Meant to throw this in earlier, with the last post

I put in PFIX instead of LTT's. It was definitely very anticorrelated with rising interest rates. I just wish I had longer term data. Keep talking Mathjak! Also I wish I did not have to rely on a few people as my defense. The expense ratio is a very reasonable 0.5 percent.

Just looked over your post on the VP side. The post where you break the whole portfolio down is very informative. I’ll be thinking mulling it over seriously. Especially the 3x ETF’s and all the aqr etfs.

Second that. One thing I think would be important is to say that you have appeared to have several different strategies over the years. I recall there was a (newsletter based) fidelity strategy with bitcoin thrown in for a turbo charge. then there was the bond tent, and now there is the current one....

I did some test calls to Robinhood support and my experience was horrendous. The cash back is amazing but getting a simple answer across a VoIP call to some person on the other end of the world was almost comical. Next I called Fidelity about about a slightly complicated brokerage and tax question a...

Personally, I’m a buyer of LTT’s. I’m buying the longest duration bonds I can get. Last ones I purchased were November 2054. I have enough offense, I want defense. Plus if all else fails I think 5 percent returns are OK even with high(ish) inflation. Im also attempting to embrace contrarian thinking...

Thanks mathjak. That’s a lot to think about.

Did some backtesting and it was definitely not correlated with the market when the market was going down (which was impressive). I did see that it lagged significantly when the market was (is) on a hot streak and I wonder how the 3 percent fee eats away at the gains. Not saying it’s bad. It could be...

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2025 6:39 pm the correct info is on morningstar

it started in 2020 by aqr which was founded by guru cliff asness


https://funds.aqr.com/funds/alternative ... dsnx#about

You’re right I see it now.

https://mutinyfund.com/cockroach/

Part three describes how they use volatility and managed futures as defense.

I’m looking at a chart. I don’t see these numbers. It’s looks choppy to flat to me and it has only been around for 2 years.

I’m with you on the CTA’s but there seem to be so many moving parts, rely on trader skills, and they are usually very expensive for protection. I think the ETF you mentioned is a 1 percent expense and qdsnx is 3 percent. I have an aversion to complication and expenses. It could be foolish in the lon...

bonds will likely fall in value as there is a good chance it will be the perception of higher inflation and either no more fed cuts or them reversing course and going up again that will cause a sell off like today as investors flee risk assets. 2022 showed how there is no see saw effect that says i...

the down turns we have been seeing have equities and bonds joined at the hip . you have all the risk stocks have had with LT’s but not the gain potential. to many better ways today to hedge that are not linked to either Rates are at 5 percent. In a market downturn do you believe the rates will go u...

Any thoughts on tilting the PP to 15% LTT and 35% cash/tbills? If deflation is THAT uncommon, then tilting seems appropriate while keeping the core philosophy intact One thing to note is that, it is easy sound confident about the past, especially if it worked out. I view LTT's as the defense. You m...

perfect_simulation wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2025 3:25 pm Any thoughts on tilting the PP to 15% LTT and 35% cash/tbills? If deflation is THAT uncommon, then tilting seems appropriate while keeping the core philosophy intact

I use the Golden Butterfly. I a little less than 20 precent at the moment.

In again at 4.97%.

Excellent post. Need to review carefully. I am in the glide path stage

the first wrong premise is that 17 years later the market was still trying to recover from the great depression. it actually recovered inflation adjusted in a mere 4-1/2 years from the great depression. An investor who invested a lump sum in the average stock at the market’s 1929 high would have be...

i retired in 2015 and reduced a few years prior to about 60/40 a better glide path for approaching retirement has been realized and is called the red zone . i just passed thru the red zone and am ramping equities back up from about 40% to 50- 60% https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-portfolio-size-...

Then it seems easiest to just VTI (VTSAX) and chill. Which incidentally, I do for my kids because I do think with dividends reinvested and long enough time horizion, the numbers work. But if I you start with a thesis that you actually have no idea what is going to happen, then I think LTT or some de...

or it could be throwing good money after bad. there has been no good news when it comes to long term bonds . they haven’t had a positive return now for anyone holding them the last decade , the last 5 years , the last 3 years , the last one year 1 yr minus 7% 3 yr minus 13% 5 yr minus 7% you would ...

Here how the Gippity summarizes the book. 1. Introduction to Value Investing -Emphasis on investing with a margin of safety: buying securities at a significant discount to their intrinsic value to minimize risk and maximize returns. -Focus on fundamentals rather than market trends or speculation. 2....

One thing I would suggest is to run the PDF file through virustotal.com to make sure the PDF is good.