barrett wrote:Source, MG? Looks like the 30-year bond lost about 6% in 1981. Hardly a crash. I'd be really curious to hear what Dalio is recommending these days. The version of the All Weather Portfolio that I saw from a couple of years back had 40% in 30-year treasuries and another 15% in 10-year bonds.
I don't know why when supposedly smart people say "bonds" they always have shorter-duration, multi-composite AGG (only about 33.26% Treasuries) in mind and never 30-year Treasuries. We must really be daredevil mavericks around here! OTOH, the duration of 30-year Treasuries in 1981 was only 6.81. I agree -- not a crash at all. Not compared to the 137% increased risk we face now (since the last bottom in yields). What is worrying is how fast these yield increases will happen. The faster it is, the "tighter the money" it will act upon the PP. We're not in a regime of high inflation so it would have to be from some kind of exogenous shock and not from the Fed.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Thanks for posting that Dalio link, MG. It deserves its own thread. Looks like he must have been referring to the 7/2/79 to 2/26/80 drawdown in 30-year bonds that was 25.5%. That of course makes sense because interest rates were shooting up during that period. By 1981 holding long bonds was a great position (in retrospect) because rates were about to start going down, and for a long time.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Paul Novell at investingforaliving.us follows UER as a technical indicator quite closely. This is what he says:
"The UER cross is only the first piece of the signal. Now the 200 day SMA is in play. A sell signal would occur when the SPY crosses below the 200 day SMA."
Reub wrote:The stock market has turned decidedly negative in recent days. We're reaching the end of Obama's false economy so be careful.
Well God bless his false economy and what it's done for us, Reub, because it's been an incredible run.
Only things is, I would rather have stocks remain low as I am still in the accumulation phase.
