The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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vnatale
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Dec 30, 2022 8:06 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Dec 30, 2022 7:07 am

vnatale wrote:
Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:06 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Dec 29, 2022 6:47 pm

Very interesting.
I trust the new coins I’ve bought from Apmex but I should probably have my random years and local purchases tested.

What is your recourse if any tests reveal anything?


Tears


That is what I assumed. No recourse for an unfortunate discovery.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 30, 2022 12:23 pm

I mean if it was something I'd bought recently, I'd alert the vendor. But, nowadays if I buy at all I buy new and I buy from Apmex.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by welderwannabe » Fri Dec 30, 2022 1:43 pm

seajay wrote:
Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:22 pm
Testers such as Sigma Metalytics Precious Metal Verifier PMV PRO are pricey, around $2K, but for regular buyers provide a quick and easy test

Image

Less expensive ($1K) alternatives are around, but may not penetrate right through and could miss a tungsten core.
Seajay, Sigma Metalytics has their PMV original model which is < $1K. Is it not as effective as the "PRO" modem for $2K?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:25 pm

welderwannabe wrote:
Fri Dec 30, 2022 1:43 pm
seajay wrote:
Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:22 pm
Testers such as Sigma Metalytics Precious Metal Verifier PMV PRO are pricey, around $2K, but for regular buyers provide a quick and easy test

Image

Less expensive ($1K) alternatives are around, but may not penetrate right through and could miss a tungsten core.
Seajay, Sigma Metalytics has their PMV original model which is < $1K. Is it not as effective as the "PRO" modem for $2K?
Thanks. There's three Sigma versions that I know of, that original model that you mention, that has just a single sensor, so can't test as deeply as the PRO version that has two sensors. There's another mini version that is much the same as the PRO, but uses wifi and your phone/tablet for the control, rather than having the control integral as in the PRO. Ballpark $1K, $1.5K, $2K respective pricing, but as you say can be less than that. You can also get additions such as a separate larger base/test units and 'wands', that you pretty much have to buy at the time of buying the main unit IIRC, for whatever reasons are not available as add-later options.

If you're just into one ounce coins alone then the base units are OK as-is, the wands and other kit is more for bars or smaller sized bars/coins. I believe that the units cannot test gold jewellery.

https://www.sigmametalytics.com/

I've personally only heard of one instance when the Original missed a fake that the PRO picked up, but I don't get around that circle much. I deal with just two trusted outfits, one just a short 30 minute hop away from whom I buy from (Tavex) in person (and use their test kit), the other (Chards) a 500 mile round trip that I tend to sell to (via courier). Typically buy at around spot+4%, sell at spot+0.5%. Both in the UK (London and Blackpool respectively). Accordingly I've not had the need to buy any testers.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by welderwannabe » Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:00 pm

seajay wrote:
Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:25 pm
I've personally only heard of one instance when the Original missed a fake that the PRO picked up, but I don't get around that circle much. I deal with just two trusted outfits, one just a short 30 minute hop away from whom I buy from (Tavex) in person (and use their test kit), the other (Chards) a 500 mile round trip that I tend to sell to (via courier). Typically buy at around spot+4%, sell at spot+0.5%. Both in the UK (London and Blackpool respectively). Accordingly I've not had the need to buy any testers.
Thanks. Considering a single gold eagle is going for the price of the pro, seems like it may be cheap insurance.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:30 pm

welderwannabe wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:00 pm
Thanks. Considering a single gold eagle is going for the price of the pro, seems like it may be cheap insurance.
Or, you could only do business with trustworthy people.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 12, 2023 12:29 pm

US$1900/oz
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:52 pm

That explosive gold discussion on the Knuckleheads forum finally got shut down.
My only regret... is that I have... Boneitis.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Fri Jan 13, 2023 2:40 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:52 pm
That explosive gold discussion on the Knuckleheads forum finally got shut down.
Looks like it was only temporarily locked to clear out some posts.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:12 am

seajay wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 2:40 am
Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:52 pm
That explosive gold discussion on the Knuckleheads forum finally got shut down.
Looks like it was only temporarily locked to clear out some posts.
Would you share the link? Thanks!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:27 am

My only regret... is that I have... Boneitis.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Jan 13, 2023 6:16 pm

Image
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:45 pm

The action in that thread seems to have quieted down quite a bit.

Too bad. I was having fun munching on popcorn and watching. ;D
My only regret... is that I have... Boneitis.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:52 am

To borrow the phrasing of dualstow: let 2023 be the year of GOLD.
My only regret... is that I have... Boneitis.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 16, 2023 1:19 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:52 am
To borrow the phrasing of dualstow: let 2023 be the year of GOLD.
I was a bit early, wasn't I O0
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by welderwannabe » Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:14 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:30 pm
Or, you could only do business with trustworthy people.
Trustworthy people are trustworthy until they are not.

Ive got a Sigma on order.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:11 pm

If gold keeps going up, I’m going to retire and spend my leisure time reading other forums on why gold is a barbarous relic and a poor choice for a portfolio.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:24 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:11 pm
If gold keeps going up, I’m going to retire and spend my leisure time reading other forums on why gold is a barbarous relic and a poor choice for a portfolio.
::)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:43 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:11 pm
If gold keeps going up, I’m going to retire and spend my leisure time reading other forums on why gold is a barbarous relic and a poor choice for a portfolio.
Does that forum happen to be frequented by Knuckleheads? ;D
My only regret... is that I have... Boneitis.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:35 pm

Well…every forum has a rainbow of intellectual colors. 😬 O0
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:44 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:35 pm
Well…every forum has a rainbow of intellectual colors. 😬 O0
And some of those colours are brighter than others! >:D
My only regret... is that I have... Boneitis.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 26, 2023 9:48 am

Gold is starting the year with gains.

Gold purchases by everyone from central banks to institutions and ordinary investors have lifted the precious metal in 12 of the past 16 sessions, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
WSJ, Jan 26
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:15 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:11 pm
If gold keeps going up, I’m going to retire and spend my leisure time reading other forums on why gold is a barbarous relic and a poor choice for a portfolio.
For centuries gold/silver was money. Investors lent money (gold) to the state in return for interest (more gold in return).

Whilst direct convertibility ended in 1933, the US internationally agreed for trade to occur in US dollars, and where the US would peg the US dollar to gold. That held until the late 1960's when Nixon decoupled as a means to help pay down the cost of the Vietnam war. Since then the US has still sought to align the US dollar with gold, Yellen for instance since 2013. To not do so risks loss of faith/trust as the US dollar being the trade currency replacement to gold. Aware of the risks of fiat currency, the US maintains large amounts of gold as the major part of its reserves. Gold was money for centuries, and is still a major factor for many currencies around the world. Those that consider gold to be a relic are those that have total trust in pure fiat currencies - that left alone tend to fail relatively quickly.

Investors pre 1932 might not have been inclined to hold gold (coins/money) but instead have lent that money to the state for more gold in return and safe storage (state paid investors for it to securely store their gold). In the mid 1980's the US changed taxation policy to more heavily tax dividends, so the inclination was for firms to retain more of earnings.

Adjust for circumstantial changes and ...

Image

That chart is pretty similar if instead of rotating into gold from 1932 you instead continued to lend (hold treasuries) up to 1968.

Fundamentally shares (price only), gold, treasuries, house prices ...etc. will tend to broadly pace inflation over time, as otherwise the prices would either rise to excessively expensive, or excessively cheap. Holding gold is similar to holding bonds, you forego the dividends that stocks provide. As a alternative to bonds however that tend to correlate more with stocks, gold tends to have a element of inverse correlation to both stocks and bonds, is the better diversifier.

The recent indications are for stock and gold price alignment, neither seems excessively expensive or cheap. In contrast to the late 1960's and again in late 1990's when stocks were relatively expensive/gold cheap. Late 1970's and stocks were cheap/gold expensive.

I see 2023 as a year with 50/50 probability of either stocks or gold being up/down. Such that starting the year with equal amounts of both is as good-as-any a choice. One thing for sure is that one will do better than the other. But equally 67/33 stock/gold is a reasonable choice as historically since 1793 stocks were the years best performer in around two-thirds of years, gold was similar to bonds - the years best asset in around a third of years.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:51 pm

(seajay)I see 2023 as a year with 50/50 probability of either stocks or gold being up/down. Such that starting the year with equal amounts of both is as good-as-any a choice
I’ve never been able to hold enough gold. For the pp, yes, but not for pp+vp.
Your post is heartening.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:43 am

Gold plummeting today. Back to the (18)80's
https://youtu.be/0QKQlf8r7ls
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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