Search found 260 matches
- Thu May 11, 2017 7:44 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Stocks, bonds, and gold have all returned 6.3% annualized over the last 10 years!
- Replies: 16
- Views: 12156
Stocks, bonds, and gold have all returned 6.3% annualized over the last 10 years!
Playing around on peaktotrough.com I discovered something interesting: the 10-year returns for stocks, LTTs, and gold are almost equal, at about 6.3% apiece (CAGR). That's starting on May 11, 2007, with dividends reinvested. Pretty amazing given the huge crash in stocks in 2008 and the huge rise and...
- Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:53 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Rebalancing Hypothesis
- Replies: 9
- Views: 7820
Re: Rebalancing Hypothesis
Jack, I don't understand what you mean by only rebalancing assets that are beyond their bands. In your stocks 35%/bonds 20% example, would you sell stocks down to 25% and leave the rest as cash? What if the original allocation was 35% stocks, 25% cash, 20% bonds, and 20% gold? You'd rebalance to 25/...
- Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:45 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alternative PP Models
- Replies: 26
- Views: 32416
Re: Alternative PP Models
...I downloaded Yahoo Finance adjusted closing price data from January, 1, 2006 to December 31, 2016... I've noticed that the Yahoo "adjusted close prices" have, incorrectly, been equal to the "close prices" for quite a while. Perhaps it's just my browser. You might want to chec...
- Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:51 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: I think I'll rebalance today
- Replies: 35
- Views: 29637
Re: I think I'll rebalance today
Managing around the edges has little to no effect on returns but it certainly can benefit psychologically. 1M portfolio, 30% stocks (300K). Sell 5% (15K) to cash and restore asset allocation. A 20% decline on the 5% (3K). Your timely move only resulted in a savings of 3K or .3% of your portfolio. Y...
- Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:31 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 199507
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
As I establish my first portfolio in October, I ask the following: 1) What would the capital gain be on the 10 Year Treasury if we experience zero interest rates? 2) The capital gain on the 30 Year Treasury? Kevin, if you bought new Treasury bonds for $1,000 each on October 1, 2015, these are the y...
- Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:23 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Desire to "Cash In or Cash Out!"
- Replies: 19
- Views: 8690
Re: Desire to "Cash In or Cash Out!"
If stocks, bonds, and gold are all up, perhaps cash is at less than 25%. You might want to consider selling whatever has gone up the most to rebalance cash to 25%. That way you are not rebalancing completely, but just skimming a little off the top. Profit taking.
- Sat Apr 30, 2016 2:11 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Little Marco For VP?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 8777
Re: Little Marco For VP?
That would be interesting:barrett wrote: ... if the intent is to carry the swing comedian crowd, Louis CK is probably a good pick.
Louis C.K.: 'Insane bigot' Donald Trump 'is Hitler'
- Thu Apr 21, 2016 3:32 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
- Replies: 36
- Views: 20127
Re: The challenge of an EU Permanent PP at current bond yields
So, less than two months ago, the Japanese long bond was about where the German Bund is now. The yield has plunged to .292 in less than 60 days. Can one of you bondy, mathy types run some numbers on what kind of bond returns a Japanese investor would have gotten so far this year? If you don't want ...
- Sat Mar 19, 2016 4:00 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New all-time high
- Replies: 30
- Views: 21304
New all-time high
Uncork the champagne! According to peaktotrough.com, the PP started on January 1 1972 with 35/15 bands and reinvested dividends reached its all-time high (nominally) yesterday, surmounting the previous peak established on February 2 last year. Hopefully, your portfolio is at its all-time high, too...
- Tue Mar 01, 2016 5:51 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are gold and bonds very uncorrelated?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4650
Re: Are gold and bonds very uncorrelated?
TennPaGa, can you provide some further explanation about what your graph shows? Five-year returns? Daily data? What does the current value of 12.5 represent?
- Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:38 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
- Replies: 16
- Views: 8460
Re: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
Thanks for the correction. I think I should also point out that the taxable gain in a taxable account is only the proportion of a sale that is actually gain, not the whole sale. In other words (assuming I'm doing the calculation right this time), if your gold goes up from $25 to $41 and you sell $1...
- Tue Mar 01, 2016 3:28 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
- Replies: 16
- Views: 8460
Re: Taking Gold out of Roth IRA at Age 60
Say you start with $25 in each of four investments, and one of them grows to $35; assuming the others don't change, then you will have a total of $110. Not quite: $35 out of $110 is only 32%. Gold would have to increase to about $41 to become 35% of $116 (41 + 3*25). Rebalancing would reset each ...
- Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:18 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bravo PP, Bravo! EOM
- Replies: 22
- Views: 11072
Re: Bravo PP, Bravo! EOM
It surely must feel good to see the PP roaring back to life. Budd, try to remember this the next time the stock market points skyward while the PP plods along at its snails pace. I checked YTD, 12, 24, and 36 month returns of the PP vs VTI on etfreplay. These numbers are quite instructive: YTD: ...
- Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:41 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Super Bowl Predictions
- Replies: 20
- Views: 10058
Re: Super Bowl Predictions
Update: This thought just occurred to me. Maybe it's already out there somewhere but a good idea for an article on the internet would be "Sports Superstars who went out in a blaze of glory". If Peyton Manning wins the super bowl he'll be close to the top of the list but I'm having a hard ...
- Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:43 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Dual Momentum Permanent Portfolio (DMPP)
- Replies: 18
- Views: 13827
Re: Dual Momentum Permanent Portfolio (DMPP)
Ah, it's getting clearer: you are using GEM merely as an indicator for timing your change in assets between stocks and cash. Faber's chart appears at first glance to suggest that a momentum PP is vastly superior to a vanilla PP, but on second look I don't see much difference during the 1970s or from...
- Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:16 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 199507
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
MediumTex provided a similar response here: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/permanent-portfolio-discussion/ultra-low-negative-interest-rates-in-germany/msg140483/#msg140483 The message seems to be that changes in yield will lead to greater volatility in bond prices in low-interest-rate environm...
- Sun Feb 07, 2016 6:38 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: An article about the Japanese Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 12
- Views: 7777
Re: An article about the Japanese Permanent Portfolio
That's why I find Chart 8 to be so impressive: smoother growth, smaller drawdowns, and higher CAGR! Does anyone know how exactly to implement a 7% target risk PP? How is the volatility calculated? It seems that only the percentage of treasury bills was varied in that Japan example; stocks, bonds, ...
- Sun Feb 07, 2016 5:28 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Dual Momentum Permanent Portfolio (DMPP)
- Replies: 18
- Views: 13827
Re: Dual Momentum Permanent Portfolio (DMPP)
Thanks for the quick response. It seems like my understanding of the process was close. You didn't address the GEM concept. Would you advise ever owning international stocks or a total bond market fund in place of US stocks? That seems to go against the HBPP principles. Using Absolute Momentum t...
- Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: An article about the Japanese Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 12
- Views: 7777
Re: An article about the Japanese Permanent Portfolio
A nice read to study how an Japanisation of the Economy could effect the Permanent Portfolio. http://gestaltu.com/2012/09/the-permanent-portfolio-turns-japanese.html/ The article also explores a few more rebalancing mechanism such as moving average and recent volatility. Haven't budd or ghost or so...
- Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:24 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Dual Momentum Permanent Portfolio (DMPP)
- Replies: 18
- Views: 13827
Re: Dual Momentum Permanent Portfolio (DMPP)
A nice read to study how an Japanisation of the Economy could effect the Permanent Portfolio. http://gestaltu.com/2012/09/the-permanent-portfolio-turns-japanese.html/ The article also explores a few more rebalancing mechanism such as moving average and recent volatility. Haven't budd or ghost or so...
- Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:20 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act
- Replies: 13
- Views: 4310
Re: Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act
PS, I don't think any of the products you listed (BPA, CFCs, lead paint) were developed with the knowledge that they have adverse effects. But there was no FDA-equivalent demanding testing, at the time, to find out. In hindsight, yeah, a lot of those things suck and should be removed from the mark...
- Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:56 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 8260
Re: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?
Two days ago I was in the process of posting a similar question about fees at Fidelity when I noticed this part in their commissions pdf: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Brokerage_Commissions_Fee_Schedule.pdf [img width=500]http://i.imgur.com/wKCYuIj.jpg[/img] So a...
- Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:28 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Where is the money going?
- Replies: 19
- Views: 18325
Re: Where is the money going?
No, you clearly say it yourself. The money doesn't disappear. The money was given to someone else when you bought your stock or house or whatever, it was never destroyed. Then when you sell, you receive someone else's money. Paying off credit is the only way currency can be destroyed. I agree. Let...
- Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:35 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Commission Free Gold ETFs and CEF
- Replies: 12
- Views: 13231
Re: Commission Free Gold ETFs and CEF
What is lower at Schwab, free trade SGOL (high expense ratio) or low expense ratio IAU but commission trade? The trading fee at Schwab is $8.95 and the expense ratios of IAU and SGOL are 0.25 and 0.39%, respectively. That means you would pay 0.14% more to hold SGOL that you would IAU -- each year....
- Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:12 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Bonds vs Deflation
- Replies: 8
- Views: 5237
Re: Bonds vs Deflation
Another way of looking at it is that rebalance bands should be tightened when LTT yields get lower. Or that LTTs should make up a greater percentage of the PP to magnify the effect of their lower volatility. Does that make sense? Great post, Pet Hog, but you lost me at the very end. When yields a...