The Suicide Portfolio

[rickb]

Isn't this fundamentally a loser's game (so to speak)?  I mean, if you think you can reliably predict what will go down, by shorting that same portfolio you'll be predicting a portfolio that will be reliably increasing.  In the grand scheme of things, this should be precisely as difficult as predicting a winning long-only portfolio.

[MediumTex]

Isn't this fundamentally a loser's game (so to speak)?  I mean, if you think you can reliably predict what will go down, by shorting that same portfolio you'll be predicting a portfolio that will be reliably increasing.  In the grand scheme of things, this should be precisely as difficult as predicting a winning long-only portfolio.

Yes, but you have to actually do it to learn the lesson you are describing in all of its glory.

[MediumTex]

Arsenic House putting on a nice SP show today.

Down $2,500.

[l82start]

was closing in on a $61,000.00 total gain, but an $800 drop pulled it back to a mere 60,097.40 total gain for the bankrupt bankroll 

[HB Reader]

The FAD Portfolio is $105.00 above water after three trading days.  But this day-to-day stuff doesn't matter -- I'm in it for the big long term capital loss.  I normally don't even comment on these short term moves.     

[MediumTex]

The FAD Portfolio is $105.00 above water after three trading days.  But this day-to-day stuff doesn't matter -- I'm in it for the big long term capital loss.  I normally don't even comment on these short term moves.     

Since the SP has many anti-PP qualities, I look in on mine all the time, and if it gets too ugly I may bail on any SP assets I decide I don't like any more.

[Tortoise]

Since the SP has many anti-PP qualities, I look in on mine all the time, and if it gets too ugly I may bail on any SP assets I decide I don't like any more.

Makes sense. I had a small army of highly-paid investment advisors recommend stocks for my SP. Some of them relied on chart patterns, some on momentum, some on market sentiment, some on mind-numbingly abstruse mathematical formulas, and some even on numerology.

I made sure they all had a financial incentive to sell me the stocks they ended up recommending to me.

BTW, my Brown and Hairy Putrefied Portfolio is down about $2,900 after its first week of trading. At this rate of loss, I'm hopeful I'll be able to miss all of my major savings goals by a mile.

[l82start]

i am afraid if i sold now i would be selling at the top, and get stuck with these horrible gains. i am riding this out... what ever may come. if nothing else i have met tortoise's high volatility requirement for the SP,  unfortunately the rapid and large changes have all been gains.....

[l82start]

having a good day today. down $9,080.09
Now i just need to loose $48,387.45 more to be back where i started

[Storm]

Well, John Paulson pulled out of Sino Forest and it tanked, as predicted, but unfortunately Tokyo Electric Power Company has been on a tear recently and is carrying the whole portfolio...  I guess this portfolio benefits from highly random movements in all of it's components.... 

Here is a self-updating chart from Google Docs:

[l82start]

so i am a bit confused today!!  the huge gain my portfolio was showing has disappeared and the "last trade" date has changed back to April???
on the plus side this means that i am now down $18,814.94 or 18.81% 
does anybody know what has happened here?  i cant find any explanation for the change.. 

[Lone Wolf]

so i am a bit confused today!!   the huge gain my portfolio was showing has disappeared and the "last trade" date has changed back to April???
on the plus side this means that i am now down $18,814.94 or 18.81% 
does anybody know what has happened here?  i cant find any explanation for the change.. 

I don't know what has happened, but congratulations on the terrible week your investments have had!  The stench of failure emanating from your stank portfolio has wafted all the way over to me.  And does it ever reek.

I have to live vicariously through others now that my portfolio is up a net $1,600.    It seems like no matter how hard I try in life, I can never get behind.

[MediumTex]

Arsenic House down $554 today, $4,571 overall.

Yeah baby!

[MediumTex does chicken dance.]

[Tortoise]

so i am a bit confused today!!   the huge gain my portfolio was showing has disappeared and the "last trade" date has changed back to April???
on the plus side this means that i am now down $18,814.94 or 18.81% 
does anybody know what has happened here?  i cant find any explanation for the change.. 

This weekend I'm planning to post a plot of performance vs. time for all of our suicide portfolios, and also show rankings for overall loss and max drawdown. Then my plan is to post an updated plot and rankings every 2 weeks thereafter.

But, l82start, I've got to say... I have no way how to include your portfolio in my spreadsheet. Your securities (or should I say insecurities) appear to be too thinly traded, so it's hard for me to locate price data. Any suggestions you can give me for how I can locate reliable price data for your portfolio?

Maybe we should have placed a lower limit on required trading volume for the purposes of this contest?

[l82start]

that may be a tough one... i am watching it on yahoo finance and on smart money but neither has great charts, and yahoo has no charts at all for the individual stocks, the best one is smart money 5 day chart for the port folio but they have no 10 day or 1 month so it jumps from 5 day to 3 month  and i don't know how you can track from that,

the symbols
GACFQ.PK
LEXPQ.PK
TXEGQ.PK
QSGIQ.PK
 
work at yahoo finance, and will update using "get quote" in open office calc, i am an amateur with spread sheets so maybe somebody with better know how can be more help with that,

the symbols to create this portfolio at smart money are the same just drop the .pk from the end

this is where i started from
 Symbol          Price Paid    Shares               Trd Date      
  LEXPQ.PK          0.0075   3,333,333.33      Jun 9, 2011  
  TXEGQ.PK         0.002    12,500,000          Jun 9, 2011  
  QSGIQ.PK           0.21     119,047.61          Jun 9, 2011  
  GACFQ.PK       0.0011    22,727,272.72          Jun 9, 2011

good luck with your performance chart, its a great idea  it will be fun to watch the portfolios compete

edit to add - this site tracks penny stocks you may be able to get data from here as well http://www.thehotpennystocks.com/

[Storm]

work at yahoo finance, and will update using "get quote" in open office calc, i am an amateur with spread sheets so maybe somebody with better know how can be more help with that,

Use Google Docs, just create a new spreadsheet, put in each cell =GoogleFinance("Ticker Symbol").

Then, put in # of shares in a different cell.  Another cell is =A1*A2 (GoogleFinance price multiplied by number of shares).  Then graph the results in a bar chart, and share the chart, it will give you an image link you can just paste into the forum like I did.

[6 Iron]

According to my SmartMoney Portfolio tracker, the past performance portfolio (AGQ, ERX, 50/50) is down 12.8 % from our start date. I love watching the volatility without having my money on the line, and as former frequent peeker of my permanent portfolio, this satisfies my craving to follow the market. I liken it to nicorette gum for smokers.

[Tortoise]

Here are the intermediate results for the Suicide Portfolio Contest after the first 2 weeks. 6 Iron, it looks like you're our biggest loser so far in both cumulative loss and max drawdown!

Many thanks to Storm for suggesting I use Google Docs to compile and share these results. It definitely makes things easier.

A couple of details: The number of shares of each stock was calculated as the total desired allocation (e.g., $25k) divided by the 6/9/2011 opening price. I assumed fractional shares are allowed; that enabled us all to start off with exactly $100k in our portfolios. For the performance vs. time plot, the data points are based on daily closing prices (except for the very first point of each curve, which is based on the opening price of 6/9/2011).

If the results in these plots differ dramatically from any of your own results, please let me know so we can figure out the discrepancy.

l82start, I didn't include you in these intermediate results because I noticed the total market capitalization of three of your four stocks is less than $100k (and one is less than $25k)! That's a problem since you need to buy $25k of each stock for this contest. Perhaps you should just go all-in on QSGIQ.PK since it is your only stock that trades daily and has a market cap ($8.2 million) that is significantly larger than your $100k portfolio?







The competition is intense! I'll post similar results in another two weeks.

[l82start]

i don't think picking one stock is the same as the plan i had...... we could drop the one with a mc below 25k out, and count the others as 33.%, its not exactly the same but it would be close enough..

when i tried to look up the market cap it is listed as NA on all the ones i checked, if that or low trade volume means i cant use this portfolio in the game it is OK, i can drop out....

[MediumTex]

Looking at the chart above, it's amazing how even in something as silly as the SP exercise, there is still roughly a bell curve distribution of outcomes.

[Tortoise]

Okay, l82start, I just added your portfolio to the Week 2 results.

I included all four of your picks, despite the tiny market cap of a couple of the thinly-traded penny stocks. I figured your portfolio would spice things up with its extreme volatility and probably has about an equal chance of being the biggest winner or the biggest loser. It might provide us all with a valuable lesson in the difficulty of picking stocks--whether for gain or for loss

Sorry, 6 Iron... your Week 2 throne has been usurped.

[l82start]

thanks for adding it in 
i think you are right about extreme volatility and having an equal chance of being big winner and big loser, i have been up as much as 60k and down as much as 30k in the space of a few days. 
don't worry to much about your throne 6 iron i looked at the bankrupt bankroll this morning and it was up 3 grand....

[dualstow]

This thread reminds of the film Brewster's Millions.

[MediumTex]

This thread reminds of the film Brewster's Millions.

That film left a strong impression on me too.

I have often thought about how I would handle that situation--i.e., having to get rid rid of a LOT of money without having ANYTHING to show for it.

[Tortoise]

Updated Suicide Portfolio Contest results for Week 4. Surprisingly, 5 of the 8 portfolios are now in the black! Can the contestants eventually recover from these dangerously high gains? Stay tuned to find out...