Search found 118 matches

by johnnywitt
Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is Charles Smith Charles Hugh Smith
Replies: 0
Views: 234

Is Charles Smith Charles Hugh Smith

I was wondering if the Charles Hugh Smith who writes the Blog "Of Two Minds" is the Charles Smith who worked with Harry Browne & Terry Coxen in the 80's and 90's.
by johnnywitt
Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:10 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1964

Re: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs

Or, just weight energy and whatever else in a VP. That's my strategy.
My theory is, if you're going to run a HBPP, then run it as close to the OG as you possibly can, given the newer Capital Controls with banking and possible limitations with your retirement accounts and so on.
by johnnywitt
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2nd asset in tax deferred?
Replies: 17
Views: 1749

Re: 2nd asset in tax deferred?

It's a self employed 401k, so I can buy anything you normally could with a Fidelity account. I also have an inherited IRA that I must withdraw within 10 years. That's awesome! You can also consider gold ETFs, I personally use SGOL as it has probably the lowest ER and the gold is based in Switzerlan...
by johnnywitt
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Remember this website
Replies: 1
Views: 280

Re: Remember this website

Muchas Gracias Amigo.
by johnnywitt
Sat Sep 10, 2022 2:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

No Portfolio is perfect, but for me, having a disciplined mechanistic investment strategy for my Core Retirement Funds that is automatic (15/35) bands works better than most other portfolio strategies. I'm a big gambler otherwise. Looks like I just lost my ass by owning Russian Equities, but my HBPP...
by johnnywitt
Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 39
Views: 3456

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

I used to live in the ghetto and had a similar experience. I represented myself (no prior legal training). The system said pay a little money and basically get a slap on the wrist. I said “What if I don’t pay?”. They said “we’ll toss you in jail”. I said “what kind of food do you serve and can I br...
by johnnywitt
Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Jason, Many of us feel your pain. Back testing has its limitations but you really should run some different portfolios through portfoliovisualizer.com to get an idea of what different asset allocations have and have not done in the past. Maybe try comparing the PP to a 60/40 allocation. Because you...
by johnnywitt
Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2855

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my i...
by johnnywitt
Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 213
Views: 13646

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Although most people on the forum now tend to dismiss Budd, either I missed or there never was a great response to his opinion. If we are actually in a multi-year trend of slowly rising interest rates, what will keep the PP or any Risk Parity portfolio from having the losses we have seen this year ...
by johnnywitt
Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Safe deposit boxes: Revisited
Replies: 17
Views: 1191

Re: Safe deposit boxes: Revisited

What is currently the best SDB Insurance?
by johnnywitt
Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:21 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3553
Views: 1137992

Re: The GOLD scream room

I can see two things that are negatively impacting the GOLD Price: Bitcoin & the USD. A lot of Folks think that Bitcoin is Digital Gold (NOT) and the strong dollar is a well known historical headwind for the 'Barbarous Relic'.
by johnnywitt
Fri Sep 09, 2022 5:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETFs old and new
Replies: 31
Views: 5055

Re: Gold ETFs old and new

I bought PHYS years ago and dislike it but I don't want to pay taxes to switch out of it. I guess I'm stuck. PHYS is a Trust & therefore isn't taxed at the Collectibles rate: it is taxed like any other ETF. This is only true if you filed the proper paperwork with the IRS in the first year that you ...
by johnnywitt
Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 16249

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

To be honest I am not really interested in past articles or charts . I am no longer a fan of driving and looking at what was . I am interested in where we have been heading and what my best guess of the future looks like and it looks like this inflation will be not so transitory and it will stubbor...
by johnnywitt
Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 16249

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

Charts. I love charts. Here is one from ray dalio’s new book. It really speaks for itself. Hard money portfolios. Hell yeah. 3F358F6D-A1A3-4A89-9CEA-79BC7FBA9C1D.jpeg First all FUCK Ray Dalio! Ray is, and has, been talking up China for years now. Why, because Chine is about 65% of his Fund. Secondl...
by johnnywitt
Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 16249

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

Just another point to add :) On listening to HB's radio show yesterday, he advised that he wanted the most volatile assets in the four asset classes. So..... 1/ Did SCV ETF's exist back in 2004? 2/ Substituting SCV for the TSM provides a return improvement and 3/ 40% SCV in the Golden Butterfly act...
by johnnywitt
Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 64
Views: 7257

Re: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio

I-Bonds have no place in a HBPP. They really aren't suitable for a VP either. Something needs to have an upside potential of at least 5X to satisfy HB criteria for a good risk/reward speculation in a VP. YMMV.
by johnnywitt
Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:41 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Very good Cullen Roche post on the current bond situation
Replies: 2
Views: 747

Re: Very good Cullen Roche post on the current bond situation

If one wants to hold a PP or PP variant, then they have to believe in the basic philosophy behind holding such a portfolio. Holding Bonds that aren't Sovereign & aren't Long Duration is antithetical to the basic philosophy. Most Folks aren't suited to holding a PP or variant thereof IMHO. Most "inve...
by johnnywitt
Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Math for LTT purchase.
Replies: 14
Views: 1778

Re: Math for LTT purchase.

So, HB says when buying similar duration bonds on the secondary market that you should counter-intuitively buy the bond with the lower coupon because it's more volatile & you will get the difference back in Capital Gains. Additionally, the Bond, if held in a taxable acct., will cause a lessor tax i...
by johnnywitt
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Blockchain Gold
Replies: 4
Views: 1011

Re: Blockchain Gold

One of the main points of GOLD ownership is no counter party risk. I feel stupid enough holding regular paper gold ETF's.
by johnnywitt
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETFs old and new
Replies: 31
Views: 5055

Re: Gold ETFs old and new

Don wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:39 pm
Yeah, I know. I've owned it for years.
Yeah, in a taxable acct. it still might be the best choice & offer some useful utility.
by johnnywitt
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:39 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What explains the disconnect between gold and Fed balance sheets since about 2013?
Replies: 11
Views: 1907

Re: What explains the disconnect between gold and Fed balance sheets since about 2013?

The FED does NOT want the average Joe or Jane to figure out that there is in fact a relationship between the USD and Gold. They want John Q to believe that Gold is a barbarous relic, or some sort of laughable pet rock. I believe this is one reason that they have stood by and done nothing with this C...
by johnnywitt
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETFs old and new
Replies: 31
Views: 5055

Re: Gold ETFs old and new

I bought PHYS years ago and dislike it but I don't want to pay taxes to switch out of it. I guess I'm stuck. PHYS is a Trust & therefore isn't taxed at the Collectibles rate: it is taxed like any other ETF. Thanks for this. The caveat is that the NAV diverges from the SPOT Price sometimes Don. At l...
by johnnywitt
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:27 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETFs old and new
Replies: 31
Views: 5055

Re: Gold ETFs old and new

I bought PHYS years ago and dislike it but I don't want to pay taxes to switch out of it. I guess I'm stuck. PHYS is a Trust & therefore isn't taxed at the Collectibles rate: it is taxed like any other ETF. Thanks for this. The caveat is that it trades away from NAV and the Spot sometimes Don. At l...
by johnnywitt
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:20 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Math for LTT purchase.
Replies: 14
Views: 1778

Re: Math for LTT purchase.

So, HB says when buying similar duration bonds on the secondary market that you should counter-intuitively buy the bond with the lower coupon because it's more volatile & you will get the difference back in Capital Gains. Additionally, the Bond, if held in a taxable acct., will cause a lessor tax im...
by johnnywitt
Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:33 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETFs old and new
Replies: 31
Views: 5055

Re: Gold ETFs old and new

Don wrote:
Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:50 am
I bought PHYS years ago and dislike it but I don't want to pay taxes to switch out of it. I guess I'm stuck.
PHYS is a Trust & therefore isn't taxed at the Collectibles rate: it is taxed like any other ETF.