Another way of looking at it is that rebalance bands should be tightened when LTT yields get lower.  Or that LTTs should make up a greater percentage of the PP to magnify the effect of their lower volatility.  Does that make sense? Great post, Pet Hog, but you lost me at the very end. When yields a...

As LTT rates approach zero, there is less and less upside potential.  Without using fancy bond price equations, I look at it this way: Right now US 30-year treasury bonds have a yield of 2.83%.  $1000 compounded over 30 years at this rate would equal $2310 eventually.  If yields went down to zero, s...

frugal wrote: Hello fellows,

every year we had Mr.Craig Rowland's analyzes and now we don't have it anymore.

I am sad 

Craig Rowland come back, please.

Regards.

Frugal:  In case you missed it, Kriegsspiel and I posted our calculations of the PP's returns in 2015 here.

Why would you want to do that? Because they are the most volatile. Also, as Mark stated above, "your yield is delivered as LT capital gains instead of interest." Consider two 30-year treasury bonds currently available at Fidelity: (A) Maturity 2/15/2045; coupon 2.50%; ask price: $903.91/b...

... and buy new 30 year bonds with the lowest interest rate. Why would you want to do that? Because they are the most volatile. Also, as Mark stated above, "your yield is delivered as LT capital gains instead of interest." Consider two 30-year treasury bonds currently available at Fidelit...

For the year, I got: VTI -0.11% TLT -2.03% IAU -9.71% SHY +0.38% -2.88% (-2.63% real) I calculate slightly different numbers from the adjusted closes on Dec 31 2014 and the CPI-U from Nov 2014 to Nov 2015 (the latest year-over-year numbers available). VTI (from 103.93 to 104.30): +0.36% TLT (from 1...

The first sentence of the link the OP provided reads: "Finland’s government is drawing up plans to pay every citizen a basic income of euros 800 ($1,165) each month, scrapping benefits altogether." Am I the only one bothered by the bad math? Not every dollar is a US dollar, Grasshopper.

I'm no expert either, but a couple of things. HB published that book in 1989, I believe, when yields on 30-year treasuries were >8%, so there was definitely room to double if rates decreased.  Today, it's a different story, as you have stated. Your calculated maximum bond price increases of 64% (yie...

I like a mathematical challenge.  First up, S&P500: From Dec 31, 2014 (2058.90) to today (2012.37) = -2.260% Next, PP components (a four-ETF version; adjusted closes, so dividends reinvested): VTI: from 104.52 to 103.24 = -1.225% TLT: from 123.03 to 123.76 = +0.593% GLD: from 113.58 to 103.11 =...

Dec 1, 2014 :: 2,058 Dec 1, 2015 :: 2,052 S&P today :: 2,012 Not sure how to calculate precisely how the pp is doing, but is it time to revive this thread? I like a mathematical challenge.  First up, S&P500: From Dec 31, 2014 (2058.90) to today (2012.37) = -2.260% Next, PP components (a fou...

The yield actually got as low as 2.25% on 1/30/ 16 . Please, Barrett, remember Harry's Rule #4 when posting on this forum! Wow…. Please forgive a newbie’s comment. I just read Craig’s PP book and WAS excited about moving money toward a strategy that was touted as safe, simple to implement, and easy...

ashantiwarrior, are these the two funds? https://www.fidelity.co.uk/fund-supermarket/Fidelity-Index-World-Fund-P-Inc-GB00BP8RYB62 https://www.fidelity.co.uk/fund-supermarket/Fidelity-Index-World-Fund-P-Acc-GB00BJS8SJ34 All things being equal, and if there is no difference between the two funds apart...

Actually I just thought of a third option. So it's: 1) Continue purchasing 2037-maturity bonds until it's time to roll over the entire lot, 2) Purchase bonds with the longest maturity no matter what (in this case 2039-maturity bonds), or 3) Roll over your entire 2037-maturity holding into the bonds...

I am retiring in two years. I have the classic 25% PP. If I retired two years ago and drew out 4%, I am guessing I would down close to 8% since PP earned next to nothing in this time period. Assuming this is the case, what would I have to drop down to the the third year to avoid depleting my portfo...

Not only that, for the moment it's beating a 100% total stock market index portfolio and a conservative 55% bond Boglehead portfolio. All assets but stocks are once again positive YTD. Could turn around tomorrow, but it's at least a good reminder of how tough a year this has been for investments. U...

My gut feeling is that if you don't earn any money in Ireland then you would have to file only in the US.  When you say "Irish residency," do you mean you will be gaining residency in Ireland (like a US green card), or will you be there on a visa?  That might affect your tax status. (Perha...

Bedraggled, it might not be a fun read, but some of your questions are probably answered in IRS publication 54, Tax Guide for U.S. Citizens and Resident Aliens Abroad .  There is a tax treaty between the US and Ireland , so you should have no concerns about double-taxation.  I think that, as a US ci...

LOL, you'll find a lot of conspiracy Bullshit that alternative practitioners believe in just because its fashionably anti-corporate or anti-government and they get an emotional charge out of it.  While it can be true in many cases, it's not carte blanche.  No one just sits by and lets their economi...

I just watched the second episode.  The message is that a strong immune system is the best defense against cancer.  I can dig it.  Unfortunately, the documentary suggests it can best be achieved will healthy doses of snake oil, conspiracy theories, and anecdotal evidence, with a small drop of religi...

I would reinvest any dividends, coupons, or interest into the asset from which it came.  Mainly because that approach provides a slightly higher CAGR (see for yourself at peaktotrough.com).  The alternatives are letting it remain as cash or investing it in the asset of lowest value at the time.  I c...

Although I think hes conflating CO2 with the alleged causes of global warming.  Pollution causes global cooling, not warming.  CO2 is a pollutant, yes? Well, there are pollutants and there are pollutants.  Atmospheric dust from a volcanic eruption, a forest fire, a nuclear explosion, or an asteroid...

I'll only comment on one item.  Did you know that MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) was originally named NMR (Nuclear Magnetic Resonance)?  The name was changed to appease the "fear of everything nuclear" crowd and thus sell it to the ignorant masses.  Goes along with your other comment ab...

How about adopting a hybrid plan?  Like, combining "35/15" with "every two/three years," and then rebalancing whichever comes first.  That way you would keep the bands wide (handy for taking advantage of rapid and wide market swings), but never leaving the portfolio alone for too...

Reviving an old thread here, this may well be the worst article on grilling I've ever read: http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2015/07/grilling_feminism_and_masculinity_a_grand_unified_theory.html?wpsrc This guy needs some time away from his liberal friends. But I’m uncomfortable with t...

You know, the "can't afford to lose" part means "won't disappear" and not "will never ever ever decline in value." If there was a portfolio that had real gains with no nominal losses ever, everyone would be using it! About 50% of people -- especially Millennials -- do....