Thought Experiment

[Pet Hog]

It could get written up in the newspaper. From the original post: "What happens to you is sad, but it's not something that would get more than local news coverage (if it got any coverage at all)."

OK, you got me, but it doesn't change my answer.

If you're going to challenge my reading comprehension, well, two can play that game.  You said that the race of the victim is not stated, but you might want to check the first line of MT's original post.  Hah -- take that, PS!

How likely is it that someone intentionally wrecks into your car?

Lowe, that's not my point, but I probably didn't word it very well.  Yes, this poor sap is going to be killed by some unknown assailant in some unknown (yet seemingly mundane) manner, but what about you, me, and the rest of us:  What could we do for $500 that would minimize our chances of dying during our day-to-day activities this week ?

[dualstow]

You may be surprised at what your answer tells you about yourself.

Perhaps we will be psychoanalized depending on whether we choose something more defensive (armor) or offensive (second hand bazooka).

In any case, I like the cell phone idea, but for calling 911 instead of offering it to the mugger.

The more I think about it, the more the $500 should be spread out. I don't want to make the same mistake as a small child when my dad agreed to play my first ever session of Dungeons & Dragons with me. I quickly and carelessly spent my initial wealth (electrum?) on a horse and bow so that Dad wouldn't be bored. I didn't even have money left for arrows! He went ahead and bought all kinds of things, including torches, but would not let me redo my part, the cruel bastard. ;-) At least he never hit me. And after that, it was only neighborhood kids allowed in the game.

Accordingly, I would take my electrum pieces and buy enough thick paper to make a jail-style stab vest; a stun gun and bear spray; a knife; a handgun and clip of ammo; a hard hat (that's what I said); a cheap cell phone for calling 911; and a LifeStraw.

[Tyler]

I have to start with WiseOne's assumption that you just need to survive 5 days on $500.  After that you're in no more danger.  My first instinct is to get out of town, but if that's off the table I'm still willing to play.

1) The defensive approach: 
-To prevent physical attack, buy a gun and a big dog.  Keep them with you at all times.  (tossing out waiting period for sake of argument)
-To prevent poisoning, buy bottled water and pre-packaged meals.  Never accept food from anyone.
-Don't drive your own car or walk alone.  Don't open any packages.

2) The political approach: Buy a confederate flag and a small video camera.  Video yourself burning it and post it to youtube.  Shout from the rooftops that you've received death threats from racists, the cops won't help (they don't believe me because they're probably racist too!), you don't want to hide (or they win!), and you don't know what to do.  Watch as a posse of politicized supporters assemble to protect you for the week until things cool down. 

3) The technology approach: Buy one of these http://tinyurl.com/og9zauj, the ugliest helmet mount you can find, and a T-shirt that says "Please help watch my back at www.someonestryingtokillme.com".  Make the perp extremely likely to be caught. 

4) The social approach: Tell three friends that you fear for your life.  You recognize that one of them could be the killer, but want all three to protect you for five days because the killer probably won't strike if they know they'll be caught.  Buy $500 in beer as compensation.  Just always open your own.

[Pointedstick]

Oh no, you got me, Pet Hog! I think you may be onto something. Someone who wanted to kill you with a vehicle wouldn't have to crash into you; they could sabotage your car. Use the $500 to take the bus, walk, and bicycle.

In terms of the meta-game of minimizing your chance of dying, I strongly believe in reducing time spent on a public road, particularly in a private automobile, but probably also on a bicycle in most places. I like to walk everywhere as much as I can.

[dualstow]

I do wonder if half of the people stuck in this predicament wouldn't accidentally shoot their friend who playfully sneaks up on them to say hi during these five days, unaware of the whole situation.

1) The defensive approach: 
-To prevent physical attack, buy a gun and a big dog.
...

Hah! I think some of those violate the normal routine rule, but the big dog idea is excellent! Should have thought of that.

[Lowe]

What I've learned from TV is that the most likely person to kill me is somebody who appeared early on but was never suspected, then five other people were suspected before things pointed back to this person.

Haha, perhaps you should write that on a napkin and keep it in your jacket, so Lennie and Ed have an easier time of it.

Assuming we have good relationship with our spouse and children, and no known enemies or criminal ties, maybe the best investment is another napkin listing your blood type and allergies, if any.  Perhaps sink the $500 into getting low-deductible health insurance.

[dualstow]

FIRST AID KIT

FIRST AID KIT

or along the same lines i wonder how far $500 dollars (100$ per day ) would go toward hiring an out of work EMT to just hang with you full time..
it would give you immediate first aid for pretty much every murder method from gunshot to poison, it wont prevent the attempt, or help you avoid the pain, but would dramatically improve the chance of survival.. it also insures you have a witness which may be a deterrent or at least helps catch the guy after the fact... bonus if the EMT is a military medic and armed...

[Lowe]

Oh no, you got me, Pet Hog! I think you may be onto something. Someone who wanted to kill you with a vehicle wouldn't have to crash into you; they could sabotage your car. Use the $500 to take the bus, walk, and bicycle.

In terms of the meta-game of minimizing your chance of dying, I strongly believe in reducing time spent on a public road, particularly in a private automobile, but probably also on a bicycle in most places. I like to walk everywhere as much as I can.

I share your sentiments about dying on the road.  I really dislike driving because of this.

However, in our scenario, what is more likely: the mechanic decides to off you, or you are stabbed by a crazy person on public transit?

[Tyler]

5) Spend $100/day on marriage counseling.  Because c'mon - we all know who's trying to kill you. 

[Pointedstick]

Actually, taking the bus, walking, or biking probably constitute changing your routine. Question for MediumTex: Does bringing a friend with you or hiring protection constitute changing your routine? Would carrying a gun if you don't typically do so constitute changing your routine? Carrying a flashlight? A first aid kit? Getting a different haircut? Etc.

[Tyler]

6) Remove the motive: If I've learned anything from TV murder mysteries, you should always pay off your drug dealer (if you owe him more than $500 he's definitely the guy) and cancel your life insurance policy.

[dragoncar]

Ok, before I read this PM, I want to say I like where dual stow, Tyler, and l82start are going.  I'm about to read the pm, but I doubt anyone would accuse mediumtex of moving the goalposts.  I've also quoted the original post below just in case any edits occur in the future (none so far).  Ok I read it and the problem statement seems clear.  I think by "no altering the normal routine" he just means you still go where you usually go... No hiding in a bunker as he said. 

Assume you are a middle class white man, married, 1-3 children.  You are intelligent and have above-average earning potential, but you aren't wealthy.  You live in or near a major U.S. city.  You don't have any serious mental or health problems.  You don't have any special Ninja or Navy SEAL-type training or experience, but you are lean and strong, though you haven't been in any kind of real physical altercation in decades.

You find out that sometime in the next five days you will be intentionally killed by another person.  You don't know when it will happen, who will do it, or what their motivation will be, but their behavior will not be out of sync with things you read about in the paper all of the time.  You aren't the victim of some kind of one-in-a-zillion event like a school shooting or other mass murder.  What happens to you is sad, but it's not something that would get more than local news coverage (if it got any coverage at all).

You have a budget of $500 to spend on defensive measures to prevent your death.  You can spend it on whatever you want to spend it on, but you can't alter your normal routine in any way, and you can't hire anyone to pose as you. 

How do you spend your $500?

You may be surprised at what your answer tells you about yourself.

I am going to write out a description of the event and how the $500 could have been spent to prevent it from happening.  The event and its prevention may or may not be obvious, but it isn't so remote that no one would ever be able to guess it.  If someone would like to see what I have written before we start, I would like that so that another member can vouch for the fact that the scenario I have created isn't in any way unfair or impossible to guess or predict. 

Even if the event itself MAY be hard to anticipate (though it might be easy to anticipate as well), the defensive measures to prevent it don't involve something like "buy $500 lockpicking kit and break into local defense lab and steal prototype of battlefield robot suit."  It's nothing like that sort of thing.  The defensive measures are easily within reach of anyone.

Anyone want to validate the experiment before we start?

If anyone would like to ask any additional questions about the event, I will answer them if I can without giving anything away.

[Tyler]

All kidding aside, the more I think about it the more I lean to option 6.  You can't prevent a determined person from killing you.  But you might be able to eliminate their desire to.  Remove the motive.

- Cancel any life insurance and give away all of your money.  Nobody will get a payout from your death. 

- If you're married, offer the spouse a divorce where they get everything -- kids, house, accounts.  If they're the one wanting to kill you, they'll probably take the offer.  If not, they'll refuse. (whether giving into threats is the "right" thing to do is for another discussion.  But you'll be alive to participate)

- If you're in debt up to your eyeballs, spend that $500 on a conversation with a reputable bankruptcy attorney who can help you. 

- If you know you've offended someone, offer them a sincere apology and the $500 as a gift of good faith.

- If you're in serious trouble, call the cops.  Put the $500 towards a lawyer if you're also on the wrong side of the law.  It's better than dying.

Addressing the root cause of someone wanting you dead will last a lot longer than five days.

[MediumTex]

Letter of law or intent?  I NEVER do EXACTLY the same thing for any five day period of my life (that I remember), not even breath the same.

Please clarify.  I am taking it from the description of the experiment, you are making it black and white - zero grey area?  If not, please explain the boundaries more clearly.  And, I'm really not trying to be a butt.  I had a physical chemistry teacher that required four decimal place accuracy and no calculators allowed (the math had to be all long hand) - 4 very difficult questions on each of his tests and you either made 100%, 75%, 50%, 25% or 0% - no curve either.  I'm sensitive to exact instructions if that is what is being proclaimed for the rules.

... Mountaineer

Just assume you are following a normal routine for the hypothetical person who you are trying to keep from being killed.  I told you what kind of person he is in the OP. 

He goes to work every day.  He goes to the store.  He might go to the movies or the mall.  He might go to a concert or a sporting event.  He drives his car most places.  He goes places alone and with his family.

He doesn't disappear for five days while hiding in a bomb shelter. 

Just visualize five days in the life of the person I described if he weren't about to get killed, and just stick with that routine.  If you have to make an extra trip to the store to spend part of your $500 that's fine, but you can't take a five day trip to India to get a $500 protection spell from a 125 year old yogi.

I think the part I'm struggling with revolves around the potential victim knowing he is going to have a killer come after him for 5 days.  That would COMPLETELY change his routine if he is sane or does not have a death wish for some strange reason, thus the boundary conditions are not realistic.  My opinion only.

... Mountaineer

Okay, then, imagine that when the victim is notified that he will be killed sometime in the net five days, he is also notified that any significant disruptions to his normal routine will result in his instant death, and there will be no way to defend against it no matter how the $500 is spent.  (Think about something like those capsules they injected into Snake Plissken's neck in Escape From New York.)

Is that enough incentive to maintain the normal routine?

Focusing on how to bug out rather than following your normal routine gets us away from the meat of the experiment.  If cleverness is needed to respond appropriately, it isn't that kind of cleverness.

[MediumTex]

But a condition of this thought experiment is that it must be intentional. The most common intentional death for males in this age range is homicide by firearm. Most of these murder weapons are going to be handguns.

Intent is often slippery, even if we must still make a judgment call about it in legal proceedings.  People often don't wake up intending to kill someone that day (though sometimes they do), and we frequently hear after the fact that the killer didn't intend to kill the person who died (though sometimes the killer freely admits he intended to kill).  Even in cases where intent is 100% clear, the killer may be telling the truth when he says that all the way up to half a second before the killing he had no intent to kill anyone.

When someone's mind is not completely rational (such as if drugs, alcohol, anger, or depression are in the picture) it can also mess with their formation of intent.

That gives away a lot, but I don't think it gives away too much.

The race of the potential victim isn't specified, and that matters. If I'm a black man, my risk of being killed in a gangland shooting--either as the intended target or a bystander--is much higher than if I am white or hispanic. But let's assume I'm a white man who lives in a pretty typical safe suburb who has no contact with gang members.

First line of the experiment says you are white.

[MediumTex]

MT, I hope you'll soon reveal just what this little exercise is about, but ok I will play along in the meantime.

It might help you identify glitches in the mental framework you use to think about risk.  It's also just an interesting game to play.

I assume that 1) once you get past the designated kill-me day, you're 100% safe again, 2) you aren't being closely monitored during the entire time period, and 3) the family is in no danger?

1) You're not 100% safe; you're just back to whatever dangers you faced before the experiment started.

2) You don't know if you're being monitored or not, but if you were being monitored every moment for vulnerability it would be virtually impossible to protect against that kind of threat for $500.

3) The family isn't in danger from your killer, but collateral damage is always possible, and even if they are unharmed in your killing, your death itself probably represents a lot of danger to them.

My reaction was similar to Mountaineer's:  I'd take a week off work and go disappear somewhere.  There are lots of ways to do this, but methods that are less traceable than others are preferred and happily they are likely to come in well under the $500 budget.  Bus or local train that enables you to pay in cash and travel without showing ID or putting your name on the ticket.  Take backpacking gear and disappear into some backcountry area that doesn't require a permit.

The experiment organizers have injected cyanide capsules into your body that will burst if you leave the area where your normal routine takes place and you will instantly die.  If you are alive at the end of five days the cyanide capsules will be removed by a doctor who looks like this:

[MediumTex]

Out of curiosity, are these $500 worth of supplies only useful to prevent your death if you KNOW the killer is coming for you? Or after this exercise is over and we learn what makes up the $500 worth of life saving supplies, should we all be going out and buying this stuff to have around for everyday protection?

Maybe the answer to the second question would give away too much info.

Although there is more than one type of $500 protection that will save your life in this experiment, the one I have in mind is good for everyday protection.

[MediumTex]

The key to solving this puzzle seems to be that the death will be so ordinary that it wouldn't get written up in the local paper.

I said in the description of the experiment that the event might make local news.

Read the experiment carefully.  You and PS might have gotten killed for simply overlooking the fact that you are a white guy whose death might make the local news.

So no death during a mugging or some shooting incident.  I'm thinking a car crash; we know this man drives everywhere.  MT says the thought experiment is about risk, so we can rethink the question to what could this fellow (or any of us) do relatively cheaply to minimize his chances of dying in the next five days even if he weren't about to be killed by an unknown assassin.  I'm going to say the potential victim should take his car for a tune-up (new brakes, tires, and wheel alignment -- something like that) and in the meantime take the bus to work for a few days if necessary (he lives near a big city so there should be public transportation, and bus travel is probably less risky than driving).

The problem is virtually all traffic deaths are accidental and you are being targeted.  Cars today are very safe.  It would be hard to intentionally kill someone in a wreck (though it's possible).

[MediumTex]

The key to solving this puzzle seems to be that the death will be so ordinary that it wouldn't get written up in the local paper.  So no death during a mugging or some shooting incident.  I'm thinking a car crash; we know this man drives everywhere.  MT says the thought experiment is about risk, so we can rethink the question to what could this fellow (or any of us) do relatively cheaply to minimize his chances of dying in the next five days even if he weren't about to be killed by an unknown assassin.  I'm going to say the potential victim should take his car for a tune-up (new brakes, tires, and wheel alignment -- something like that) and in the meantime take the bus to work for a few days if necessary (he lives near a big city so there should be public transportation, and bus travel is probably less risky than driving).

How likely is it that someone intentionally wrecks into your car?  Risk is the product of probability and value.  Since the value is a constant (our life) we only care about probability.  What intended, violent death is most common for white males in the 25 to 44 demographic?  Murder by spouse gets my vote.

However, one can condition the probability with whatever events constitute your personality, lifestyle, and associations, which is probably what the scenario is meant to address.  Who do you think is most likely to kill you?

Statistically, your killer is very likely to be your spouse, but if your normal routine is to be around your spouse for over half the day (many hours of which involve sleeping), I don't know if that's something you could mitigate for $500.

In other words, the answer is NOT to buy your wife $500 worth of flowers.

[MediumTex]

I have to start with WiseOne's assumption that you just need to survive 5 days on $500.  After that you're in no more danger.  My first instinct is to get out of town, but if that's off the table I'm still willing to play.

1) The defensive approach: 
-To prevent physical attack, buy a gun and a big dog.  Keep them with you at all times.  (tossing out waiting period for sake of argument)
-To prevent poisoning, buy bottled water and pre-packaged meals.  Never accept food from anyone.
-Don't drive your own car or walk alone.  Don't open any packages.

2) The political approach: Buy a confederate flag and a small video camera.  Video yourself burning it and post it to youtube.  Shout from the rooftops that you've received death threats from racists, the cops won't help (they don't believe me because they're probably racist too!), you don't want to hide (or they win!), and you don't know what to do.  Watch as a posse of politicized supporters assemble to protect you for the week until things cool down. 

3) The technology approach: Buy one of these http://tinyurl.com/og9zauj, the ugliest helmet mount you can find, and a T-shirt that says "Please help watch my back at www.someonestryingtokillme.com".  Make the perp extremely likely to be caught. 

4) The social approach: Tell three friends that you fear for your life.  You recognize that one of them could be the killer, but want all three to protect you for five days because the killer probably won't strike if they know they'll be caught.  Buy $500 in beer as compensation.  Just always open your own.

Those are some good ideas.  One comment is that I don't think that a dog could become effective protection for you in just five days, and such dogs cost a lot more than $500 when properly trained.

[MediumTex]

Oh no, you got me, Pet Hog! I think you may be onto something. Someone who wanted to kill you with a vehicle wouldn't have to crash into you; they could sabotage your car. Use the $500 to take the bus, walk, and bicycle.

In terms of the meta-game of minimizing your chance of dying, I strongly believe in reducing time spent on a public road, particularly in a private automobile, but probably also on a bicycle in most places. I like to walk everywhere as much as I can.

Suddenly changing from your car to walking and bicycling everyone would be a significant change in your routine because you would have to re-work your whole daily schedule to account for longer travel times.

[MediumTex]

All kidding aside, the more I think about it the more I lean to option 6.  You can't prevent a determined person from killing you.  But you might be able to eliminate their desire to.  Remove the motive.

- Cancel any life insurance and give away all of your money.  Nobody will get a payout from your death. 

- If you're married, offer the spouse a divorce where they get everything -- kids, house, accounts.  If they're the one wanting to kill you, they'll probably take the offer.  If not, they'll refuse. (whether giving into threats is the "right" thing to do is for another discussion.  But you'll be alive to participate)

- If you're in debt up to your eyeballs, spend that $500 on a conversation with a reputable bankruptcy attorney who can help you. 

- If you know you've offended someone, offer them a sincere apology and the $500 as a gift of good faith.

- If you're in serious trouble, call the cops.  Put the $500 towards a lawyer if you're also on the wrong side of the law.  It's better than dying.

Addressing the root cause of someone wanting you dead will last a lot longer than five days.

If the risk can come from anywhere, you would want to make your protection as broad and flexible as possible.

Think about how nature has equipped us to survive.  Mother Nature doesn't give us a list of risks to watch out for, but she gives us tools to deal with an infinite variety of risks.  Even with those tools, however, we are still vulnerable.

If Mother Nature asked you what additional defensive measures you would like to be less vulnerable, I don't know how impressed she would be if you asked for a street sweeper shotgun, even though street sweepers are REALLY cool.

[MediumTex]

I will wait a little longer and see if anyone else wants to play and then reveal what happened.

Some of the answers so far are very good, and I am actually seeing something in the responses that I wasn't anticipating, and which may be interesting to some of you when all is revealed.

[MachineGhost]

If anyone would like to ask any additional questions about the event, I will answer them if I can without giving anything away.

Body armor?

[MediumTex]

You find out that sometime in the next five days you will be intentionally killed by another person.

Is there something significant about the 5-day window?

Is this the sort of risk which is always present, but that somehow my eyes have been opened to it?

Five days aren't significant.

The risk and the defensive measure(s) are things you are probably already aware of.