
TLT value increased when FED raised rates?
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- lordmetroid
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TLT value increased when FED raised rates?
I thought the bonds where suppose to loose value when rates increased. This is crazy!


Re: TLT value increased when FED raised rates?
Rate hike was one of the worst kept secrets. All priced in far in advance.
- dualstow
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Re: TLT value increased when FED raised rates?
If there's one thing I've learned over and over and over on this forum, it's that gentle Fed rate hikes wouldn't necessarily affect our long term bonds at all. So, definitely not crazy.lordmetroid wrote: I thought the bonds where suppose to loose value when rates increased. This is crazy!
Monstres and tokeninges gert he be-kend, / And wondirs in the air send.
Re: TLT value increased when FED raised rates?
Also, TLT and FED funds rate are the two extreme ends of the yield curve... they are not tightly linked.
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Re: TLT value increased when FED raised rates?
The Fed Funds rate is a short term rate.lordmetroid wrote: I thought the bonds where suppose to loose value when rates increased. This is crazy!
Put simply: The yield investors ask on a 30 year Treasury is essentially their expected average yield of all the 30 1 yr Treasurys inside that timespan (or all the 60 6 month Treasurys etc.), plus some premium to compensate for surrendering your money for a longer period. So even if the yield on the 1 yr were to go to 4%, if investors expect that increase to be short lived and 1 yr yields to fall back to around 0.5% for example, and then stay below 3% for decades to come, they may still be satisfied with a 3% yield on present 30 year Treasurys.
Last edited by economicsjunkie on Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.