Will Trump be Re-elected?

[Ad Orientem]

The Mueller report will be when the rubber hits the road. That's when we will see if Trump's iron grip on the support of roughly a third of the population may weaken. If it does, even slightly, one can expect the GOP congress and Senate critters to run for the tall grass. It's worth noting that the electoral map in 2020 does not favor the GOP in the Senate as it did last year. Assuming Trump survives to stand for re-election in 2020, I think his odds will be poor. The Democrats are united in their hatred as never before in my lifetime, and it seems likely Trump will face opposition from the more sane wing of the GOP. History suggests it is extremely unlikely they will succeed in denying him renomination, but he will be weakened. No sitting president in modern political history was reelected if they faced a serious challenge from within their own party. And there is the very real possibility that a center right independent candidate will emerge. I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd say the 2020 election is the Democrat's to lose.

[Kriegsspiel]

The Democrats are united in their hatred as never before in my lifetime

Agreed. Even "Bush Derangement Syndrome" was never a thing, and they didn't like him either. The sustained level of frothing rage is bonkers.

it seems likely Trump will face opposition from the more sane wing of the GOP.

there is the very real possibility that a center right independent candidate will emerge.

Who are the sane wing? Do you mean personality-wise, or policy-wise? As far as I can tell he has mostly mainstream or centrist/bipartisan positions:

• His main thing is curbing illegal immigration and securing the US Mexico border, and that's had bipartisan support for decades.
• Anti-globalism and trade protections were Democrat positions a few decades ago too (and still are, with literally Socialist Bernie Sanders).
• Go back more than a few decades and being against bad wars was a Democrat position too.
• He's said he's for campaign finance reform, and said PACs are a scam, and he's in favor of lobbyist restrictions for people leaving government jobs.
• He's for freedom of choice (schools).
• He supports the drug war, which is a mainstream position on both sides.
• He has said pollution and clean water are problems worth fixing.
• His support for/use of eminent domain is bipartisan. Same with torture.
• LGBTQWTF issues I suspect he's pretty mainstream Republican? Not really sure.
• Support of the PATRIOT Act and mass surveillance is bipartisan.
• Travel restrictions on people from Muslim countries has been bipartisan.
  
  Democrats hate...
  ... that he "rejects the scientific consensus on climate change," but none of them do shit about it either so nobody's really on the moral high ground anyways; everybody wants to either maintain or increase their standard of living and run it on renewable energy, which seems ludicrous at this point.
  
  Republicans don't seem to care about...
  ... 6 weeks guaranteed paid maternity leave. What are we, Europe?
  

  History suggests it is extremely unlikely they will succeed in denying him renomination, but he will be weakened. No sitting president in modern political history was reelected if they faced a serious challenge from within their own party.
  I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd say the 2020 election is the Democrat's to lose.

  Why would they? Those political people spank it to poll numbers, and he currently has a 44% approval rating according to Gallup. I don't know if that's considered good or bad, but looking at W's, he was below that for the last few years of his presidency. His SOTU speech seemed well received. In the poll I said he'd either get re-elected because he's better than people give him credit for, or he'll be defeated by an insane Leftist (paraphrasing). Could be interesting to see what happens.

[sophie]

Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course). What the Democrats don't like about Trump is pretty much limited to his personality issues, plus a genuine disagreement on whether illegal immigration should be condoned. However, it's not so obvious that Democratic voters are united on that issue. His other policy positions are shared by a majority of voters and even Democratic candidates to a surprising degree - including Elizabeth Warren.

This is how I see it: The main question for the outcome of the 2020 election is whether voters will focus on the personality issues or the policy positions. The personality issues are clearly a big problem, but they're largely short term and probably don't have much impact at the end of the day, whereas policy will affect you (and your bank account) directly and for the long term - thus I would rather focus on that, and I suspect many people feel the same. In 2016 enough voters went for policy to alter the outcome. It remains to be seen whether the media's relentless focus on the personality issues will have a substantial effect. I am 100% certain that they will, just like last time, predict a Democratic victory right up until Election day, but don't take that too seriously.

[Mountaineer]

Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course). What the Democrats don't like about Trump is pretty much limited to his personality issues, plus a genuine disagreement on whether illegal immigration should be condoned. However, it's not so obvious that Democratic voters are united on that issue. His other policy positions are shared by a majority of voters and even Democratic candidates to a surprising degree - including Elizabeth Warren.

This is how I see it: The main question for the outcome of the 2020 election is whether voters will focus on the personality issues or the policy positions. The personality issues are clearly a big problem, but they're largely short term and probably don't have much impact at the end of the day, whereas policy will affect you (and your bank account) directly and for the long term - thus I would rather focus on that, and I suspect many people feel the same. In 2016 enough voters went for policy to alter the outcome. It remains to be seen whether the media's relentless focus on the personality issues will have a substantial effect. I am 100% certain that they will, just like last time, predict a Democratic victory right up until Election day, but don't take that too seriously.

Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/

[Kriegsspiel]

Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course).

That would be fine, I looked them all up but I went with the bipartisan thing kinda haphazardly. I took out my shout out to moda in the eminent domain bullet

[Kriegsspiel]

Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/

When the media picks up the "Airplane Viewership Rankings" as the Next Big Indicator I can say YO I WAS THERE WHEN IT STARTED.

[Mountaineer]

Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/

When the media picks up the "Airplane Viewership Rankings" as the Next Big Indicator I can say YO I WAS THERE WHEN IT STARTED.

[jhogue]

Great news for Trump: Ms. Minnesota Nice herself —Senator Amy Klobuchar-- has declared for President. Her entry into the race ensures that Democrats will have a choice in the Iowa caucus between those who primarily hate Donald Trump’s persona and those who primarily hate “the rich.”

Predictably, Trump immediately attacked her for attacking global warming in the middle of a Minnesota snowstorm. Just as predictably, she counter-punched on facebook by arguing that her hair held up better under the weather than his would.

[dualstow]

I love it

[jhogue]

More great news for Trump:

Bernie Sanders declared for President. Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show (who does a wicked Trump imitation, by the way) made fun of Bernie three nights running, calling him an Old Man.

Bernie's Santa Claus Socialism and his entry into the race form an important milestone in the Democrats' road to ruin. He certainly hates "the rich" on principle, but he may not personally hate Trump enough to satisfy the party's TDS wing.

[jacksonM]

More great news for Trump:

Bernie Sanders declared for President. Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show (who does a wicked Trump imitation, by the way) made fun of Bernie three nights running, calling him an Old Man.

Bernie's Santa Claus Socialism and his entry into the race form an important milestone in the Democrats' road to ruin. He certainly hates "the rich" on principle, but he may not personally hate Trump enough to satisfy the party's TDS wing.

Now you have leading candidates coming out for reparations for slavery (Harris and Booker I believe and in the case of Pocahontas she will also include native Americans).

Socialism, the Green New Deal, reparations for slavery - do these bozos really think a majority of the American people are going to vote for this stuff? If they put one of them at the top of the ticket I suspect Pat Buchanan will be right in his prediction that Trump will win by a landslide.

Personally, I don't feel particularly motivated to go to the polls and vote for Trump on his own merits at this time. He talks non-interventionism abroad and then surrounds himself with some of the worse neocons imaginable. He talks about limiting all immigration, both legal and illegal to get elected and then he not only doesn't build the wall but he says in his POTUS speech that he wants to open the floodgates for more legal immigration.

Unfortunately, if one of the Dem nutjobs gets nominated I will be forced to hold my nose and go vote for him as the lesser of two evils.

[dualstow]

Remember 2016 when Bernie was fringe? Now he’s just another Democratic candidate in the mix.