Stock scream room

[ochotona]

CNBC had some trader on two days ago who was projecting an upside of 3400-3500 on the SP500, and that would be the top of the rally from March 2009. 20% more... if true, another few years?

OMG Credit Suisse just came out with a 3350 call for SP500 by end of 2019! Sounds like fun, but when this binch rolls over it will not be fun. Hussman is gonna have a stroke. Gartman, too.

[dualstow]

Bring on the exuberance.

[ochotona]

CNBC - Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio may be warning about the economy, but Wall Street bull Jeff Saut isn't changing his thesis.

March 2019 will mark the 10th year of this bull market, and "We ought to have another seven to eight years left," he said.

[eufo]

CNBC - Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio may be warning about the economy, but Wall Street bull Jeff Saut isn't changing his thesis.

March 2019 will mark the 10th year of this bull market, and "We ought to have another seven to eight years left," he said.

We ought to have peace and prosperity in perpetuity.

[dualstow]

Market crash or another 7 years of prosperity? It’s all too stressful to think about. I need to calm down with some chamomile tea and Serena Williams news items.

[ochotona]

Charles Nenner has stopped screaming about Dow 5,000. Listening to "Market Wrap" by Moe Ansari podcast. He does see dis-inflation / deflation coming back. Bond rally.

Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.

Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.

He likes gold and bonds.

[buddtholomew]

Charles Nenner has stopped screaming about Dow 5,000. Listening to "Market Wrap" by Moe Ansari podcast. He does see dis-inflation / deflation coming back. Bond rally.

Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.

Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.

He likes gold and bonds.

Nenner’s notes should go back into the drawer...hahah; love Moe on the other hand...”Hopium”

[ochotona]

Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.

[sophie]

Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.

Perfect indication to buy more stocks!!!!

Ochotona you seriously need to read Harry Browne's book, How the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong. He does a very thorough debunking of virtually all prediction strategies. By the time you're done with it, you'll just laugh at stuff like this.

[dualstow]

What Sophie said.


Also, wasn’t Shiller far more positive a short while ago? Maybe a year ago, two at most.
He stressed that he wasn’t making a prediction, but he was quite optimistic.

[ochotona]

Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.

I post bull and bear predictions for amusement. Some say SP 500 to 3500, others say 700. You have to laugh.

[Kbg]

Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.

[buddtholomew]

Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.

I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...

There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.

[Kbg]

Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.

I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...

There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.

BuddT,

That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.

[ochotona]

These decadal market return predictions are like climate, shorter durations are like weather. The climate can be warming or cooling, but you can still have cold and hot days which does not disprove the long-term trends of climate warming or cooling.

[buddtholomew]

Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.

I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...

There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.

BuddT,

That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.

He wasn’t looking forward 10 years.
The point is they don’t work!

[ochotona]

Charles Schwab Client Cash Hits All Time Low As Retail Investors Flood The Market

[dualstow]

Charles Schwab Client Cash Hits All Time Low As Retail Investors Flood The Market

I saw something similar but it was in the wsj and I didn’t want to annoy Pug.

[dualstow]

You’re the spokesperson for the silent majority.

[ochotona]

Amazing no screaming here. I guess everyone was expecting some declines eventually.

[dualstow]

Amazing no screaming here. I guess everyone was expecting some declines eventually.

It’s all in the Gold section.

[Cortopassi]

Here comes the snapback. Let's see if it goes until the close.

[dualstow]

Here comes the snapback. Let's see if it goes until the close.

Lost and Regained

[matt2499]

At least TSLA and TWTR are up today, happy with that :-)

TSLA too crazy of a roller coaster to handle right now

[dualstow]

#markettiming

What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?