I had a thought (dangerous, right?). The US auto industry is self-segregating to become a USA-only supplier. The gigantic and costly vehicles and wasteful (of fuel) vehicles here don't sell overseas. So I definitely see a repeat of the 1970s on the move now, where the US auto industry is so un-diver...

we use bob clyatts 95/5 dynamic method of withdrawal. we have been retired 10 years and find it as simple as can be . we simply set our goalposts at 4% of the actually balance each year on dec31 . in the event of a down year like 2022 you take the higher of : 4% of the balance or 5% less then you t...

I think the danger is that you are too exposed on the long duration fixed income side.

Darn! Schwab SGVT is live, but priced at $100 per share. What good is that? Same as BIL or SGOV. Not a place to park loose change less than $100, because no fractional ETF shares at Schwab. Guess I will keep using SCHO for that.

This month has some increase to US equity allocation... the models called for addition of SPY and QQQ. I overrode those symbols, and substituted USMV for SPY (minimum volatility ETF) and SCHG for QQQ (SCHG doesn't own "Strategy" which I think is absurd). Mostly equities, thought, are exUS ...

they are but they work with other assets in risk parity fashion . it is not a performance or timing thing like it is when he talks about missing the worst days in stock and using timing models to get in and out I think you're splitting hairs, man. Putting together a portfolio of highly uncorrelated...

Under the proposed law, the Texas Comptroller would issue gold and silver specie (coins) through the Texas Bullion Depository and also establish gold and silver transactional currency defined as “the representation of gold and silver specie and bullion held in the pooled depository account.” Since ...

When I'm too old to manage things, it's either a simple lazy robust portfolio run by my daughter, or go with these people... but that could be 15 years in the future, maybe they're retired, too, by then. OMG GenX is getting older, too! I like how John blows up the investment community myths. https:/...

{BTW - Greece now, 14 years later, has a budget SURPLUS...} "Maybe you forget Grexit, the nickname given to Greece's multi-year financial crisis in the mid-2010s. It had many people, investors and governments worried the small nation would be forced to withdraw from the European Union. It was a...

I think I posted in Fall 2022 on one of these threads that it would be a great time to enter the PP, on a severe drawdown (worst of all time, it turns out). Looks like I was right. Since then, HBPP beats 60/40, which it usually doesn't do in a bull market. We're still in a bull market in stocks sinc...

I don't own FBND, I also think it's too long. I'm keeping ~2 years average in my port. I was just saying, it's better than AGG, BND.

Let's go

Does that really make a lot of sense, that the states could be more reliable at returning nominal dollars when they can't print and the feds can? I bought some short-term munis in an ETF, it's the iShares IBM* (* is a wildcard) family of ETFs. Choose your maturity. I'm keeping the term short, 1-2 y...

I just found out that Texas has a program whereby seniors 65+ can defer paying all property tax until their home is no longer their primary residence, and interest accrues at 5% annually... and no taxing authorities are allowed to foreclose on you during that time. Other States offer this too. This ...

Fidelity FBND is pretty good for an aggregate bond fund

interesting enough powell made a statement this morning “Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’ provide policy challenges” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. “We m...

I use this one: Walked-forward maximize Sharpe Ratio, with low exposure to rising interest rates https://allocatesmartly.com/big-new-feature-walked-forward-optimal-strategy-combinations-aka-meta-walk-forwards/ Sorry, it's behind a paywall, but honestly, it's worth every penny. I pay this service 1/3...

Indians lured to war in Ukraine by Russia under pretense of job opportunities

https://youtu.be/k6Dlqw8PVnM?si=DWylQPbuqnosrLkf

Washington — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congressional leaders Friday (May 09, 2025) that the federal government could be unable to pay its bills as soon as August if Congress doesn't act, urging lawmakers to address the debt limit by mid July. In a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson, Be...

White Sox not Cubs

OCHOTONA Hi! Invesco's Swiss Franc ETF + iGOV iShares International sovereign bond ETF = both for 25% cash portion of PP? Or it is a second PP outside US-HB-PP? 8) ??? One consideration is that the IGOV has a duration of 7-8 years, similar to IEF. Some people implement a US Permanent Portfolio of 2...

I'm very satisfied that the poor and marginalized, migrants. and the Global South generally , continue to have someone in their corner. I view his Papacy as the second Latin American Papacy, as much as it is a North American Papacy. He is a naturalized Peruvian citizen, after all, and he was a Bisho...

Hi 👋🏻 An US citizen should have 20-30% in directly euros 💶? I don't think Euro is the best choice for US persons. Many EU countries (I'm looking at you, France) have as bad a debt crisis as the US - NATO has been tasked with increasing deficit spending to fund defense, Germany is taking on more deb...

No one knows that a complete collapse of US Bonds and Cash and Stocks would look like, but long-term scenarios being suggested by various gold bugs out there like Jordan Roy-Bryne are 10,000 - 25,000 USD. It's 3400 now, so if it goes up by 4x to 13,600 then you're covered in nominal terms. Even Luke...

Gold has doubled since this first post of this thread.