Just an add-on. From what I understand, part of the big difference between the long-term and short-term debt cycles (in addition to what has been mentioned), is that at the end of the long-term debt cycle interest rates can't be lowered any further because they're already pretty much at zero percent...

I just recently finished reading Ray Dalio's book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises.

For those of you who haven't touched upon it yet, it's an incredible read. Also, it will definitely reinforce the notion that gold is part of any good balanced breakfast portfolio.

It seems to me that the PP is still as relevant as ever, even in a low interest rate environment.

Those low interest rates are putting the hurt on other, more traditional portfolios, as well.

Thanks for this effort, it's off to a great start. It'd be nice for this site to reprise Craig's tradition of an annual post on the PP's annual returns, with an explanation for why each of the four assets did what it did, and comparison to a couple benchmarks. Another useful resource would be a lis...

I’m taking the most left field and out there prediction.

I say the PP returns 900% next year as the U.S. dollar collapses and gold skyrockets.

I will bet you a snickers bar.

For what it's worth, Harry Browne in Best Laid Plans said that he hoped the reader would put no less than 20% and no more than 35% in each of the given asset classes.

Maybe that changed in the intervening time between that book and his radio show.

Not to try and plug too much, but feel free to visit my website's repository of Harry Browne's show!

https://www.gyroscopicportfolios.com/ha ... adio-show/

Merry Christmas - target allocation is 35/15/15/35. A little more prosperity and cash, a little less gold and LTT’s. I think I can follow this allocation without much regret. Merry Christmas. Thanks If I was a little younger I would go at least 40% prosperity as cash does not return full value a lo...

I'm on the same page as you guys. Remember the original epic PP thread over at the Bogleheads forum? I've read the whole thing from start to finish -- multiple times. With perhaps the biggest exception being the brief scuffle between MediumTex and Larry Swedroe, everyone seemed so gung ho on the str...

Nice-looking website, Smith! I agree but I'd like to see the returns in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. I suspect the "flattening" that we see over the last ten years or so is at least partly due to inflation being low during that entire period. Check out this page from Ryan Melvey's site: http://...

It’s funniest when people are arguing about the strategy and keep saying “PP” in the middle of a bunch of serious statements.

Nice-looking website, Smith! I agree but I'd like to see the returns in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. I suspect the "flattening" that we see over the last ten years or so is at least partly due to inflation being low during that entire period. Check out this page from Ryan Melvey's site: http://...