Search found 2559 matches

by ochotona
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2562
Views: 423380

Re: The GOLD scream room

Took some TLT profits on Friday, holding in cash (2% dividend) to see if we get a dip in gold, will buy ETF in IRAs to supplement physical. Would like $1380 level over the next few months.
by ochotona
Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Trump Considering Issuance of 50 & 100-Year Bonds
Replies: 2
Views: 58

Re: Trump Considering Issuance of 50 & 100-Year Bonds

Don't cry for me Argentina...
by ochotona
Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 403
Views: 84946

Re: The Bond Dream Room

She's a scientist so she knows how to read charts and graphs. She also has that woman's intuition for when something is a good deal and when it is overpriced.
by ochotona
Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 403
Views: 84946

Re: The Bond Dream Room

I showed my TLT chart to my wife she told me to sell some. I did when my tight trailing stop alert went off. More and more cash...
by ochotona
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2562
Views: 423380

Re: The GOLD scream room

Technically speaking, gold had formed one of the most beautiful long term bases I've ever seen, and it slowly over years finally built up enough steam to blow the lid off the pot. Same exact thing will happen to oil. Gold took six years, which means we have to look past 2020 for oil to do the same....
by ochotona
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money
Replies: 19
Views: 409

Re: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money

One form of “mental accounting” (kind of like a fallacy) that I engage in is that i find it fairly easy to hold an asset even when I don’t feel like buying more of it. Yup. The Endowment fallacy or illusion. Seriously though, TLT has gone vertical for all intents and purposes. It cannot continue in...
by ochotona
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:09 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 403
Views: 84946

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Sorry chart is working now... Please look
by ochotona
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 403
Views: 84946

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view
by ochotona
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money
Replies: 19
Views: 409

Re: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money

It's easy to tell people to just keep plugging savings into all four assets, but I don't know if I can buy more EDV. More gold... .eh, maybe I should at least wait for a drop below 1500 . Stocks? Just rebalanced out. I will likely do the cowardly thing and just keep too much in cash, and then regre...
by ochotona
Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 339

Re: Tactical Bonds

Paul Novell has another twist to his Tactical Bonds portfolio... the "risk-off" bond portfolio could be, if you wanted, 75% US Treasuries, 25% gold. In other words, an equity-free Permanent Portfolio. ;) Equal-weight SHY, IEF, TLT, and Gold. In other words, sample the entire yield curve, then add so...
by ochotona
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 679
Views: 125894

Re: Stock scream room

Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that? The credit bonds are quite volatile. They are my stock stand-ins. Paul Novell's model went risk off twice in last 9 months, I have been extremely cautious about getting back in, and how I express my desire to put on risk. I think of myself as a lemming...
by ochotona
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 679
Views: 125894

Re: Stock scream room

Stocks dump yesterday... I made $4000 Stocks soar today... I made $1400 Yessssss! I think I stumbled by sheer luck into the perfect portfolio for the present day. It's really odd! How is it doing this? It's purely a result of getting stopped-out of equities and being too chickenshlt to jump back in,...