Stock scream room

[boglerdude]

Stocks are inflation + dividend. Gambling/hot money cycles in the short term

Inflation can be "good" when its smart loans being made or gov printing money for infrastructure. 2007 was dumb loans inflation and Iraq war

[ochotona]

Schwab, 10/12/2018:

"Stock market action recently illustrates again why it’s important for investors to remain disciplined and diversified in a way consistent with their risk tolerances and investment goals. The bull market may have more legs, and upside surprises are possible, but risks have been rising over the past year or so, leading us to be more cautious and recommend that investors limit the risk in their portfolios."

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/ ... erspective

[ochotona]

Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com

MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.

55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.

{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}

[Don]

Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com

MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.

55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.

{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}

"Bonds" is such a vague term. What kind of bonds?

[ochotona]

Yeah, right... Subprime is contained blah blah blah

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin dismissed concerns that China’s weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis could spill into other emerging markets and destabilize U.S. financial markets.

[ochotona]

November: Ned Davis is 50% equities now

[ochotona]

Another day another puke. Could be January 2008 again for all we know...

[ochotona]

From my friend Lance Roberts:

"Last week, we further reduced equity risk further bringing exposures down to just 40% of our portfolios. On a rally to the 200-dma which fails, we will reduce risk more and add negative hedges to portfolios."

[boglerdude]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... n-6-25-mom

Why would you loan someone money to buy stocks?

[ochotona]

The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.

[Kbg]

The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.

Actually only #10 most volatile this year...I think I heard that Bloomberg (mute if wrong)

However, A+ on the visuals!!! LOL

[ochotona]

The Schwab talking heads - Randy Frederick, Liz Ann Sonders, Kathy Jones... are getting really bearish. If you read their tweets, you get a sense of this.

@lizannsonders
@randyafrederick
@kathyjones