GDP 5%

[madbean]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/24/busin ... rcent.html

So has the death of the U.S. economy been greatly exaggerated once again or are the visions of doom yet for an appointed time?

[rickb]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/24/busin ... rcent.html

So has the death of the U.S. economy been greatly exaggerated once again or are the visions of doom yet for an appointed time?

From http://www.harrybrowne.org/articles/InvestmentRules.htm:

Rule #4: No one can predict the future.

Events in the investment markets result from the decisions of millions of different people. Investor advisors have no more ability to predict the future actions of human beings than psychics and fortune-tellers do. And so events never unfold as we were so sure they would.

Yes, there have been forecasts that came true. But the only reason we notice them is because it's so exceptional for even one to come true. We forget about all the failed predictions because they're so commonplace.

No one can reliably tell you what stocks will do next year, whether we'll have more inflation, or how the economy will perform.

So

has the death of the U.S. economy been greatly exaggerated once again - absolutely, because no one can predict the future

or

are the visions of doom yet for an appointed time? - absolutely, because no one can predict the future

In the fullness of time, there will eventually be a doom event that obliterates not just the US economy but all life on Earth, e.g. the Sun will turn into a red giant making life on Earth impossible (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun#Earth.27s_fate).  The Sun will become a red giant in a billion years (more or less).  Visions of doom are rooted in scientific reality.  The salient question is not "if" but "when". 

Will the US economy persist until the Sun turns into a red giant?  My guess is no.

So, when does the US economy die?  Some time before then.

Is it tomorrow?  Could be, but I don't know.

Is it within a year?  Could be, but I don't know.

Is it within 10 years?  Could be, but I don't know.

Is it within 100 years?  Could be, but I don't know.

Is it within 1,000,000,000 years?  Yes.