Another solid January

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Pet Hog
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Another solid January

Post by Pet Hog » Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:47 pm

I've been fully invested in the PP since May 2013 and I keep a monthly spreadsheet of my performance. I noticed that each of the last six Januaries has had excellent (relative to PP standards) performance (up at least 1.2%), including this one just ended. So I wondered whether it is a feature of the PP in general. Here are some numbers (adjusted closes from Yahoo Finance) of the nominal January returns of an all-ETF PP (actual gold spot prices for the first entry). For these 16 years, there have been just four negative Januaries, with the average return of the PP in January being 1.08%, and with gold (+3.34% on average) being the most significant contributor -- stocks the least. Enough data to speculate on a cunning PP strategy? Regardless, I'm delighted with 2019 so far!

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		VTI	TLT	GLD	SHY	PP
		
Dec 31, 2003	39.86	50.24	417.25	63.57		
Jan 31, 2004	40.90	51.18	399.75	63.64		
		2.61%	1.87%	(4.19%)	0.11%	0.10%	
						
Dec 31, 2004	44.96	54.62	43.80	63.99		
Jan 31, 2005	43.83	56.57	42.22	63.97		
		(2.51%)	3.57%	(3.61%)	(0.03%)	(0.65%)	
						
Dec 31, 2005	47.79	59.31	51.58	64.97		
Jan 31, 2006	49.33	58.52	56.70	65.08		
		3.22%	(1.33%)	9.93%	0.17%	3.00%	
						
Dec 31, 2006	55.29	59.73	63.21	67.50		
Jan 31, 2007	56.32	59.14	64.83	67.61		
		1.86%	(0.99%)	2.56%	0.16%	0.90%	
						
Dec 31, 2007	58.26	65.89	82.46	72.46		
Jan 31, 2008	54.67	67.27	91.40	73.66		
		(6.16%)	2.09%	10.84%	1.66%	2.11%	
						
Dec 31, 2008	36.71	88.26	86.52	77.26		
Jan 31, 2009	33.76	76.72	91.31	76.92		
		(8.04%)	(13.08%)	5.54%	(0.44%)	(4.00%)	
						
Dec 31, 2009	47.32	69.01	107.31	77.53		
Jan 31, 2010	45.64	70.87	105.96	78.15		
		(3.55%)	2.70%	(1.26%)	0.80%	(0.33%)	
						
Dec 31, 2010	55.57	75.23	138.72	79.30		
Jan 31, 2011	56.71	72.91	129.87	79.40		
		2.05%	(3.08%)	(6.38%)	0.13%	(1.82%)	
						
Dec 31, 2011	56.11	100.81	151.99	80.44		
Jan 31, 2012	58.95	100.48	169.31	80.51		
		5.06%	(0.33%)	11.40%	0.09%	4.05%	
						
Dec 31, 2012	65.34	103.24	162.02	80.64		
Jan 31, 2013	68.88	99.95	161.20	80.65		
		5.42%	(3.19%)	(0.51%)	0.01%	0.43%	
						
Dec 31, 2013	87.20	89.43	116.12	80.82		
Jan 31, 2014	84.43	95.06	120.09	80.98		
		(3.18%)	6.30%	3.42%	0.20%	1.68%	
						
Dec 31, 2014	98.14	113.84	113.58	81.18		
Jan 31, 2015	95.45	125.02	123.45	81.69		
		(2.74%)	9.82%	8.69%	0.63%	4.10%	
						
Dec 31, 2015	98.49	111.80	101.46	81.53		
Jan 31, 2016	92.85	118.03	106.95	82.06		
		(5.73%)	5.57%	5.41%	0.65%	1.48%	
						
Dec 31, 2016	111.11	113.11	109.61	82.20		
Jan 31, 2017	113.17	114.03	115.55	82.29		
		1.85%	0.81%	5.42%	0.11%	2.05%	
						
Dec 31, 2017	134.68	123.50	123.65	82.41		
Jan 31, 2018	141.73	119.48	127.65	82.18		
		5.23%	(3.26%)	3.23%	(0.28%)	1.23%	
						
Dec 31, 2018	127.63	121.51	121.25	83.62		
Jan 31, 2019	138.53	121.97	124.75	83.83		
		8.54%	0.38%	2.89%	0.25%	3.01%	
						
AVERAGE		0.25%	0.49%	3.34%	0.26%	1.08%	
Pet Hog
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Re: Another solid January

Post by Pet Hog » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:29 pm

If January is a good month, what about the others? I've gone through the data month by month and here are the results for the past 15 years (some months have only 14 years of data). I've used only the EFT closing prices for VTI, TLT, GLD, and SHY, but not the spot price for gold, so there's one less month here averaged for January than the number I posted yesterday.

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Month		Average return	Rolling 3 month	Rolling 6 month	Rolling 9 month

January		1.15%		0.64%		0.47%		0.56%
February	0.56%		0.56%		0.42%		0.41%
March		0.21%		0.39%		0.50%		0.46%
April		0.92%		0.29%		0.52%		0.49%
May		0.04%		0.27%		0.34%		0.51%
June		(0.07%)		0.61%		0.49%		0.57%
July		0.86%		0.74%		0.58%		0.60%
August		1.04%		0.40%		0.63%		0.61%
September	0.34%		0.38%		0.55%		0.50%
October		(0.18%)		0.42%		0.53%		0.45%
November	0.98%		0.86%		0.71%		0.57%
December	0.46%		0.72%		0.56%		0.57%
				
Average month	0.52%			
Annualized 	6.47%			
As was my hunch, January has been the best PP month (these are nominal returns, not real). Also notable are April (0.92%), July (0.86%), August (1.04%), and November (0.98%). The poorest months have been May (0.04%), June (-0.07%), and October (-0.18%).

The other three columns provide the average rolling returns (not compounded, just averaged) beginning with the listed month; for example, the average rolling 3-month return starting in January (that is, December 31 to March 31) was 0.64%. The best 3-month period for the PP since 2004/2005 was November to January; best 6 months, November to April; best 9 months, August to April.

Using these numbers to make some predictions, the next three months should give a slightly above average PP return (0.56%/mo), but the next six (0.42%/mo) and nine (0.41%/mo) should be below average. One good PP strategy would have been to avoid May and June entirely (go 100% cash). But I'm not providing financial advice!
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dualstow
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Re: Another solid January

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:33 pm

👍
Wishing you a good Good Friday
Vanguard auction is open for 2-year notes, 1-year bills -
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Cortopassi
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Re: Another solid January

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:09 am

Up 4.37% currently.

A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!
jacksonM
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Re: Another solid January

Post by jacksonM » Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:00 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:09 am
Up 4.37% currently.

A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!
Don't know what I'm up YTD but I'm at exactly the same place I was last January when I re-balanced so I can revise my ROI using the GB last year from a 2.9% loss to a 0% gain.
Pet Hog
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Re: Another solid January

Post by Pet Hog » Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:19 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:09 am
A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!
I'm with you! That's what I was sort of hinting at with my post. After last year's loss, I'd be happy with 4% ytd and adding on 2.5% extra with an 11-month treasury. But with regression toward the mean I hope the PP has a better year than that. Years than that. Anyway, I'm done with market-timing, but it's fun to dream.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Another solid January

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:44 pm

Pet Hog wrote:
Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:19 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:09 am
A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!
I'm with you! That's what I was sort of hinting at with my post. After last year's loss, I'd be happy with 4% ytd and adding on 2.5% extra with an 11-month treasury. But with regression toward the mean I hope the PP has a better year than that. Years than that. Anyway, I'm done with market-timing, but it's fun to dream.
A little extreme to sell to cash ;D
Personally, I feel the same way as both of you.
Well within tolerance bands, so really no action to take.
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I Shrugged
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Re: Another solid January

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:34 pm

I sold a bunch of GLD in December, to take gains which will offset a loss on a sale of something else. Of course, I didn't go buy gold at Texas Bullion Depository or some other place as I had intended, because gold has been going nowhere, so why rush? Of course....
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dualstow
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Re: Another solid January

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:10 pm

You sold gold at a gain? I feel like a very thirsty guy in the desert looking up at someone drinking a jug of Poland Spring.
Wishing you a good Good Friday
Vanguard auction is open for 2-year notes, 1-year bills -
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I Shrugged
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Re: Another solid January

Post by I Shrugged » Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:30 pm

I bought it in late 2008 or early 2009. Since then I've felt stuck in GLD because of the tax hit for taking a gain. But I happened to have a loss on something in 2018, so I was able to get some of it out.
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