TEOTWAWKI?

[Pointedstick]

Used to; don't anymore. I think people tend to overestimate the risk posed by large and relatively incomprehensible faraway problems like global warming and hyperinflation. And they tend to underestimate local risks: tornadoes in Oklahoma, hailstorms in Texas, hurricanes on the Atlantic and gulf coasts, wildfires and earthquakes and drought in CA, etc. That's to say nothing of the risks posed by bad personal decision-making, like buying a house for zero down when you're broke! Most people (probably nobody here thankfully) should focus on avoiding those risks before they start worrying about hyperinflation.

[Benko]

This is the second person I respect who has suggested that that are similarities between the world now and 1939:

http://forum.dansimmons.com/ubbthreads/ ... Post155894

I've never been naive enough to believe that history actually repeats itself. As someone who's read more history than anything else since I was 7 years old, I know that there are always new variables, unique circumstances, and --perhaps most important -- unique individuals, what the leftist press likes to call"World Historical Figures" as if they're generated by some chronosynclastic machine at regular intervals -- which make every age, every generation, every glimmer of human progress, and every reversion to the darker aspects of the Dark Ages unique which have predominated human history and pre-history.

Nonetheless, for the last two or three years I've had a general pall hanging over my spirit. I finally realized it was because both logically and subconsciously, the flood of daily news from both the U.S. and around the world made me feel more and more as if I -- we, all of us -- were living in 1939 and could do nothing about what was coming our way.

As I say, I don't see history as "repeating itself" in any sort of circular way, but I do see important eras and trends in history -- glimmers of real human freedom as represented by American philosophes and American revolution fighters and the earliest French Revolution intellectuals in the late 1700's, the rise of totalitarianism as an efficient and preferred-by-nations'-populations in the 1930's, eras of total chaos as so often experienced in the local warlord Europe circa 900 A.D. to the 1500's, and so forth -- more as unpredictable high and low tides in the sea that washes up on the shores of all our lives and national histories.

I no longer feel that America, American leaders, and the American people -- all of us -- are living blithely in the isolationist U.S.A. of 1939, despite the headlines in my local and Denver papers being "Local Marathon Runner Runs 15 Marathons in 15 Days" and the systematic slaughter of hundreds of captured Iraqi soldiers by Sunni uber-fanatics overrunning Iraq in two weeks as the German armored divisions overran France in 1940, is to be found on page 17B. And while the hopeful AOL headline announces "Secretary Kerry begins serious attempt to cooperate with Iran over Iraq crisis."

The tide of totalitarianism -- primarily Jihadist-sharia-law totalitarianism, more fanatical and less reasoning than the Japanese imperial bushido insanity of the 1920's and '30's and 40's -- is on the rise everywhere. The machine-gunnings of 80 or so American POWs captured by the German Army, part of the Nazi war machine, were so few and far between that they led to a "take no prisoners" war cry in the advancing Allied armies.

Yet we accept these pre-medieval barbarisms -- public decapitations, the hanging of women for dressing improperly, the execution verdict of a pregnant woman with another child at home because she won't renounce her Christianity, the attacks on Christians and their ancient churches throughout the Islamic world, the kidnapping and slave-sale of young girls who only wanted a bit of education, the carefully video and photographically recorded and reported (by the killers) slaughter of unarmed POWs, the fall of the Black Flag Curtain of al Qaeda, Taliban, Boko Harem and other Islamist fascist groups over region after region, nation after nation -- and we watch our sports programs, stay deeply involved with "Dancing With the Stars", talk about unreal reality programs about hillbillies over the watercooler at work, and generally ignore the rise of barbarism and totalitarianism around the world that's consuming entire societies like the 2004 Thai-Indonesian tsunami (shown in the extraordinary movie "The Impossible") that killed and maimed so many thousands of people and swept away hundreds of villages and resorts along entire coastlines.

We rushed military and NGO aid to the help of the tsunami victims within days . . . within hours. We're doing NOTHING to help the victims of the totalitarian tsunami washing over Crimea, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Libya, the South China Sea, Lebanon, Nigeria, Kenya, and scores of other nations and regions.

I don't feel in my gut and heart that we're living in 1939 America any longer. I feel that it's late-November or early-December of 1941 America and we celebrate our lucky isolationism and focus on our entertainment, flagpole sitters, college students stuffing themselves into phonebooths and eating goldfish, on Kim Kardashian, on "Fucking Around with the Stars", and the lead headline fact that some guy ran 15 marathons 15 days and that President Obama has executed another "executive order" banning the last vestiges of personal opinion troubled by LGBT advances..

Since I refuse to be the Prophet of Doom -- or perhaps because I once played that role with my novel FLASHBACK which earned me good reviews from actual reviewers but one- or zero-star reviews by the hundreds on our democractic (small and large "d") Amazon review space -- along with obscene personal attacks, literal death threats, and my second official fatwa from a British imam -- I'll just say to you here that I may soon be commenting much less on the diahrretic rush of near-insane domestic and international news pouring from every media orifice.

In the late 1930's, the political outcast Winston Churchill had to decide whether his beloved England (not the "United Kingdom" but his England with its king then queen and worldwide empire)-- had gone insane with its constant and formal policy of appeasement toward Hitler, Mussolini, and other totalitarian regimes, or whether he, Churchill, in resisting it all while in the political wilderness, had remained perhaps the Last Sane Englishman. Churchhill had the strength -- or ego -- of never doubting his own sanity or political positions.

I may not have his (often misplaced) sense-of-self and confidence in his nation and its people (although I've had the latter until very, very recently), so I'll probably choose silence in preference to anger that could too easily turn into rants.

Good luck to all of us. If you're a person of faith who can pray for this rising world-tide of ever-increasing barbarism and totalitarianism to recede on its own or through some divine intervention, please say those prayers.

Otherwise -- given the leadership and media consensus we currently have in this country -- (and with apologies to jobiska, my wife, and all others who can't stand such language) -- I believe that we are well and truly fucked. And, most tragically, that we currently deserve to be.

Sincerely,
Dan

Edited by Dan Simmons (06/17/14 09:53 AM)

[Reub]

Everything is just fine! Just go about your business.

[dualstow]

It seems almost a forgone conclusion that the U.S. will give way to another superpower, perhaps in a generation or two.
Natural disasters will always be around, and someday the sun will burn out.
There's a lot of 'end of the Roman Empire' stuff in our culture, like people wearing sweat pants at the airport.

But, I think people felt the same way in the 1970s.

I'd like to see how far artificial intelligence gets before mankind devolves too far.

[Mountaineer]

When I hear about or see on the media a variety of "stuff" that either grabs my attention or makes me want to throw up, I try my darndest to ask myself:  "What am I going to do with that information?"  Most of the time, the answer is "nothing", so I lighten up and focus on things that really matter.  The course of action that I've given increased priority to since I retired from paid work several years ago is:

1. Focus on the Stephen Covey idea of "circle of concern vs. circle of influence".  If a topic lies within my circle of influence, I might try to do something that would help someone.  If it lies outside of that circle, I do my best not to worry about it; i.e. I do not worry about things that are out of my control.

2. I rarely watch the "news" on TV or listen to it on the radio.  I unsubscribed from the local and national newspapers.  Those sources are, in my opinion, aimed at sensationalism and are heavily biased toward some agenda.  I do read internet sourced local, national, and world news summaries but try to limit my exposure to no more than 5 or 10 minutes most days.  I have found life to be so much more peaceful with this strategy; I found that I had been getting myself all worked up over various issues to no positive benefit.

3. I became much more involved in Christianity via regularly attending church worship and Bible studies, much reading and study, and hanging around more with fellow Christians and less with antagonistic nonbelievers.  I have come to the conclusion, much like Benko, that the world is an evil place filled with evil people and has been that way in recorded history.  Civilizations rise and fall, I expect the US has already had its moment of glory and will go the way of all other civilizations that were once great (great by man's terms); whether it out goes kicking and screaming or silently disintegrates is the question. Whether it is economic collapse or moral collapse is to be determined (I suspect they are closely linked); from my view, we are closer to the end than the beginning.  However, life's struggles really do not matter all that much to me anymore; they are just anoyances on the journey.  I have come to realize everything is a gift from God.  Temporal and eternal life is a gift, friends and family are a gift, food and shelter are gifts, stuff is a gift, intellect is a gift, the freedoms in USA are a gift, civil authorities who provide order and reduce the chaos are a gift, even daily struggles are a gift that can draw us closer to God - I try to enjoy these gifts and help others see those gifts are available to them too - as long as I'm on the bright side of the grass that is  .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics ... e-us-money

... Mountaineer

 

[Jan Van]

...global warming...  tornadoes in Oklahoma, hailstorms in Texas, hurricanes on the Atlantic and gulf coasts, wildfires and earthquakes and drought in CA, etc...

Maybe those are related?

As to the original question, I'd say nope...

[Pointedstick]

...global warming...  tornadoes in Oklahoma, hailstorms in Texas, hurricanes on the Atlantic and gulf coasts, wildfires and earthquakes and drought in CA, etc...

Maybe those are related?

As to the original question, I'd say nope...

Could be.

But by the same token, those weather conditions have been true for more than a hundred years of recorded history, so it would be the case that existing trends were being exacerbated by it, not being caused where they did not previously exist. And in any event, I have no power to alter the trend of global warming, so it does me no good to worry about it. We humans will simply have to deal with the consequences, which, after all, we seem to be much better at doing than predicting and staving off future disasters.

[Kshartle]

Would you define the 2008 financial crisis as an economic catastophe? The bailouts to prevent collapse and massive bankruptcies and prevent even more defaults on mortages was paid for with borrowed and printed money. The problem is much bigger now. So the crash has to happen again, and now it has to happen with zero percent interest rates and twice the outstanding debt.

So it might just be a long period of decline as the Americans keep getting relatively poorer, or the meme that the US is sovlent (and the dollar is sound and should stay the reserve currency) dissapears quickly and Americans have to pay back their debts to other nations and live off American production.

The latter scenario means a transfer of trillions of dollars worth of property to other nations and a reduction in consumption of 500+ billion annually.

btw - who is going to pay for the boomers retireing? I guess maybe they just won't retire. Of course then what jobs are young people going to get since they can't replace older more skilled workers. Maybe they'll all start their own businesses

We are going to have another crash and it's going to be a lot worse than 2008. The government is already defaulting though devaluation. This will only increase.

[Kshartle]

There are lots of smart guys here who think the current economic situation is sustainable. Ok we dissagree, big whoop. I have a couple questions though? Who is going to pay for the boomers and what will happen if interest rates rise due to inflation? If you don't think infl rising prices will keep getting worse then why? What do you think is going to prevent them from going up in the face of zero percent rates?

If you can't answer these two modest questions, if your only answer is "I don't know, things will just work out", then aren't you really just having blind faith that God or some white knight(s) will swoop in and save the day? Doesn't that seem weird and perhaps naive?

[Pointedstick]

There are lots of smart guys here who think the current economic situation is sustainable. Ok we dissagree, big whoop.

Nothing is "sustainable." Nothing. The question is how long anything will last and how traumatic the transition will be. I tend to believe that things often last for longer than we think they can, and the transition to the next thing is softer than many fear, that's all.

I have a couple questions though? Who is going to pay for the boomers

I think the answer is a combination of higher taxes and more borrowing.

and what will happen if interest rates rise due to inflation? If you don't think infl rising prices will keep getting worse then why? What do you think is going to prevent them from going up in the face of zero percent rates?

Yes at some point infl prices  will probably rise appreciably and it will hurt. However, after a painful period, I think they will then fall back down to moderate levels.

[Kshartle]

I have a couple questions though? Who is going to pay for the boomers

I think the answer is a combination of higher taxes and more borrowing.

Ok not trying to nit pick or derail and I will leave you the last word if you choose to respond:

How can the Americans afford higher taxes and higher prices when they are already saving nothing? Something has to be sacrificed, the seed crop for future productivity.

Who will be loaning the US government money? The Fed has been financing almost 100% of the budget deficit for years now. How can the US ever repay a legitimate loan (a non-central bank loan)? If the answer is "It can't", then you must think people will just donate to the government to pay for the boomers. Why would anyone do that?

[Pointedstick]

I think the answer is a combination of higher taxes and more borrowing.

Ok not trying to nit pick or derail and I will leave you the last word if you choose to respond:

How can the Americans afford higher taxes and higher prices when they are already saving nothing? Something has to be sacrificed, the seed crop for future productivity.

They can't; I agree with you. These anticipated higher taxes will impoverish the productive younger people at the expense of the older people drawing Social Security and Medicare. I mean, that's the whole point of these systems, right? Transfer wealth from the productive to the old. That's simply what they are.

Who will be loaning the US government money? The Fed has been financing almost 100% of the budget deficit for years now. How can the US ever repay a legitimate loan (a non-central bank loan)? If the answer is "It can't", then you must think people will just donate to the government to pay for the boomers. Why would anyone do that?

Nobody will "donate" the money. They will be forced to pay through taxation. That which is politically unpalatable to tax will, as you point out, likely be largely financed by the Fed and the banking system, (which after all is set up to do just that). However, as weird as it seems, some non-Fed entities continue to be willing to purchase U.S. government debt. Foreign central banks, pension trustees, some investors, etc. It may not make sense, but there you have it.

Will this system end at some point? Yes. Will it end very soon in a cataclysmic financial explosion? I don't think so, but I could be wrong. And if I am, I'm happy to have 25% of my liquid financial wealth in gold!

[Mountaineer]

When I hear about or see on the media a variety of "stuff" that either grabs my attention or makes me want to throw up, I try my darndest to ask myself:  "What am I going to do with that information?"  Most of the time, the answer is "nothing", so I lighten up and focus on things that really matter.  The course of action that I've given increased priority to since I retired from paid work several years ago is:

1. Focus on the Stephen Covey idea of "circle of concern vs. circle of influence".  If a topic lies within my circle of influence, I might try to do something that would help someone.  If it lies outside of that circle, I do my best not to worry about it; i.e. I do not worry about things that are out of my control.

2. I rarely watch the "news" on TV or listen to it on the radio.  I unsubscribed from the local and national newspapers.  Those sources are, in my opinion, aimed at sensationalism and are heavily biased toward some agenda.  I do read internet sourced local, national, and world news summaries but try to limit my exposure to no more than 5 or 10 minutes most days.  I have found life to be so much more peaceful with this strategy; I found that I had been getting myself all worked up over various issues to no positive benefit.

3. I became much more involved in Christianity via regularly attending church worship and Bible studies, much reading and study, and hanging around more with fellow Christians and less with antagonistic nonbelievers.  I have come to the conclusion, much like Benko, that the world is an evil place filled with evil people and has been that way in recorded history.  Civilizations rise and fall, I expect the US has already had its moment of glory and will go the way of all other civilizations that were once great (great by man's terms); whether it out goes kicking and screaming or silently disintegrates is the question. Whether it is economic collapse or moral collapse is to be determined (I suspect they are closely linked); from my view, we are closer to the end than the beginning.  However, life's struggles really do not matter all that much to me anymore; they are just anoyances on the journey.  I have come to realize everything is a gift from God.  Temporal and eternal life is a gift, friends and family are a gift, food and shelter are gifts, stuff is a gift, intellect is a gift, the freedoms in USA are a gift, civil authorities who provide order and reduce the chaos are a gift, even daily struggles are a gift that can draw us closer to God - I try to enjoy these gifts and help others see those gifts are available to them too - as long as I'm on the bright side of the grass that is  .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics ... e-us-money

... Mountaineer

Mountaineer, this is a great post.  I agree with much of it, though I haven't progressed as far on some fronts as I'd like to.  I've addressed #2, and partially #1.  I'm just getting started on journey #3. 

I do agree that the world is full of evil, and always has been.  I don't believe that humanity is improving.  We've made wonderful advances in technology, but we are no more capable of harnessing it for good instead of evil than the guys painting pictures on cave walls. 

One thing I might differ with you and others on is this:  I don't think the U.S. is any worse than it was in the past.  I think it's worse in some ways, and better in others.  Agreed.  When I look back at the racial hatred that existed (particularly here in the South) in the past, that was no golden age.  There were some things that were better then, but some things are better now.  Our nation's history is great ... full of great advance and goodness, and full of great evil, brutality and greed.  Nevertheless, I'm very happy to live here, and I think we're all fortunate to be alive now ... and here. Agreed.

... Mountaineer

[Xan]

When I look back at the racial hatred that existed (particularly here in the South) in the past, that was no golden age.

Just to clarify, lest the South get a bad rap: racial hatred was (and is) by no means confined to the South, even in the "bad old days".  The popular idea these days is that all blacks were treated like rented mules in the South, which was certainly not true.  Also it's popular to believe that only white people owned slaves, while the largest slaveholder in Louisiana at the time of the war was a black woman.  Meanwhile in the North it was often simply illegal even to be black.

[Mountaineer]

The eyes of Texas are upon you
The eyes of Texas are upon you
All the live long days
The eyes of Texas are upon you
And you cannot get away

Do not think you can escape them
From night till early in the morn
The eyes of Texas are upon you
Till Gabriel blows his horn

... Mountaineer (former Texan adoptee) 
Texas would be my second most favorite state, next to almost heaven, West Virginia, that is! 

[Libertarian666]

On this site and others, I often see dire predictions about the future; typically hyperinflation caused by increases in money supply.  I'm wondering how many of us hold such a viewpoint, and what evidence there is to back it up.  In other words, do you think that the U.S. economy is on an unsustainable course that is very likely to result in an economic catastrophe.  I'd define economic catastrophe to be a default on U.S. government debt, extreme inflation, etc.

Yes.

[Mountaineer]

tech,

Where have you been?  I've missed your thoughts.

... Mountaineer

[Kriegsspiel]

... Mountaineer (former Texan adoptee) 
Texas would be my second most favorite state, next to almost heaven, West Virginia, that is! 

Amen!

[Libertarian666]

tech,

Where have you been?  I've missed your thoughts.

... Mountaineer

I haven't really been anywhere, but I have started a new (contract) job in Dallas that has disrupted my free time; funny how that goes!

I'm now settling into that and have some more time in the evenings when my wife isn't with me; she is staying behind at our house most of the week because she hates being stuck in a hotel room all day.

So I should be around "here" a bit more. Thanks for asking!

[Mountaineer]

Are freedom and democracy obsolete?

August 14, 2014 by Gene Veith

The Prime Minister of Hungary has said what many people around the world have been thinking:  That freedom and democracy are obsolete.  With today’s complex economic and social problems, the democratic process is always checking and balancing itself, making it just too slow and polarizing, as evidenced by the political paralysis in the United States.  The most successful models that nations should be emulating, he says, are the authoritarian systems of Russia, China, Turkey, and Singapore.

From Harold Meyerson,  Hungary’s prime minister a champion for illiberalism – The Washington Post:
In a speech in late July, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told his countrymen that the nations whose systems are “capable of making us competitive”? in the global economy “are not Western, not liberal, not liberal democracies, maybe not even democracies.”? Those countries, he continued, were Russia, China, Turkey and Singapore.

If Orbán’s conclusions sound alien to Western ears, some of his arguments are all too familiar. He cited as evidence of democratic dysfunction the political divisions and economic inequality in the United States. He accused the European Union of neglecting the interests of whites in favor of immigrants. Hopping merrily between leftist, rightist and centrist critiques of the political paralysis and economic chasms that characterize many Western nations, our own most particularly, Orbán concluded that the solution to these myriad malaises was illiberal nationalism.

Mr. Meyerson is on the leftist side of things, so he identifies this kind of authoritarianism as an alternative to “liberal”? (that is, “free”?) economics and governments with conservatives.  But notice how President Obama is making the same complaints about America’s political system and making policy by executive edict rather than legislative process.

How would you answer Mr. Orbán?  Or does he have a point?



... Mountaineer

[Kshartle]

Are freedom and democracy obsolete?

Tyranny of the majority (democracy) seems like a real nice idea to some. At the start there seems to be a lot of benefits, especially compared to whatever preceeded it.

Eventually people figure out that they can just vote for a living and the economy gets crushed with unpayable debt and inflation.

So those two terms are basically in opposition to each other. It's not freedom that's obsolete, we haven't tried that yet, it's democracy that needs to go away.

[Pointedstick]

Tyranny of the majority sucks, but it's not clear that tyranny of the minority is any better. In fact, there's loads of historical evidence to suggest that it's often much worse.

[Benko]

That freedom and democracy are obsolete.  With today’s complex economic and social problems, the democratic process is always checking and balancing itself, making it just too slow and polarizing, as evidenced by the political paralysis in the United States. 

It is not a bug it is a feature.  It didn't work well enough to stop Obamacare, but it has stopped our current white house resident from more silliness.

“Government is not supposed to be efficient. The Founders recognized how bad things happen in efficient governmental systems.… Efficiency breeds tyranny.”?

http://www.redstate.com/2014/08/04/comm ... stituency/