return we would find attractive for the risk taken. If I can remember to, I'll run a backtest on this and post this weekend.
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