does anyone seriously think that government underspending is ever going to be a problem here.

i would never invest my money based on that premise

everything is not invertible and true

i remember my economic professor drew two graphs .

one was inflation rising and the other showed that the preferred activity in high inflation was going to the movies .

and then he said , well there it is , proof that going to the movies causes inflation

i have a limited margin account in my ira with fidelity

not me . long term treasuries already failed at running with the ball as support for a portfolio. alternative funds as protection has demonstrated they can run with the ball . so until shown they can’t i rather go with alternatives for my protection. i don’t need a fair weather friend that only work...

it took a long time for many to realize that bonds are not protection for equities , in fact they need protection like equities do , especially long term bonds which don’t see saw reliably with stocks . even gold has been tied to equities and bonds which really hurts when they move down together . i...

i use my bond ladder as i would cds …no longer than 5 years tops and held to maturity. the advantage to cds is with new yorks high state and local taxes these are exempt . i dont use bonds as any kind of protection for equities , they stink at that . i use actual hedges to protect both stocks and bo...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the St. Louis Fed both estimate that the probability of deflation in the United States is 0%.
The US has only experienced deflation twice in the last 60 years, in 2009 and 2015.

both were short lived

then you have to do what you have to do . bet on the long shot … but like i said years ago here , that is expensive coverage and those who bought in to it have sustained severe losses for it most have not only sustained losses on their long term treasuries but the amount given up in gains that was n...

japan made every error in the book including raising rates when they should have open the spigots , which caused their deflation and we learned exactly what not to do from them . odds of deflation happening are as slim as can be anymore . it’s like preparing to fight the last war . any issues that s...

exactly . we can insure anything and everything today . you need to choose what you insure against carefully . insurance has a cost to it . i wouldn’t insure against deflation much at all anymore …if anything inflation and potential rising rates are a far far greater risk . a big risk today is the ...

Absolutely

Google managed futures etfs

There are so many

My main one is dbmf

If you read my posts I have said over and over gains are secondary to risk vs reward All these newer portfolios have a better risk reward than the pp The reaper beat not only the PP but 60/40 since 2019 and blew away the pp in both much less risk and return in the debacles while the pp got crushed T...

if all my investment decisions the last 30 plus years were based on what if we have deflation , i would be a whole lot poorer for it . in fact what happened in 2022 and the pp crapped the bed is the more likely scenario when risk is off today and all computer driven models follow the same path . wit...

i have never given any thought to using it since i have no real interest rate risk anymore but about 5% of the portfolio seems like a recommended starting point . personally i rather not take on that interest rate risk with bonds over 5 years so i use a mix of laddered bonds with about 2.5 years ave...

interesting .

but that is an example of what i am saying here …it’s important to keep an open mind to the fact that old school methods may have been the way in the day but it just had to many shortcomings

well you wouldn’t use it instead of long term treasuries , you would use it with them , especially at times we are at record lows to hedge the damage of a rate rise . again , these are not stand alone investments. they are improved ways of making portfolios smoother and less volatile under more vari...

all we can do is try to put the odds on our side and monitor it along the way .. it’s no different than medical science , where what was once believed to be true or the way to treat something no longer is found to be the best way. strategies that have been used for decades are finally being brought ...

there are funds today that can hedge your bonds The Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) seeks to hedge interest rate movements arising from rising long-term interest rates and to benefit from market stress when fixed income volatility increases. T­he fund holds a large position in over-the-count...

there is a whole new way of investing out there available to us. , there are so many funds and etfs now out there that correlate differently to stocks almost all the time. not just when the planets are in correct alignment like treasury’s which left us high and dry in 2022 with nothing capable of ho...

the point is that there are much better strategies available today to ride shotgun gun for equities then long term bonds which are to wish washy as far as protecting a portfolio and not just for using in deflation

they did out perform the s&p during the lost decade .

but by the same token a simple mix of 50% equities and 50% gold has beaten a mix of equities and bonds over almost every time frame the last two decades

well all i can say then is buy long bonds . for me capital preservation and growth are what matters and i want the highest risk vs reward i can achieve that meets my goals in retirement. a 4% swr has provided a minimum level of income for 123 rolling 30 year cycles so far and no bonds are even neede...

while the funds are new the strategy’s are decades old.

so while market cycles may be no different, the level of risk vs rewards we can achieve as small investors is certainly different

long bonds though have not bern that great for hedging against market declines .. they are only a defense in a deflationary scenario . otherwise you are left hung out to dry pretty naked most of the time and that’s my gripe . when 3 asset classes all react poorly to a rising rate scenario. that’s te...

so do intermediate term bonds and if an income that doesn’t change is desired then an spia is likely the best bet . a 65 year old can see a lifetime draw rate of income of 7.65% today from an spia .thats 638 a month for 100k i couldn’t imagine getting locked in to a rate for just about forever at th...