Now that the PP is running again, i am a  bit nervous about the Deutsche Bank index swaps in UPRO. Its possible that DB will go into bankruptcy this year, so are you sure that the swaps are safe?

I do something similar, for a starter i would clone the stocks of NOBL, historically it has outperformed the S&P500 by ~2% mostly by going down less during crashes. I try to avoid the overvalued stocks of the dividend aristocrats. If someone wants to read about that approach www.suredividend.com...

If all investment returns are paltry, i am sure that your house belongs to that category, too. Buying a deprecating asset with leverage is not a good idea. :) Rent and accumulate cash. That way you get richer while everybody else gets poorer. Or just rent and stick to the PP, just in case. Look at t...

It might be possible to tolerate this risk if you do your "savings" correctly as I mentioned elsewhere.  Around 25% CAGR a year is a pipe dream to 99.99% of people and yet investors take similar risks already with super-majority amounts invested into the S&P 500 or momentum or value. ...

Higher short term rates = economy growing = higher borrowing = higher spending = higher long term rates = higher savings = higher capital flows = higher dollar = reshoring of offshored manufacturing = higher employment = higher wages.  All Is Well. I believe this is how the Fed wants to view it.  D...

TLT, deflation coming closer because of the FED action in december. That makes no sense. Why? Higher short term rates = credit more expensive = lower spending = lower inflation = lower long term rates or Higher short term rates = higher dollar = deflation (this one is already going on since last ye...

TLT, deflation coming closer because of the FED action in december.

I think the ideal 2 stock etfs would be a value and a momentum ETF, because these are 80% correlated to the market but uncorrelated to each other and both add value over time over the market index. QMOM will launch at the start of december, but like QVAL i bet my ass that it starts with a big drawd...

I could save you some time if I haven't mentioned it before, but this is the ETF that you want: QVAL I think the ideal 2 stock etfs would be a value and a momentum ETF, because these are 80% correlated to the market but uncorrelated to each other and both add value over time over the market index. ...

Now is probably the worst possible time to switch from the PP to another asset allocation. Do it when gold and LTT were the top performer and stocks had a 30-50% DD. Bull markets don`t last forever and this bull is in its last leg.

You mean like throwing good money after bad year after year speculating on gold that some event  will make it go up and hopefully over the next 40 years do better than a t-bill  like the last 40 failed to do ? I mean call a spade a spade. If you want to call adjusting a portfolio slightly with diff...

Well whether you are a sheep, goat, or donkey, I have no idea... However, you seem to be a bit confused about something.... No i am not, and the beauty of the PP idea is that i don`t have to be right on anything and still can make a profit. The best time to start an investment is when nobody likes ...

4x4 wrote: Are you confusing the role of the PP w that of the VP?

Why not keep money you can't lose in the PP and allocate that which is more discretionary to a VP?

Because i am not a sheep of HB.

Thanks Gosso for your posts! I stopped using the PP in late 2013 but started a 3xPP two months ago with 25% of my networth. If history is any guide (and especially when i read the latest comments here) its the perfect time for that. Won`t take long until either inflation picks up or the FED has to e...

Others have done these tests. Check http://greenbackd.com/2015/04/07/is-simpler-better-quantopian-tests-the-acquirers-multiple-and-joel-greenblatts-magic-formula/ The most important criteria is a low EV/EBITDA, quality adds peace of mind but not a lot to returns. I would recommend reading Quantitati...

I really wanted to destroy this allocation and did a backtest with monthly rebalancing for 2007 and 2008. You would have lost around 50-60%, so not a lot more than a pure equity strategy. But since 1/1/2007 you would have a CAGR of 16.9%, compared to a CAGR of 6.1% with SPY and around 14% with a 2xP...

Thats the problem when you buy something without a clue of what it is worth :). I would try to find the p/b value of GDX and then look for an average p/b multiple to find what could be a "fair" value of GDX. GDX (i.e. the mining business in general) has a good history of value destruction...

Thats the problem when you buy something without a clue of what it is worth :). I would try to find the p/b value of GDX and then look for an average p/b multiple to find what could be a "fair" value of GDX. GDX (i.e. the mining business in general) has a good history of value destruction,...

Yes. I will outperform in down markets, just like the PP does. For example in january the market was down 3%, i was up 1.5%. But who cares, everybody has to find his way of investing, there is no path that works for everybody. When the PP works for you, that is very good!

Has this information helped you make any $? 15% since i left the PP path last year in august with less volatility than the market. But it was a lot of work involved,so the PP is definitly the easier path for that. :) But i have the vision to reach a CAGR of 15-20% in the long run and had big psycho...

AdamA wrote: What have you learned from Warren Buffet?

Everything that is important about value investing and investing in general.

That can`t be! Markets are efficient!!! .... not ...

But since you posted this, look at the last 3 posts here: http://greenbackd.com/

I continue to like WB, even when i didn`t like the KO move. There is plenty to learn from him, you just have to listen.

I have to admit that i am not bearish on gold for the short term anymore . I recently bought a position in GOLD (the miner) in anticipation of the good old PP times.

I see it like you, the stock market has held up very well on thursday and friday for what was going on. As long as the russians don`t invade, the crisis should be out of the public by summer after the elections. When they invade and the western world sanctions hit, it will lead to a last downspike. ...