PP is once again positive YTD

[mathjak107]

there were not many around  continuously so i would really have to research it  but it also tends to be manager sensitive and when the manager goes the clients tend to  go so  it would hard to follow that far back since the clients tend to switch funds ..

indexing was very different too . the more that jump on the bandwagon the more over valued the same stocks become and the easier it is to find value elsewhere . almost over overwhelmingly all fidelity's large cap stocks had no trouble beating the s&p 500 the last 6 out of 7 years with this year being another landslide .



http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/ ... DF20140128

[MachineGhost]

Interesting.  You never want to go into a crowded trade.  I'll have to look into this more more.    BTW, this is one of the many constraints for why it is difficult for Wall Street to outperform long-term:

Fidelity and OppenheimerFunds have said they want their portfolio managers to pick stocks while keeping a sharp eye on tracking error, which measures the volatility of a portfolio's returns relative to its benchmark.

[mathjak107]

there are only a few funds i ever owned long term . when the big picture shifts , or managers change the funds eventually get swapped .  nothing is the best choice  forever

[dragoncar]

Back on topic, what's today's YTD according to the Chinese calendar?

[buddtholomew]

PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

[dutchtraffic]

PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

I suppose this means you are down 0.0004% again for the year..? 

[Reub]

PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

So Budd, are you totally out of it? If so, how are you investing?

[buddtholomew]

PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

So Budd, are you totally out of it? If so, how are you investing?

LTT gains offset gold losses and I am now 30/70 stocks/bonds,cash

[barrett]

PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

Er, haven't you had PP angst a lot more recently than six months ago? Was it still upsetting you after you got out or do I have the timeframe wrong?

[buddtholomew]

I began selling GLD in retirement accounts and exchanged the assets for international. I am now 60/40 US/INT. Just recently I have been selling GLD and TLT in taxable to offset losses and gains respectively.

[mathjak107]

PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

such heresy ! ....  someone wash his hands with soap for typing such blather .  lol

[Pointedstick]

If it makes you feel better, I say good for you! This isn't an inquisition.

[MachineGhost]

Budd's a great contrarian indicator.

[buddtholomew]

I still have all assets, but in different proportions than the conventional 4x25 allocation. I hold more stocks and cash with significantly less gold. I am now 52.5/40/7.5 stocks/bonds+cash/gold. I benefited entirely from the 2009-current rise in equities and offset gains in LTT's with losses in gold.

As for being a contrarian indicator, so be it. I allocated away from gold into more stocks and bonds/cash. 

[barrett]

I am now 52.5/50/7.5 stocks/bonds+cash/gold.

Ah, the 110% portfolio! That should do well.

Seriously, Budd, I hope your new allocation gives you peace of mind. This place isn't meant to be a groupthink hangout. If your remaining gold does well, you'll still have way more than most investors. If it stinks up the place, well it's only a small part of your holdings. I think ideally most people want to be invested in a way that doesn't have them on edge all the time.

[buddtholomew]

I am now 52.5/50/7.5 stocks/bonds+cash/gold.

Ah, the 110% portfolio! That should do well.

Seriously, Budd, I hope your new allocation gives you peace of mind. This place isn't meant to be a groupthink hangout. If your remaining gold does well, you'll still have way more than most investors. If it stinks up the place, well it's only a small part of your holdings. I think ideally most people want to be invested in a way that doesn't have them on edge all the time.

Thanks for catching the typo, 40% in bonds and cash. Yeah, I feel its the best of all worlds and now I can worry about stocks for a bit instead of gold :-)

[Cortopassi]

Yeah, nothing at all to worry about there...!

[buddtholomew]

Yeah, nothing at all to worry about there...!

Here's the thing, I already exchanged GLD for SPY when it was trading at 189/share. That's a 10%+ return since that purchase instead of a 2-3% loss in gold. I would rather accept the volatility in stocks and re-balance than have false expectations that gold will buoy the portfolio when equities and/or bonds decline. The insurance is not worth the cost especially when there is no guarantee of a payout. It's like having earthquake insurance with a 10% deductible. You're paying premiums year after year and only if there is a catastrophe are you made whole. An earthquake in the 4-5 range and you're still out of pocket for premiums and to rebuild.

[mathjak107]

you are sounding like me now . i hope i didn't influence you .

[buddtholomew]

you are sounding like me now . i hope i didn't influence you .

No, not consciously 

I saw the opportunity to divest out of gold and decided it was time.

[MachineGhost]

Yeah, nothing at all to worry about there...!

Here's the thing, I already exchanged GLD for SPY when it was trading at 189/share. That's a 10%+ return since that purchase instead of a 2-3% loss in gold. I would rather accept the volatility in stocks and rebalance than have false expectations that gold will buoy the portfolio when equities and/or bonds decline. The insurance is not worth the cost especially when there is no guarantee of a payout. It's like having earthquake insurance with a 10% deductible. You're paying premiums year after year and only if there is a catastrophe are you made whole. An earthquake in the 4-5 range and you're still out of pocket for premiums and to rebuild.

Unlike stock and bonds, you do get something tangible for your money that would come in handy in the real world in a loss of confidence scenario.  What good are electrons???  Insurance is only as good as its ability to be there for you when you need it.

That being said, if you need more growth, the PP certainly isn't the best vehicle.

[buddtholomew]

Yeah, nothing at all to worry about there...!

Here's the thing, I already exchanged GLD for SPY when it was trading at 189/share. That's a 10%+ return since that purchase instead of a 2-3% loss in gold. I would rather accept the volatility in stocks and rebalance than have false expectations that gold will buoy the portfolio when equities and/or bonds decline. The insurance is not worth the cost especially when there is no guarantee of a payout. It's like having earthquake insurance with a 10% deductible. You're paying premiums year after year and only if there is a catastrophe are you made whole. An earthquake in the 4-5 range and you're still out of pocket for premiums and to rebuild.

Unlike stock and bonds, you do get something tangible for your money that would come in handy in the real world in a loss of confidence scenario.  What good are electrons???  Insurance is only as good as its ability to be there for you when you need it.

That being said, if you need more growth, the PP certainly isn't the best vehicle.

Agreed. I am slowly transitioning away from GLD to physical gold for such a scenario.

[mathjak107]

Budd's a great contrarian indicator.

ha ha ha , now i am thinking of buying gld if budds getting out .

[ochotona]

Budd's a great contrarian indicator.

ha ha ha , now i am thinking of buying gld if budds getting out .

[mathjak107]

gold is still falling as of this morning . guess it wasn't going to change with budd selling after all  .

damn , with bud selling i thought if i now bought i would be on my way  to riches .