Another solid January

[Pet Hog]

I've been fully invested in the PP since May 2013 and I keep a monthly spreadsheet of my performance. I noticed that each of the last six Januaries has had excellent (relative to PP standards) performance (up at least 1.2%), including this one just ended. So I wondered whether it is a feature of the PP in general. Here are some numbers (adjusted closes from Yahoo Finance) of the nominal January returns of an all-ETF PP (actual gold spot prices for the first entry). For these 16 years, there have been just four negative Januaries, with the average return of the PP in January being 1.08%, and with gold (+3.34% on average) being the most significant contributor -- stocks the least. Enough data to speculate on a cunning PP strategy? Regardless, I'm delighted with 2019 so far!

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		VTI	TLT	GLD	SHY	PP
		
Dec 31, 2003	39.86	50.24	417.25	63.57		
Jan 31, 2004	40.90	51.18	399.75	63.64		
		2.61%	1.87%	(4.19%)	0.11%	0.10%	
						
Dec 31, 2004	44.96	54.62	43.80	63.99		
Jan 31, 2005	43.83	56.57	42.22	63.97		
		(2.51%)	3.57%	(3.61%)	(0.03%)	(0.65%)	
						
Dec 31, 2005	47.79	59.31	51.58	64.97		
Jan 31, 2006	49.33	58.52	56.70	65.08		
		3.22%	(1.33%)	9.93%	0.17%	3.00%	
						
Dec 31, 2006	55.29	59.73	63.21	67.50		
Jan 31, 2007	56.32	59.14	64.83	67.61		
		1.86%	(0.99%)	2.56%	0.16%	0.90%	
						
Dec 31, 2007	58.26	65.89	82.46	72.46		
Jan 31, 2008	54.67	67.27	91.40	73.66		
		(6.16%)	2.09%	10.84%	1.66%	2.11%	
						
Dec 31, 2008	36.71	88.26	86.52	77.26		
Jan 31, 2009	33.76	76.72	91.31	76.92		
		(8.04%)	(13.08%)	5.54%	(0.44%)	(4.00%)	
						
Dec 31, 2009	47.32	69.01	107.31	77.53		
Jan 31, 2010	45.64	70.87	105.96	78.15		
		(3.55%)	2.70%	(1.26%)	0.80%	(0.33%)	
						
Dec 31, 2010	55.57	75.23	138.72	79.30		
Jan 31, 2011	56.71	72.91	129.87	79.40		
		2.05%	(3.08%)	(6.38%)	0.13%	(1.82%)	
						
Dec 31, 2011	56.11	100.81	151.99	80.44		
Jan 31, 2012	58.95	100.48	169.31	80.51		
		5.06%	(0.33%)	11.40%	0.09%	4.05%	
						
Dec 31, 2012	65.34	103.24	162.02	80.64		
Jan 31, 2013	68.88	99.95	161.20	80.65		
		5.42%	(3.19%)	(0.51%)	0.01%	0.43%	
						
Dec 31, 2013	87.20	89.43	116.12	80.82		
Jan 31, 2014	84.43	95.06	120.09	80.98		
		(3.18%)	6.30%	3.42%	0.20%	1.68%	
						
Dec 31, 2014	98.14	113.84	113.58	81.18		
Jan 31, 2015	95.45	125.02	123.45	81.69		
		(2.74%)	9.82%	8.69%	0.63%	4.10%	
						
Dec 31, 2015	98.49	111.80	101.46	81.53		
Jan 31, 2016	92.85	118.03	106.95	82.06		
		(5.73%)	5.57%	5.41%	0.65%	1.48%	
						
Dec 31, 2016	111.11	113.11	109.61	82.20		
Jan 31, 2017	113.17	114.03	115.55	82.29		
		1.85%	0.81%	5.42%	0.11%	2.05%	
						
Dec 31, 2017	134.68	123.50	123.65	82.41		
Jan 31, 2018	141.73	119.48	127.65	82.18		
		5.23%	(3.26%)	3.23%	(0.28%)	1.23%	
						
Dec 31, 2018	127.63	121.51	121.25	83.62		
Jan 31, 2019	138.53	121.97	124.75	83.83		
		8.54%	0.38%	2.89%	0.25%	3.01%	
						
AVERAGE		0.25%	0.49%	3.34%	0.26%	1.08%	

[Pet Hog]

If January is a good month, what about the others? I've gone through the data month by month and here are the results for the past 15 years (some months have only 14 years of data). I've used only the EFT closing prices for VTI, TLT, GLD, and SHY, but not the spot price for gold, so there's one less month here averaged for January than the number I posted yesterday.

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Month		Average return	Rolling 3 month	Rolling 6 month	Rolling 9 month

January		1.15%		0.64%		0.47%		0.56%
February	0.56%		0.56%		0.42%		0.41%
March		0.21%		0.39%		0.50%		0.46%
April		0.92%		0.29%		0.52%		0.49%
May		0.04%		0.27%		0.34%		0.51%
June		(0.07%)		0.61%		0.49%		0.57%
July		0.86%		0.74%		0.58%		0.60%
August		1.04%		0.40%		0.63%		0.61%
September	0.34%		0.38%		0.55%		0.50%
October		(0.18%)		0.42%		0.53%		0.45%
November	0.98%		0.86%		0.71%		0.57%
December	0.46%		0.72%		0.56%		0.57%
				
Average month	0.52%			
Annualized 	6.47%			

As was my hunch, January has been the best PP month (these are nominal returns, not real). Also notable are April (0.92%), July (0.86%), August (1.04%), and November (0.98%). The poorest months have been May (0.04%), June (-0.07%), and October (-0.18%).

The other three columns provide the average rolling returns (not compounded, just averaged) beginning with the listed month; for example, the average rolling 3-month return starting in January (that is, December 31 to March 31) was 0.64%. The best 3-month period for the PP since 2004/2005 was November to January; best 6 months, November to April; best 9 months, August to April.

Using these numbers to make some predictions, the next three months should give a slightly above average PP return (0.56%/mo), but the next six (0.42%/mo) and nine (0.41%/mo) should be below average. One good PP strategy would have been to avoid May and June entirely (go 100% cash). But I'm not providing financial advice!

[dualstow]

[Cortopassi]

Up 4.37% currently.

A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!

[jacksonM]

Up 4.37% currently.

A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!

Don't know what I'm up YTD but I'm at exactly the same place I was last January when I re-balanced so I can revise my ROI using the GB last year from a 2.9% loss to a 0% gain.

[Pet Hog]

A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!

I'm with you! That's what I was sort of hinting at with my post. After last year's loss, I'd be happy with 4% ytd and adding on 2.5% extra with an 11-month treasury. But with regression toward the mean I hope the PP has a better year than that. Years than that. Anyway, I'm done with market-timing, but it's fun to dream.

[buddtholomew]

A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!

I'm with you! That's what I was sort of hinting at with my post. After last year's loss, I'd be happy with 4% ytd and adding on 2.5% extra with an 11-month treasury. But with regression toward the mean I hope the PP has a better year than that. Years than that. Anyway, I'm done with market-timing, but it's fun to dream.

A little extreme to sell to cash
Personally, I feel the same way as both of you.
Well within tolerance bands, so really no action to take.

[I Shrugged]

I sold a bunch of GLD in December, to take gains which will offset a loss on a sale of something else. Of course, I didn't go buy gold at Texas Bullion Depository or some other place as I had intended, because gold has been going nowhere, so why rush? Of course....

[dualstow]

You sold gold at a gain? I feel like a very thirsty guy in the desert looking up at someone drinking a jug of Poland Spring.

[I Shrugged]

I bought it in late 2008 or early 2009. Since then I've felt stuck in GLD because of the tax hit for taking a gain. But I happened to have a loss on something in 2018, so I was able to get some of it out.

[Pet Hog]

January did it again.

Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.

VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58

PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%

[Don]

January did it again.

Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.

VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58

PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%

Odd that stocks were the loser of the month. Usually, January is a very good time to own stocks.

Coronavirus

[Pet Hog]

Odd that stocks were the loser of the month. Usually, January is a very good time to own stocks.

Coronavirus

If you see my initial post in this thread, stocks have not been consistently good in January in recent years. Whereas, gold has been outstanding.

[Pet Hog]

Below, the numbers are adjusted closes for December 31 and January 29 (from Yahoo), then the percentage change.

VTI 194.64 193.99 -0.33%
TLT 157.73 152.00 -3.63%
GLD 178.36 172.61 -3.22%
SHY 86.38 86.40 +0.02%

PP January 2021: [(-0.33) + (-3.63) + (-3.22) + (+0.02)]/4 = -1.79%

A negative January -- a first for me since I started PP investing in May 2013. November and December were great PP months, so things have averaged out well recently. I was slightly overweight stocks and underweight bonds, so my loss in January was a little less, about -1.5%.

[dualstow]

Pet Hog, you're our madsinger!

[Vil]

Below, the numbers are adjusted closes for December 31 and January 29 (from Yahoo), then the percentage change.

VTI 194.64 193.99 -0.33%
TLT 157.73 152.00 -3.63%
GLD 178.36 172.61 -3.22%
SHY 86.38 86.40 +0.02%

PP January 2021: [(-0.33) + (-3.63) + (-3.22) + (+0.02)]/4 = -1.79%

A negative January -- a first for me since I started PP investing in May 2013. November and December were great PP months, so things have averaged out well recently. I was slightly overweight stocks and underweight bonds, so my loss in January was a little less, about -1.5%.

Seems the boat is slowly changing the direction (or not knowing which direction to take, IMHO ), so we are in one of those all negative periods... Personally, in the middle of Jan I've done my annual contribution to all assets, so hope I got at least a bit of discount ...