Shrugged,I Shrugged wrote: There was a long email letter by John Mauldin today, making the case for a prolonged secular rise in the value of the dollar, based on what's being done in other economies and their currencies. He expects long bond yields to go even lower, gold goes nowhere or down, cash remains trash. For stocks, he's expecting a crash which will then become the foundation of a long bull market.
If true, it's not a rosy near term scenario for the PP. One thing HB thought was that the strong component could pull the whole PP along. Can bonds do that, starting at the current level? I doubt it. Nevertheless, I don't have a better idea.
I look at it like this... Mauldin has a newsletter so he has to have an opinion, right? If he wants readers to stay interested he has to make some calls about the future. Sounds like he is hedging his bets on gold (it goes nowhere OR down... that covers two of the three possibilities). Stocks going down to a level where a new bull market begins? Well, that is pretty much what happens with stocks, right? If he can give dates then I might be interested.
No, not enough juice in LTTs from this level to keep you in the black if both stocks and gold go down a lot, but, in Mauldin's scenario, you are in a way better position with the PP than investors who are mostly in stocks and bonds, with most of the bonds being of a much shorter duration. So a quarter of the PP rises in value, half falls, and you sit on a bunch of cash to scoop up beaten down assets.
As you say, tough to come up with an idea that is a lot better.