Search found 4086 matches

by mathjak107
Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

There are next to no posts in this forum …I can easily not post it means nothing to me whether I post or not ..but I try to At least keep posts alive , interesting and informative. No problem we can just go back to near no posts in this section then there is nothing new to read or take interest in …...
by mathjak107
Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

Meh …. My feeling is a newbie should be exposed to as much information about the pp as they can both good and bad . Moving certain facts away and only presenting the good really is not a good thing to do to new bees ..but then it goes back to the discussion being flipped back in to my choices and di...
by mathjak107
Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

The problem is when statements are made about the pp action , others ask questions about what I am doing or try to counter what was said about the pp with a negative to what my alternatives are or how they perform. So any comment against something about the pp results in discussions of what happens ...
by mathjak107
Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 204
Views: 17340

Re: BTC in the PP

Here is my opinion since while not a pp user it is a part of my gold budget that flys fighter cover for my portfolio. The problem is we don’t know what bitcoin will respond to …. While it is not tied to a particular country’s currency it kind of marches to its own drum ..it is not held by major cent...
by mathjak107
Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

It looks like if we were not discussing me , there wouldn’t be a discussion here and this forum would be dead. So at least some activity is better then no activity if it is interesting activity…

If it wasn’t for something I said or a response to bud there is nothing to read here for days on end
by mathjak107
Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

It may or may not …my portfolio unlike wellsely does not have long term bonds if rates rise and inflation won’t come down …. While wellesly is close it isn’t the same..wellesly has a lot of bonds going out 10-30 years.. only the equity allocation is in the range. Wellesly has no high yield either Th...
by mathjak107
Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

It back tested to within spitting distance of the pp without gbtc and that was through a time that was ripe for the pp with low rates and falling inflation .. Now it will be interesting to watch it going forward under the opposite conditions I bet a GB with BITCOIN outperforms. Well track it going ...
by mathjak107
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

It back tested to within spitting distance of the pp without gbtc and that was through a time that was ripe for the pp with low rates and falling inflation ..

Now it will be interesting to watch it going forward under the opposite conditions
by mathjak107
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

Nice attempt for what it’s worth …your more ambitious than I am. It does backtest well .

Now I need to name it

I think wellsely is close although wellesly does hold a fair amount of long term bonds .

Wellesly is a fine fund for retirement
by mathjak107
Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

I I know exactly how each individual portfolio does and my own results are in between the income model and the growth model ..I have no reason to get in to the weeds with a lot of calculations . What I do take interest in is how just the income model compares to the pp since they are the same equit...
by mathjak107
Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

I I know exactly how each individual portfolio does and my own results are in between the income model and the growth model ..I have no reason to get in to the weeds with a lot of calculations . What I do take interest in is how just the income model compares to the pp since they are the same equity...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

No idea …All I can tell you is what the individual models show since I only do a year end balance comparison AFTER OUR YEARLY SPENDING. There are just to many moving parts in retirement because many pieces of the portfolio are in our taxable account we live on . So money is always going in and comi...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

This is years old but an example , no one should use this as it is not representative of current models

Image
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

Yes the two models are 75% of the total invested dollars . Unfortunately when you use a subscription newsletter I can’t disclose the exact funds as everyone pays for that info . If you want a sample of a very old copy of the models which were once used that I can post so you can kind of see what the...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

I don’t track performance since I retired and we are drawing out 6 figures a year ..only tracking I do personally is i compare balances left year to year …it’s the only thing that matters now Any performance tracking I do is done by the newsletter in the models themselves and i use a mix of two of t...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

It’s multiple portfolios…..and the funds change over time …but I can give you the two portfolios returns since they are tracked right on the fidelity insight website . I use a mix of the two which varies too ,I keep equities in the 25- 40% range ..times like now I am more towards 30% …so exact numbe...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

Although we like to say thinking this time is different , rarely happens , the truth is history rarely repeats itself . Not long ago one of your oft-repeated tropes was how much money people lose assuming "this time is different" rather than sticking with "what has been and has a good chance of con...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

You got that right ……exactly what I keep saying …….forget charts and what was ..we really are in uncharted territory. Remember how markets tanked first Iraq war ? Second time markets went up on the news ….. Thinking we are going to get a play out the way we did last time is random at best.. Odds are...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

It is what it is and it certainly illustrates the fact that the pp is experiencing a lot more interest rate drag . Both last year , and so far this year, as last year the pp lagged again with the same equity allocation the only difference being the interest rate and inflation weight on the other ass...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...
by mathjak107
Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

Meh …..all these charts tell us little …we really are in uncharted waters ….rates this low and equity valuations this high coupled with so many new ways to bet against the market or economic outcomes says just keep your fingers crossed going forward
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

We are actually seeing both …look at cash in real return , it’s minus 7% as far as what it buys vs what it bought

Every investment that is down is actually. down its nominal return plus another 7% in inflation


The investment world is about real returns
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

I envy you .

Every time I try to do that I end up looking in a day or two ..I hate it but it has been this way for 33 years
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

a It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios?...
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 202
Views: 5219

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...