When Will QE3 Be Announced?

[MediumTex]

I predict it will be Thursday August 18, 2011.

Approximate size: $800 billion.

[Storm]

I don't know the exact date - let me throw out July 18th just for the heck of it - but I do predict it will not be called QE3.  QE has a really negative opinion in the media and to the public, so I predict they will come up with a new name for it, if only for purely marketing reasons.

Be prepared for gold to grind lower over the next couple of months, as May/June/July are typically the doldrums, combined with QE2 running out of steam.

[AdamA]

September 2, 2011.  600 Billion.  

It's my lock of the year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MhAmmge-Xk

[Tortoise]

QE has a really negative opinion in the media and to the public, so I predict they will come up with a new name for it, if only for purely marketing reasons.

The funny thing is that "Quantitative Easing" is already a euphemism, one that takes something simple but undesirable--debasing the currency--and dresses it up in a white lab coat by making it sound complicated yet inexplicably palatable.  The fact that even QE is picking up a negative connotation now is pretty sad.

[fnord123]

June 18th 2011, 875B. and it will be called Fuzzy Rainbow American Unifying Dollarization (or FRAUD for short)

I'll take November 5th, 2011 for $900B.

[Pkg Man]

I predict no QEIII, baring some external shock to the economy such as a terrorist attack.

[MediumTex]

I predict no QEIII, baring some external shock to the economy such as a terrorist attack.

Really?

You think we have self-sustaining economic growth at this point or the political will to let the economy slip back into recession without more Fed intervention?

That surprises me. 

You may be right, it just surprises me.

[Reub]

Jim Rickards wrote that QE2 will continue for a long time just on its own momentum and that QE3 will therefore not be necessary.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... e_QE!.html

[AdamA]

QE2 will continue for a long time just on its own momentum and that QE3 will therefore not be necessary.

The same way QE1 did?

[Coffee]

The correct answer is: During the Apprentice.

[Pkg Man]

I predict no QEIII, baring some external shock to the economy such as a terrorist attack.

Really?

You think we have self-sustaining economic growth at this point or the political will to let the economy slip back into recession without more Fed intervention?

That surprises me. 

You may be right, it just surprises me.

Actually I haven't a clue what will happen, I just enjoy taking the contrarian view 

But I do think that the economy can avoid another recession without additional stimulus.  Jobs are coming back, even if the unemployment rate remains high (partly due to the continual extension of unemployment benefits, IMHO), industrial production is growing at a fairly rapid pace, retail sales are growing, and gas prices are poised to fall significantly.  GDP was disappointing last quarter, but at least some of the weakness was due to weather.  You've also got several Fed Governors who are beginning to worry about inflation.

I am not at all saying happy days are here again, but I think that the economy can limp along without additional help from the Fed. 

I'll stick by my prediction. 

[MediumTex]

I want to change my prediction to the middle of October.

For some reason, I am feeling a lot more strongly about October than I did when I originally posted my August prediction.

[moda0306]

More importantly (to me) than WHEN QE3 will be, is what QE3 will purchase.  I predict some "creative" purchases outside the realm of short-term treasury bonds.

[MediumTex]

More importantly (to me) than WHEN QE3 will be, is what QE3 will purchase.  I predict some "creative" purchases outside the realm of short-term treasury bonds.

No matter what the Fed says, we will never really know exactly what any of this QE money is being used to buy.

[moda0306]

MT,

I knew there was no way people were actually still purchasing Chrysler vehicles... I can just see Ben going to a dealer and being like "I'll take them all."... with his "Fed'it Card" in hand.

[AdamA]

I want to change my prediction to the middle of October.

For some reason, I am feeling a lot more strongly about October than I did when I originally posted my August prediction.

I'm sticking to Sep 2.  It's right before a long weekend.  They love to sneak that stuff in when people aren't paying close attention.

For this reason, I also like Coffee's predicition:  During The Apprentice, especially Celebrity Apprentice. 

[smurff]

I'm sticking to Sep 2.  It's right before a long weekend.  They love to sneak that stuff in when people aren't paying close attention.

If there is a major natural disaster or terrorist act in July or August, QE3 might take place then.  The media spend so much time rehashing such events that the PTB know they can sneak stuff in then, too.  Oh, I forgot to add celebrity murder--especially when another celebrity is the alleged killer.  No one was allowed to pay attention to anything else when OJ was trying to escape on the LA freeway in a Ford Bronco, or when he was on trial.  The media didn't cover anything else.  Great time to sneak something in.

[MediumTex]

I believe that QE3 will be called something other than QE3, even by the smartasses like the Zero Hedge crowd.

Here are some options:

QE2.1
QE2.5
QE2-lite
QE2-redux
QE2-director's cut
E=QEsquared
FedGoneWild
BernankeDoesBalanceSheet

[MediumTex]

Anyone else want to get in on the QE3 derby?

[Pkg Man]

Saw this in the Wall Street Journal economic survey:

QE3?

Do you think another round of quantitative easing by the Fed will be needed before the end of the year?
No  94%
Yes  6%

Selection of comments:
Yes, but it won't be resumed until Q1:2012.
Not unless recovery truly falters AND inflation/inflation expectations weaken significantly.
Economy and jobs responses so far to policy distressingly small.
Not unless the economy continues to exhibit its current weakness.

QE3 Chances
If economic data continue to disappoint through the summer, what are the chances (0-100) the Fed will pursue another round of quantitative easing by year end?

Average: 28%

Selection of comments:
Economy would have to look really weak to justify.
'Do something' is the motto even if benefits are dubious.
It would take more than disappointment to trigger this.
It would probably be seen as a political move.

[Storm]

Not sure it is the actual QE3, but QE 2.1 (Windows Millennium Edition) was just announced:

http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-0 ... ryid=81588

It's a stealth bailout of the banks masquerading as a $50,000 non-recourse loan to unemployed squatters who have stopped making mortgage payments:

The new initiative is expected to provide assistance to up to 30,000 homeowners, with loans averaging $35,000 each. Loans may be used to pay a portion of monthly mortgage bills, including missed mortgage payments or past due charges including principal, interest, taxes, insurances, and attorney fees.

Did anyone have June 20th? 

[l82start]

June 18th 2011, 875B. and it will be called Fuzzy Rainbow American Unifying Dollarization  (or FRAUD for short)

not dead on but you came close....

[Storm]

I think this is QE3:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-2 ... o-end.html

Not an explicit program per se, but it looks like Bernanke is going to reinvest the coupon payments into more treasuries.  It's hard to believe the Fed has $300 billion in coupon payments alone... how much treasury debt do they own?  Something like $2 trillion now?

[cabronjames]

I think this is QE3:but it looks like Bernanke is going to reinvest the coupon payments into more treasuries.  It's hard to believe the Fed has $300 billion in coupon payments alone... how much treasury debt do they own?  Something like $2 trillion now?

Wow.  I do auto div reinvest of EDV & VUSTX in my Vanguard VBS IRA.  Bernanke is kinda doing the same by reinvesting the coupon/divs I suppose.

[MediumTex]

Anybody want in on this action?

I've got middle of October.