Takes him forever to get to the bloody point, but what do you all think?
http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1 ... PSIM513/PR
Stansberry Research Video
Moderator: Global Moderator
Stansberry Research Video
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: Stansberry Research Video
Moda,
Can you provide a little information about what the video covers?
Can you provide a little information about what the video covers?
Last edited by MediumTex on Wed May 18, 2011 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Stansberry Research Video
The video argues that we'll see a collapse of the dollar within a very short period of time.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: Stansberry Research Video
It won't happen.
The world needs the dollar, in part, because there is nothing remotely close to being able to replace it.
If you look at the dollar action lately, it's strengthening, not weakening.
The same arguments could have been made about the yen for many years, and it has only strengthened.
The dollar collapse arguments are what I might call a "Flight to Simplicity". In uncertain times, people crave simple narratives, even if the narratives have unhappy endings. See the end of the world narratives in many religions for a spiritual analog to what I am describing.
In reality, things can just drag on and continue sucking for a LONG TIME.
The world needs the dollar, in part, because there is nothing remotely close to being able to replace it.
If you look at the dollar action lately, it's strengthening, not weakening.
The same arguments could have been made about the yen for many years, and it has only strengthened.
The dollar collapse arguments are what I might call a "Flight to Simplicity". In uncertain times, people crave simple narratives, even if the narratives have unhappy endings. See the end of the world narratives in many religions for a spiritual analog to what I am describing.
In reality, things can just drag on and continue sucking for a LONG TIME.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Stansberry Research Video
I agree MT...
Just making sure I wasn't discounting any of his arguments too much.
It takes him forever to get to his point, and when he does his logic seems pretty flawed... I just thought people would want to pick apart his individual points.
Just making sure I wasn't discounting any of his arguments too much.
It takes him forever to get to his point, and when he does his logic seems pretty flawed... I just thought people would want to pick apart his individual points.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: Stansberry Research Video
[heavily edited because site I was referencing doesn't exist anymore]
I think this is the very long video that someone recently sent me.
While it's basically a sales pitch, the author may be right about many of the troubles he sees ahead.
The author hints at several solutions that you will only learn about if you buy his products.
Bad luck for him, you can read about them on other sites. One of the big solutions he was talking about appears to be "a working farm".
The site that mentioned all his solutions has disappeared, but one of the links is still in Google's cache.
I think this is the very long video that someone recently sent me.
While it's basically a sales pitch, the author may be right about many of the troubles he sees ahead.
The author hints at several solutions that you will only learn about if you buy his products.
Bad luck for him, you can read about them on other sites. One of the big solutions he was talking about appears to be "a working farm".
The site that mentioned all his solutions has disappeared, but one of the links is still in Google's cache.
Last edited by Pres on Wed May 18, 2011 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Stansberry Research Video
About the USD, this is from a free excerpt of the latest GEAB newsletter:
The end of QE2, the symbol of and factor in the explosive fusion [of the trends of global geopolitical dislocation and economic/financial crisis] now underway, represents the end of an era, that where the "US Dollar was the currency of the United States and the rest of the world’s problem": from July 2011, the US Dollar will openly become the main threat weighing on the rest of the world and the United States’ crucial problem (3).
Summer 2011 will confirm that the US Federal Reserve has lost its bet: the U.S. economy has, in fact, never left the "Very Great Depression" (4) which it entered in 2008 despite the trillions of dollars injected (5), as the vast majority of Americans are perfectly aware of (6). Unable to launch a QE3 (even unofficially through its Primary Dealers as it used to do until the world became too closely interested in the US Treasury Bond market), the Fed will helplessly watch interest rates rise, US government deficit costs explode, the world dive into an intensified economic recession, stock exchange collapse and the US dollar show erratic behavior, making short-term saw-tooth movements, depending on the influence of these events, before suddenly losing 30% of its value as we anticipated in the last issue (7).
(I'd have to dig in previous newsletters to figure out why they are so convinced there will be no QE3)
The footnotes:
(3) A sign of the times, the Financial Times, which has specialized in "headlines" on the demise of the Euro for more than 18 months, published an article in its inside pages (more discreet) on 05/11/2011 entitled "The Dollar faces a much greater danger than the Euro". Whilst The Age and the Wall Street Journal of 04/23/2011 believe that the US economy is now in virtually the same situation as Greece’s.
(4) The clearest example of the continuation of this "Very Great Recession" as we called it 4 years ago, is that the real estate crisis is bigger than ever. Prices are now once again falling through the "floors" reached in 2009, plunging tens of millions of Americans into a tragic economic and financial situation. Even the most optimistic don’t see the fall stopping before 2012. However, as already explained in previous GEAB issues, real estate is the plank on which the estimate of the US economy’s current value is built. The continuing collapse of real estate prices is the continuation of the economic depression. Source: MarketWatch, 05/09/2011
(5) The economic analysts Fathom have calculated that the four major global central banks (the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England) directly injected 5 trillion USD into the global economy during 2008-2010 (this does not include the recent massive, post-Japanese disaster injections, nor the whole range of guarantees that accompanied them). This represents nearly 10% of world GDP with the result that we all know: gigantic public debt, private debt that has not really decreased and economies which are hardly growing or are once again in recession. Source: Telegraph, 04/26/2011
(6) 80% of Americans believe that the economy is sick. Only 1% think that it’s going well (they must work on Wall Street). Source: CNNMoney, 05/09/2011
(7) The end of QE2 means that the US Treasury bond market has, in fact, no more buyers (because the Fed has bought the bulk of Treasury bonds issued since late 2010 (at least)); which, incidentally, makes a complete fantasy of current articles and analyses on US Treasury Bond purchases. It's the evidence of the real "illiquidity" of the Treasury bond market (whilst even its importance is dependent on its status as the most liquid market in the world) which will play the transfer role between QE2 and fall of the dollar, because this situation will lead to a sudden acceleration in participants exiting the T-Bond market, the principal asset denominated in dollars. The event will result in first, an increased need for U.S. dollars then, very quickly, an excess supply of dollars for sale. It is the timing of these two events that will determine the evolution of the US currency against other major currencies and gold during the second half of 2011.
The end of QE2, the symbol of and factor in the explosive fusion [of the trends of global geopolitical dislocation and economic/financial crisis] now underway, represents the end of an era, that where the "US Dollar was the currency of the United States and the rest of the world’s problem": from July 2011, the US Dollar will openly become the main threat weighing on the rest of the world and the United States’ crucial problem (3).
Summer 2011 will confirm that the US Federal Reserve has lost its bet: the U.S. economy has, in fact, never left the "Very Great Depression" (4) which it entered in 2008 despite the trillions of dollars injected (5), as the vast majority of Americans are perfectly aware of (6). Unable to launch a QE3 (even unofficially through its Primary Dealers as it used to do until the world became too closely interested in the US Treasury Bond market), the Fed will helplessly watch interest rates rise, US government deficit costs explode, the world dive into an intensified economic recession, stock exchange collapse and the US dollar show erratic behavior, making short-term saw-tooth movements, depending on the influence of these events, before suddenly losing 30% of its value as we anticipated in the last issue (7).
(I'd have to dig in previous newsletters to figure out why they are so convinced there will be no QE3)
The footnotes:
(3) A sign of the times, the Financial Times, which has specialized in "headlines" on the demise of the Euro for more than 18 months, published an article in its inside pages (more discreet) on 05/11/2011 entitled "The Dollar faces a much greater danger than the Euro". Whilst The Age and the Wall Street Journal of 04/23/2011 believe that the US economy is now in virtually the same situation as Greece’s.
(4) The clearest example of the continuation of this "Very Great Recession" as we called it 4 years ago, is that the real estate crisis is bigger than ever. Prices are now once again falling through the "floors" reached in 2009, plunging tens of millions of Americans into a tragic economic and financial situation. Even the most optimistic don’t see the fall stopping before 2012. However, as already explained in previous GEAB issues, real estate is the plank on which the estimate of the US economy’s current value is built. The continuing collapse of real estate prices is the continuation of the economic depression. Source: MarketWatch, 05/09/2011
(5) The economic analysts Fathom have calculated that the four major global central banks (the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England) directly injected 5 trillion USD into the global economy during 2008-2010 (this does not include the recent massive, post-Japanese disaster injections, nor the whole range of guarantees that accompanied them). This represents nearly 10% of world GDP with the result that we all know: gigantic public debt, private debt that has not really decreased and economies which are hardly growing or are once again in recession. Source: Telegraph, 04/26/2011
(6) 80% of Americans believe that the economy is sick. Only 1% think that it’s going well (they must work on Wall Street). Source: CNNMoney, 05/09/2011
(7) The end of QE2 means that the US Treasury bond market has, in fact, no more buyers (because the Fed has bought the bulk of Treasury bonds issued since late 2010 (at least)); which, incidentally, makes a complete fantasy of current articles and analyses on US Treasury Bond purchases. It's the evidence of the real "illiquidity" of the Treasury bond market (whilst even its importance is dependent on its status as the most liquid market in the world) which will play the transfer role between QE2 and fall of the dollar, because this situation will lead to a sudden acceleration in participants exiting the T-Bond market, the principal asset denominated in dollars. The event will result in first, an increased need for U.S. dollars then, very quickly, an excess supply of dollars for sale. It is the timing of these two events that will determine the evolution of the US currency against other major currencies and gold during the second half of 2011.
Last edited by Pres on Wed May 18, 2011 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Stansberry Research Video
Since when is it optimism to merely say that the collapse of the world's reserve currency probably isn't imminent?Pres wrote: I don't share MT's optimism about the USD.
That's like saying that because I don't think I am going to die this week that means I believe I am immortal.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Stansberry Research Video
LOL while you wrote this I removed my statement about your "optimism". Sorry.MediumTex wrote:Since when is it optimism to merely say that the collapse of the world's reserve currency probably isn't imminent?Pres wrote: I don't share MT's optimism about the USD.
That's like saying that because I don't think I am going to die this week that means I believe I am immortal.
Re: Stansberry Research Video
I thought it was funny.Pres wrote:LOL while you wrote this I removed my statement about your "optimism". Sorry.MediumTex wrote:Since when is it optimism to merely say that the collapse of the world's reserve currency probably isn't imminent?Pres wrote: I don't share MT's optimism about the USD.
That's like saying that because I don't think I am going to die this week that means I believe I am immortal.
That's like an ultra-low threshold of hope.
MT: "Hey dude, what are you doing tomorrow?"
Pres: "What makes you think there will even be a tomorrow?"
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Stansberry Research Video
Do you think the chances of serious inflation truly approach 0?MediumTex wrote: It won't happen.
Here's the problem that I cannot get around. We hold 50% of our national debt short-term, meaning that we're continuously "refinancing". We as a nation hold an adjustable-rate mortgage.
50% of our $14 trillion debt is $7 trillion. If interest rates climb, what happens? Interest rates climbing to 10% means that we're suddenly paying an extra $650 billion or so per year just on short-term debt. At some point, even servicing debt like that becomes impossible.
I'm not saying I know what would happen in a situation like this. I very distinctly don't know where this leads but I doubt that it is a happy place. That's what concerns me.
So what happens if government borrowing costs rise? What makes a very bad outcome impossible?
Re: Stansberry Research Video
Lone Wolf,
"It won't happen" refers to my opinion about whether the collapse of the dollar is imminent.
I'm not saying that the dollar isn't, even now, in the process of being "decommissioned" as a reserve currency, just as the British pound was several decades back.
The question is whether it is going to be a 20 year process or a 20 month process.
"It won't happen" refers to my opinion about whether the collapse of the dollar is imminent.
I'm not saying that the dollar isn't, even now, in the process of being "decommissioned" as a reserve currency, just as the British pound was several decades back.
The question is whether it is going to be a 20 year process or a 20 month process.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Stansberry Research Video
The nice thing about dollar collapse predictions:
1) If they're imminent, they are quickly proven wrong and hopefully shut-up.
2) If they're "well, within the next 40 years," then you need to know what to invest in during the meantime to preserve/grow your wealth and the PP does a good job oft that.
One question I think that needs to be worked out between inflationists and deflationists is how much the fed can truly control interest rates... because one would think (and history has proven) that short-term rates tend to keep pretty close tabs on inflation. Should we believe they're doing a miserable job of that now or will in the future?
If the fed can truly control rates, in sharp inconsistency to the realities of inflation (ST rates significantly lagging inflation), then where's the fiscal problem where the US has trouble borrowing? How long can the fed keep this insane game up? If the short-term rates have kept up with inflation in the past, then what is the fed doing now or in the future to manipulate things so much more significantly than in the past? If the fed actually has this capability... to allow the U.S. government to not only inflate away its old debt, but pay new debt at rates that significantly lag inflation... we're talking about one hell of an ace up our sleeve as a nation. This hardly fits right in line with the "bond vigilante" fears or debt service fears.
If the fed can't control rates to that significant of a degree (aka, lag inflation significantly) then that implies the bond market is at least relatively efficient at taking inflation into consideration and pricing interest accordingly. If this is the case, then that means people, in good, market choice-making form, are buying <1 yr bonds at <.5% rates because they actually think they'll be better off for it, not because the fed is manipulating things on some grand scale (well not grand enough to make people lose money to inflation to a significant degree with their st cash). This may actually have the implications that people, governments, and institutions WANT to loan the U.S. government money in times of economic turmoil, so much so, that they're willing to actually lose a penny to inflation to have a guaranteed preservation of 99.xx% of their wealth. This has implications that would bother the average person who is screaming for fiscal austerity (often same as the inflationist crowd), because they often argue that the U.S. can't afford to go into further debt during recessions... but if these rates represent what people are willing to be paid to loan the gov't money, and not some fed-induced abhorration of the market, then it stands to reason that maybe we have a little less to worry about during recessions, when people REALLY want to loan the U.S. gov't money (even if those implications are to cut income and payroll taxes drastically, since the U.S. gov't is in such a solid interest-rate position).
I know half of these seem like rhetorical questions, but I think we need to figure out the narrative on these things... because I don't think there's much consistency on this by either side. The implications of actually being able to significantly control interest rates are pretty huge, and should be carried to their logical conclusions.
LW,
Regarding your description of the U.S on an adjustable rate mortgage, I'd assume then that you see the interest rates as being an eventual threat, and therefore not exhorbitantly controllable by the fed. Is this an accurate description of how you think about interest rates? If this is the case, should the government maybe drastically lower taxes or pay out stimulus, at least while we're able to loan at those rates, and then pay it back later when rates rise? Additionally, should the government maybe borrow more on the long end of the curve, and therefore protect itself more from inflation?
What about 1981? Did rates go up because of inflation or because Paul Volcker induced it? If because of Volcker, then that would imply that the fed CAN control rates... or at least within a certain set of given perameters. What are those perameters do you think? Are the parameters such where the fed could, if it wanted to, keep rates as low as they are now if we have sustained inflation at 3, 4, 5, xx%??
I'm not asking rhetorically, but because I value your analysis and know you tend to disagree with me on some things... MT, same questions apply to you.
1) If they're imminent, they are quickly proven wrong and hopefully shut-up.
2) If they're "well, within the next 40 years," then you need to know what to invest in during the meantime to preserve/grow your wealth and the PP does a good job oft that.
One question I think that needs to be worked out between inflationists and deflationists is how much the fed can truly control interest rates... because one would think (and history has proven) that short-term rates tend to keep pretty close tabs on inflation. Should we believe they're doing a miserable job of that now or will in the future?
If the fed can truly control rates, in sharp inconsistency to the realities of inflation (ST rates significantly lagging inflation), then where's the fiscal problem where the US has trouble borrowing? How long can the fed keep this insane game up? If the short-term rates have kept up with inflation in the past, then what is the fed doing now or in the future to manipulate things so much more significantly than in the past? If the fed actually has this capability... to allow the U.S. government to not only inflate away its old debt, but pay new debt at rates that significantly lag inflation... we're talking about one hell of an ace up our sleeve as a nation. This hardly fits right in line with the "bond vigilante" fears or debt service fears.
If the fed can't control rates to that significant of a degree (aka, lag inflation significantly) then that implies the bond market is at least relatively efficient at taking inflation into consideration and pricing interest accordingly. If this is the case, then that means people, in good, market choice-making form, are buying <1 yr bonds at <.5% rates because they actually think they'll be better off for it, not because the fed is manipulating things on some grand scale (well not grand enough to make people lose money to inflation to a significant degree with their st cash). This may actually have the implications that people, governments, and institutions WANT to loan the U.S. government money in times of economic turmoil, so much so, that they're willing to actually lose a penny to inflation to have a guaranteed preservation of 99.xx% of their wealth. This has implications that would bother the average person who is screaming for fiscal austerity (often same as the inflationist crowd), because they often argue that the U.S. can't afford to go into further debt during recessions... but if these rates represent what people are willing to be paid to loan the gov't money, and not some fed-induced abhorration of the market, then it stands to reason that maybe we have a little less to worry about during recessions, when people REALLY want to loan the U.S. gov't money (even if those implications are to cut income and payroll taxes drastically, since the U.S. gov't is in such a solid interest-rate position).
I know half of these seem like rhetorical questions, but I think we need to figure out the narrative on these things... because I don't think there's much consistency on this by either side. The implications of actually being able to significantly control interest rates are pretty huge, and should be carried to their logical conclusions.
LW,
Regarding your description of the U.S on an adjustable rate mortgage, I'd assume then that you see the interest rates as being an eventual threat, and therefore not exhorbitantly controllable by the fed. Is this an accurate description of how you think about interest rates? If this is the case, should the government maybe drastically lower taxes or pay out stimulus, at least while we're able to loan at those rates, and then pay it back later when rates rise? Additionally, should the government maybe borrow more on the long end of the curve, and therefore protect itself more from inflation?
What about 1981? Did rates go up because of inflation or because Paul Volcker induced it? If because of Volcker, then that would imply that the fed CAN control rates... or at least within a certain set of given perameters. What are those perameters do you think? Are the parameters such where the fed could, if it wanted to, keep rates as low as they are now if we have sustained inflation at 3, 4, 5, xx%??
I'm not asking rhetorically, but because I value your analysis and know you tend to disagree with me on some things... MT, same questions apply to you.
Last edited by moda0306 on Wed May 18, 2011 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: Stansberry Research Video
To build upon my previous thoughts, I guess the inconsistency of the following statement bothers me:
1) The fed lowering rates induces inflation
2) Inflation forces bond rates to go up
So given these two general rules, how much can the fed truly control rates.
I'm thinking the final answer is that they can "influence" rates, but will never be able to significanly lag inflation.
1) The fed lowering rates induces inflation
2) Inflation forces bond rates to go up
So given these two general rules, how much can the fed truly control rates.
I'm thinking the final answer is that they can "influence" rates, but will never be able to significanly lag inflation.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: Stansberry Research Video
And even if we are, at scariest, on an "adjustable rate mortgage," we're on said mortgage with a "conterfeit printing press in the basement," (which we've all discussed/debated the implications of). But it's at least worth noting.
Once you get past the idea that the fed CAN'T lag inflation too much with ST rates, which I'd tend to agree with, then you're left with, "what if ST rates rise quickly due to inflation, and you use a printing press to try to monetize that debt before/as it refinances?" Will we be chasing our tail? As we monetize the first 20% of our ST debt, will the next 80% of ST debt become much more expensive?
Another question I ask myself is "where would rates be if the fed had not rescued financial institutions, lowered rates, or expanded the money supply." Given the default risk and deflation that would be rampant in the economy, I'd imagine that rates would have ended up much lower after 2008 had the fed not rescued anything or expanded the money supply. Am I mistaken in this observation? Seems to me that deflation + failing businesses & municipalities = EXTREMELY easy borrowing for the U.S. treasury at insanely low rates.
Once you get past the idea that the fed CAN'T lag inflation too much with ST rates, which I'd tend to agree with, then you're left with, "what if ST rates rise quickly due to inflation, and you use a printing press to try to monetize that debt before/as it refinances?" Will we be chasing our tail? As we monetize the first 20% of our ST debt, will the next 80% of ST debt become much more expensive?
Another question I ask myself is "where would rates be if the fed had not rescued financial institutions, lowered rates, or expanded the money supply." Given the default risk and deflation that would be rampant in the economy, I'd imagine that rates would have ended up much lower after 2008 had the fed not rescued anything or expanded the money supply. Am I mistaken in this observation? Seems to me that deflation + failing businesses & municipalities = EXTREMELY easy borrowing for the U.S. treasury at insanely low rates.
Last edited by moda0306 on Wed May 18, 2011 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: Stansberry Research Video
I figured there was something fishy about him when I saw he was from Baltimore.
It's no accident that all Jon Waters films are set in Baltimore.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
-
LifestyleFreedom
- Senior Member
- Posts: 126
- Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2010 8:28 pm
Re: Stansberry Research Video
I didn't listen much to the link that began this thread because it started out very similar to a link I listened to awhile ago.
In that earlier link, the final part of the video directed people to send him their soon-to-be-worthless fiat currency so they could hook up with him and his network of billionaire friends, who would then help everyone survive the coming doom.
Maybe this guy is right and we will have Armageddon soon. Or maybe he is running a scam that is intended to separate people from their hard-earned money.
In that earlier link, the final part of the video directed people to send him their soon-to-be-worthless fiat currency so they could hook up with him and his network of billionaire friends, who would then help everyone survive the coming doom.
Maybe this guy is right and we will have Armageddon soon. Or maybe he is running a scam that is intended to separate people from their hard-earned money.
Financial Freedom --> Time Freedom --> Lifestyle Freedom
Re: Stansberry Research Video
Funny... one would think surviving a known imminent collapse of the dollar would be pretty easy: Buy a home w/ a mortgage, buy gold, store up on food and supplies.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: Stansberry Research Video
As was the TV series, "Homicide: Life on the Streets."MediumTex wrote:I figured there was something fishy about him when I saw he was from Baltimore.
It's no accident that all Jon Waters films are set in Baltimore.
Last edited by smurff on Thu May 19, 2011 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.