Search found 41 matches

by LittleDinghy
Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 148403

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Can you see your emotional bias coming forth there in that wording? SPY is 5% away from all-time highs. SLYV is still 25% away from all-time highs. Relatively speaking, there's still a lot of room left for SCV to play catch up. If your allocation is to hold 20% SCV, I would just plug your nose and ...
by LittleDinghy
Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 148403

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

A chorus of wise advice here I must say - or rather, ruefully admit, since I sold my SCV at a loss a few weeks back and reverted to the PP from the GB. We have a similar story. Earlier this year my wife and I moved SCV-invested money from our employer-provided individual HSA accounts to new HSA acc...
by LittleDinghy
Fri May 01, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 148403

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Last night I just did my end-of-month adding up of our GB portfolio (our whole nest egg for retirement - 2-1/2 years away for me and 7 years away for my spouse) and was pleasantly surprised to find it had hit a new high, a little larger but essentially the same as its previous high the end of Januar...
by LittleDinghy
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Data on Re-balancing Bands for Taxable vs Non-Taxable Accounts?
Replies: 7
Views: 1201

Re: Data on Re-balancing Bands for Taxable vs Non-Taxable Accounts?

you don't want to go rebalancing on a whim. You should have some set rules in place. If I were to pick some good rules, I would probably come up with something like 20/30 in non taxable and 15/35 in taxable. Brilliant! Great points. It seems like for taxable accounts that re-balancing is almost a b...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:17 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)
Replies: 17
Views: 2241

Re: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)

IAU or GLD are what the vast majority of us use for so called paper gold. My preference is IAU because of the much lighter ER. My preference is IAU because of the much lighter ER." About this time a year ago, when I was thinking a lot about how to set up my GB, people on this forum expressed a lot ...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 148403

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

My simplistic way of potentially dealing with rebalancing a GB (which is just a HBPP + 20% VB for me) was to track the HBPP portion separately and when the HBPP portion hits a 15%/35% limit on any of the HBPP assets I would rebalance everything back to a GB allocation (20% in all 5 assets). My rati...
by LittleDinghy
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 1436
Views: 82506

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Likewise Sophie. I wish you and yours turn out ok. Hopefully your niece is young!

My wife and I are fine, as is a friend staying with us (who came only after self-quarantining for 15 days)
by LittleDinghy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 148403

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

"Per the quote below, and others from the thread,Sophie recommends 30% re-balancing bands [20% plus or minus 30% of 20% (=6%), meaning a range of 14% - 26%]. You might wonder, as I did, why she did not recommend a 40% re-balancing band, such as used with the PP (meaning a range of 15%-35% for the P...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 148403

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I’m curious about why you choose different rebalancing bands for stocks. Since the GB basically " tilts the [PP] portfolio slightly towards Prosperity " ( https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/04/18/the-theory-behind-the-golden-butterfly/), our thought is that the re-balancing band for stocks should ref...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 148403

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I"m sharing below our GB allocation percentages; it would be interesting to compare with others' GB (and PP) portfolios. I had gotten into the habit of checking our allocation percentages at the end of every month, and Jan 31 was our highest total portfolio value since starting the GB last June with...
by LittleDinghy
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Tax-Loss Harvesting Recommendation (Vanguard Total Stock Index)
Replies: 11
Views: 2211

Re: Tax-Loss Harvesting Recommendation (Vanguard Total Stock Index)

I have never tax loss harvested before and need help. On 8/20/2019 we purchased VTMSX (Vanguard tax-managed small cap value mutual fund) in our taxable account; at the time this money represented about 7% of our nest egg (all in our GB portfolio - we have no VP - everything is in the GB). This eveni...
by LittleDinghy
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalance during these days of high volatility?
Replies: 25
Views: 4358

Re: Rebalance during these days of high volatility?

In my PP, 4x25, LTT is at least 15% above stocks, as of today’s closing prices. Is there any advice on whether to rebalance between the 2 immediately or wait until the volatility calms down a bit? My reading of The Permanent Portfolio book is that the recommended time to rebalance is when one asset...
by LittleDinghy
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stay cool...
Replies: 40
Views: 6523

Re: Stay cool...

Yes, thank you Craig (and Harry). I discovered your book about 1-1/2 years ago, and my wife and I started implementing the PP (actually the Golden Butterfly variation - Tyler thank you too!) in March or April last year, and finally finished implementing it for our savings the end of June last year (...
by LittleDinghy
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Replies: 26
Views: 5406

Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands

Thank you both, Tyler and vnatale. One tax planning question I have is what my target should be for asset location in tax deferred, taxable and tax free accounts. Right now we’re stuck with having to put the bulk of our equity investments in my 401k and my wife’s 403b, 401a and 457 ( no gold or trea...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can Interest Rates Ever Go Up Again? ZIRP Forever?
Replies: 14
Views: 3284

Re: Can Interest Rates Ever Go Up Again? ZIRP Forever?

Thank you pmward. Very helpful indeed.
by LittleDinghy
Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Replies: 26
Views: 5406

Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands

...be sure to account for how required minimum distributions may impact your potential tax bracket when running the numbers. ...I'm sure a good fee-only tax adviser would be able to help. Thank you Tyler. It is the RMDs that will keep us in our current tax bracket after retirement. I've not used a ...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can Interest Rates Ever Go Up Again? ZIRP Forever?
Replies: 14
Views: 3284

Re: Can Interest Rates Ever Go Up Again? ZIRP Forever?

Can deleveraging happen in a higher interest rate environment? Say inflation picks up and is running at 5% per year, but bond yields are suppressed at 4%, is that not a deleveraging? Slowly inflating away the debt? This is the same tactic we used in the post WWII era, and one we are currently using...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
Replies: 25
Views: 5795

Re: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break

Might I introduce you to Tyler's wonderful article on bond convexity: https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/ Combine that with the fact that gold is highly correlated to negative real interest rates, and the fact that lower risk free rates c...
by LittleDinghy
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Replies: 26
Views: 5406

Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands

Personally I'm not a hard rebalancing band guy, as I prioritize keeping things generally balanced while being smart about tax management. But if you want to use PP-style bands, I think something between +/- 5% and 10% should work just fine. Thank you Tyler. I'm new to this, having had everything in...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Replies: 26
Views: 5406

Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands

Also, it would be interesting to see what Tyler would recommend as rebalancing bands for the GB.
by LittleDinghy
Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Replies: 26
Views: 5406

Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands

Per the quote below, and others from the thread https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=10289 Sophie recommends 30% re-balancing bands [20% plus or minus 30% of 20% (=6%), meaning a range of 14% - 26%]. You might wonder, as I did, why she did not recommend a 40% re-balancing ba...
by LittleDinghy
Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Golden Butterfly
Replies: 28
Views: 3919

Re: Golden Butterfly

Sophie, please see my more complete original questions at the post by LittleDinghy on Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:43 am. Thank you. I'd really like to more thoroughly understand your reasoning.
by LittleDinghy
Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Golden Butterfly
Replies: 28
Views: 3919

Re: Golden Butterfly

I believe Sophie means "40% bands" for the PP as 0.25 ± 40% (or 0.25 ± 0.10, from 0.35 to 0.15). And "30% bands" for the GB as 0.20 ± 30% (or 0.20 ± 0.06, from 0.26 to 0.14). Yes, I'm confident that is what she meant. However, what I don't understand is her reasoning for using "30% bands" for her G...
by LittleDinghy
Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
Replies: 18
Views: 3567

Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Golden Butterfly finally completely invested as of 6/30/19.
Used XIRR (taking into account all contributions) to determine annualized before-tax return, based on 6/30-12/31 performance, of 12.1%.