Search found 144 matches

by welderwannabe
Tue Apr 29, 2025 10:08 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT vs SCHQ - total
Replies: 4
Views: 1370

Re: TLT vs SCHQ - total

Why not just buy individual issues? I try to have as little treasury mutual funds as possible.
by welderwannabe
Wed Apr 23, 2025 5:18 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ms. Market "votes" on inflation
Replies: 4
Views: 1176

Re: Ms. Market "votes" on inflation

Agreed. I took the losses back in 2023. Its largely just moved sideways since then, in fact rates are lower than the high back in october of 2023, where the 30 year closed at around 5.1%. I didn't sell then, I can hold on for longer. However you should all pray I eventually give up and sell, as that...
by welderwannabe
Tue Apr 22, 2025 1:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Not yet coming here? [to the Forum]
Replies: 27
Views: 4007

Re: Not yet coming here? [to the Forum]

Yah its been hard lately being in LTT's for sure.
by welderwannabe
Fri Apr 18, 2025 9:44 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3934
Views: 2372383

Re: The GOLD scream room

Golds also more in vogue now. When your shoe-shine boy starts wearing gold rings/necklaces and chats about gold being so great - the up arrow might have peaked, turn and start a down-run. Stocks PE down from recent 26 to half of that. You must travel in different circles. All I hear about is stocks...
by welderwannabe
Fri Mar 28, 2025 10:58 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Texas Bullion Depository is the Best Way to Protect Your Gold
Replies: 20
Views: 20732

Re: Texas Bullion Depository is the Best Way to Protect Your Gold

CNT Depository in Bridgewater, MA works well for people that live in new england. Their rates start at .67% for one coin and the rate lowers as assets increase. I have personal experience with them as a customer...Of course. unfortunately all my gold was recently lost in a tragic boating accident th...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 12:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Texas introduces GAULT legislation
Replies: 10
Views: 8485

Re: Texas introduces GAULT legislation

What I really want to know is this... if gold & silver in Texas become legal tender (I live in Houston), will that generate a legal case where the way gold is taxed Federally, as a Collectible, is challenged? That's probably a major intent of the legislation. How can we become part of the class...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 11:52 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

July 2018: $183,100 January 2022: $131,500 Ouch, I dont know what to tell you there. Even according to FRED govt statistics: Q2 of 2018 median home selling price was $315,000 Q3 of 2024 median home selling price was $420,400 That is a 33% increase in home prices. Porfolio visualizer. Q3 of 2018 $31...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 11:33 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Kevin K. wrote: Sat Nov 30, 2024 10:07 am And it's not like it isn't subject to a ton of scrutiny by owners of TIPS bonds and managers of TIPS funds.
Nothing has more scrutiny than the monthly jobs reports, and the revisions in that thing are mind blowing. CPI is brought to you by the guys that do that.
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 11:17 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

While I don't entirely disagree with your sentiments the dates you chose to compare TIPS and gold are arbitrary and obviously chosen to favor your argument for gold and against TIPS. I mean if we're going to just choose arbitrary dates to base our arguments on, here's a comparison of short-TIPS (VT...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 6:32 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Was there any time period when one held TIPS were held to maturity that you did not get what was promised? A rate of return plus the inflation during that period? Yes, the entire time. The 'inflation' metric the government has invented and constantly changes, with some changes major, does not measu...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 29, 2024 2:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

William Bernstein is one among many who have shown that gold is not an effective inflation hedge. It is a severe circumstances hedge. Well Bill Bernstein is a huge huge huge fan of TIPS. Ive heard him speak about it several times. Regardless, look over the years since TIPS were out. Pick reasonable...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 29, 2024 10:34 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

I do agree with adjusting the ratios of the assets. I find it unlikely that 25/25/25/25 just happened to be the perfect ratio for everything. Its that way for simplicity. Thats why I do 60/20/20. As for TIPS vs Gold, suggest people perform backtesting gold vs TIPS since TIPS have been available and ...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 29, 2024 7:28 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Does anyone have any sage words of advice - are things going to get better for LTT? Keep DCA'ing and hang in there? Retool my PP? What? Stay the course. Maybe trim the position, but I wouldn't jump out. The most dangerous sentence in investing is 'This time its different'. The stock market will cra...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 29, 2024 7:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Doesn't make any sense to me to not trust TIPS but trust nominal Treasuries, given that they are issued by the same entity. Sure it does. They both have a non zero default risk, sure, but Nominal Treasurys are a fixed rate, locked in for the life of the instrument. Tips are adjusted up and down bas...
by welderwannabe
Thu Nov 28, 2024 6:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 50641

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Same with me, I don't enjoy owning LTTs, but I continue to do so. 20%. Not sure I trust tips, in fact I know I don't. The CPI they are indexed against is subject to too much manipulation. They continually change its definition and miraculously it always results in lower inflation output. Its also pu...
by welderwannabe
Sun Nov 24, 2024 2:34 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Portfolio Charts Cash Article
Replies: 8
Views: 7681

Re: Portfolio Charts Cash Article

No gold. My major concern is inflation. It's been demonstrated many times that gold does not protect against inflation. It only protects against severe events. I consider those to be extremely unlikely so want to protect against what I've already experienced for many years of my life and which, the...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 23, 2024 11:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?
Replies: 33
Views: 20275

Re: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?

That all said, I keep lost of bonds in taxable. My theory is that our taxes are all likely to go up based on our deficits. Strap in for the ride. Are you thinking that you may have a harvestable capital loss with your bonds over time, as long rates stay high or go higher due to increased US Treasur...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 23, 2024 11:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?
Replies: 33
Views: 20275

Re: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?

For traditional IRA types ... it ends up all the same with having it there or in taxable. Both taxed at ordinary income rates. Could be a different story for Roth IRA types. Only true if your marginal tax rate is the same when you're working as when you retire. In most case it isn't, your tax rate ...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 23, 2024 11:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?
Replies: 33
Views: 20275

Re: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?

many retirees , self included tend to have built a lifestyle around their higher years and retirement income is about that range Watching my parents, now in their 70's, their tax rates were in fact higher in their early retirement. However, they are significantly lower now...22% to 24% marginal rat...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 23, 2024 11:35 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Portfolio Charts Cash Article
Replies: 8
Views: 7681

Re: Portfolio Charts Cash Article

Is important to me because I have now evolved to soon investing a super simple portfolio. 35% Total Stock Market 15% Nominal Treasuries 50% TIPS Wow, no gold? My issue with TIPS is they are indexed against CPI, of which the government has changed the 'basket' of many times and I believe it under re...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 22, 2024 6:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?
Replies: 33
Views: 20275

Re: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?

For traditional IRA types ... it ends up all the same with having it there or in taxable. Both taxed at ordinary income rates. Could be a different story for Roth IRA types. Only true if your marginal tax rate is the same when you're working as when you retire. In most case it isn't, your tax rate ...
by welderwannabe
Tue Nov 19, 2024 11:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?
Replies: 33
Views: 20275

Re: Does it make sense to start at 4x25?

Im still accumulating, well at least until I quit my job in a few weeks.

I am 60% equities, 20% LTT, 20% gold.

The cash I keep is enough for 2 years of expenses. I feel thats enough. That is not included in the above.
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 02, 2024 5:19 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3934
Views: 2372383

Re: The GOLD scream room

When gold is on TikTok, time to rebalance I generally agree, but with our debt situation I feel like its still got room to move. Won't break my heart if it pulls back $1,000. I'd just buy more. Long term, in this country with both Trump and Harris spending plans, gold is going to become a very impo...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 02, 2024 5:17 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: iBonds / TreasuryDirect
Replies: 43
Views: 72569

Re: iBonds / TreasuryDirect

boglerdude wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 4:29 am Anybody doing leveraged. https://old.reddit.com/r/LETFs/
Nope. My guts can barely handle the non leveraged 30 year.
by welderwannabe
Sat Oct 26, 2024 11:31 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: 1031 exchange EFT -> Bullion
Replies: 6
Views: 10726

Re: 1031 exchange EFT -> Bullion

My understanding is after the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (AKA the Trump Tax Cuts), the rules were tightened around 1031 exchanges to limit to only real estate. So no, I don't believe you can do this anymore.

I double checked with my wife, who is a CPA, and she confirmed we are SOL.