Desire to sell TLT?

[amp]

Yeah, I know... I shouldn't feel this way, but I really feel like selling TLT ASAP when I check the 5-year chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=5 ... z=l&q=l&c=

Haven't pulled the trigger, I'm obviously reaching out to all of you for help.  Please don't hate me too much!  I'm only human.

-Drew

[MediumTex]

What about the chart makes you want to sell?

I say pay attention to the whole portfolio, not the individual assets.

The logic you are using would have had you sell all your TLT at the end of 2008 as well, but what then?  How would you have known when to re-buy?

Would you wake up Rip van Winkle over something like this?  I wouldn't.

Let your PP do its thing.

[pitbullshark]

Well, amp, has this fund gone beyond 30% of your portfolio?  One thing I think is cool about handling the permanent portfolio is that rebalancing makes you sell at a high (maybe not THE high!) and buy at a low (maybe not THE low!).

[stone]

Amp, I guess how I contain such urges is by looking at the Japanese 20year bond yields from 1989 onwards. Each impossibly low yield "once in a lifetime" selling opertunity was followed by an even better one and so on and so on.

Might the least bad form of deviance from the PP, be to rebalance to 25:25:25:25 prematurely if you are getting ants in your pants? Probably I deserve a rebuke for "thin end of the wedge" deviance though.

[amp]

Thanks to all... I know what you say is true, but I still have the urge just based on history/charts.  Funny thing is that the only thing I know for sure is that I don't know what it will do next, hence the reason I'm in the PP to begin with.  Perhaps my indoctrination hasn't completely stuck yet.

TLT is not at the 30% band as I've been investing retirement contributions into whatever is lagging percentage-wise, which has been stocks for the past few months.  Guess I continually rebalance without ever selling anything.  Not sure if that makes sense or not, you guys got any opinions on this practice?

Thanks,
Drew

[Indices]

IGNORE THE CHARTS. One of the hardest things for the human mind to understand is that past performance often means nothing. It took me several years to understand this.

[amp]

Oh, believe me, I know that I should ignore the charts.

I also know I shouldn't drink beer...

[Indices]

No you should still drink beer. It makes the voices in your head go away, specifically the ones that say "look at the charts".

[MediumTex]

Try contributing to cash until it hits 30% or 35% instead of buying the lagging asset.

[Storm]

Bill Gross decided to sell US treasuries - look at how well he's done:  http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti ... 12611.html

[dualstow]

Bill Gross decided to sell US treasuries - look at how well he's done:  http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti ... 12611.html

hah! Exactly.