Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Xan
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:35 pm

The last release or two of IE have, somewhat surprisingly, been pretty good.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:32 am

IE is the only browser my employer allows on its computers, and they haven't upgraded in a long time, so we're stuck with an old version.  I use Chrome at home thanks to your suggestion, and I'm much happier.

By the way, I should have pointed out that for the PP, GTU may be better than GLD due to the discount/premium thingy.  When gold is riding high and you're ready to sell some to rebalance, it will likely be at a premium, so you will get a better selling price.  When gold is low, and you're rebalancing into it, it will likely be at a discount, so you will get a better buying price.  Of course, in practice it won't always work exactly like the theory, but it shouldn't be too far off.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:38 am

stuper1 wrote: By the way, I should have pointed out that for the PP, GTU may be better than GLD due to the discount/premium thingy.  When gold is riding high and you're ready to sell some to rebalance, it will likely be at a premium, so you will get a better selling price.  When gold is low, and you're rebalancing into it, it will likely be at a discount, so you will get a better buying price.  Of course, in practice it won't always work exactly like the theory, but it shouldn't be too far off.
I agree, and do this myself, but I hedge my bets by also holding IAU and physical.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:36 pm

Also, ouch!

Image

A day after the Fed's soothing words pumped it up, no less. ::)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:15 pm

With a few more days like today, I predict a surge of new interest in the PP.  8)
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:39 pm

Tyler wrote: With a few more days like today, I predict a surge of new interest in the PP.  8)
Not so fast. The rest of the components didn't offer much support. Equities down 2.07, Gold up .14 and LTT's down .4.

Treasury yields moved up on a 300 point decline AND the stronger dollar. Can you imagine if the EU had cut rates...we'd be down 1000.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:44 pm

The support doesn't necessarily come in lockstep with the declines.  Give it a little while to show up.  I like to use peaktotrough.com, focusing on the line showing the overall PP performance and including say a decade of history along with recent results.  The PP doesn't always go upward, but the down parts are much smaller and briefer compared to most other portfolios.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dragoncar » Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:58 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Tyler wrote: With a few more days like today, I predict a surge of new interest in the PP.  8)
Not so fast. The rest of the components didn't offer much support. Equities down 2.07, Gold up .14 and LTT's down .4.

Treasury yields moved up on a 300 point decline AND the stronger dollar. Can you imagine if the EU had cut rates...we'd be down 1000.
not to mention GTU down .3%    I have a surge of new interest in hitting my head against my desk
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Gosso » Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:50 pm

I haven't seen stocks move like this since Shakira's "Hips Don't Lie": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUT5rEU6pqM
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:25 pm

dragoncar wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:
Tyler wrote: With a few more days like today, I predict a surge of new interest in the PP.  8)
Not so fast. The rest of the components didn't offer much support. Equities down 2.07, Gold up .14 and LTT's down .4.

Treasury yields moved up on a 300 point decline AND the stronger dollar. Can you imagine if the EU had cut rates...we'd be down 1000.
not to mention GTU down .3%    I have a surge of new interest in hitting my head against my desk
Lol.  Relax guys -- I'm just stirring the pot.  It's a fun day for knee-jerk threads on various investing boards. 
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:55 am

Seems like just yesterday I was feeling bad about taking profits. I had not hit exactly 35% in stocks, and I also only did a half-assed rebalance, preferring to ease into it and finish at the point where the stock share would have hit 35%. That day never came. I really thought stocks would go wild after breaching 2000  (S&P). Needless to say, now I feel great about the premature rebalancing that I did do.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:29 pm

dualstow wrote: Seems like just yesterday I was feeling bad about taking profits. I had not hit exactly 35% in stocks, and I also only did a half-assed rebalance, preferring to ease into it and finish at the point where the stock share would have hit 35%. That day never came. I really thought stocks would go wild after breaching 2000  (S&P). Needless to say, now I feel great about the premature rebalancing that I did do.
That's good to hear. I was waiting for my stock allocation to hit the 35% rebalance band, and it got pretty close--but then, just short of the mark, stocks started falling like a rock.

This is making me consider switching to 20/30 rebalance bands going forward.
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