Gold to bounce soon?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pugchief
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Gold to bounce soon?

Post by pugchief » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:39 pm

Technically, gold is massively oversold. It has dropped from $1,360 to $1,240 an ounce since mid-April. By all conventional technical measures, it is due for a bounce.

Seasonally, gold tends to fare best between July and October. If you want to bet on the yellow metal, this is the time of the year to do it.

Finally, sentiment toward gold is near a 10-year low.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that money managers are net short gold futures for one of the few times in more than a decade.

And when money managers have been short gold in the past, it returned an average of 13.4% over the following three months.

None of these factors alone are enough to tip the scales in favor of gold. But taken together, they offer a robust risk-versus-reward trade.
The whole article here: https://libertythroughwealth.com/2018/0 ... into-gold/
Warning: The author is negative on gold in general and says so in the article.
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dualstow
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by dualstow » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:22 pm

This is for people getting in and out of gold, right? Not real investors.
(article author) If you want to bet on the yellow metal,
And look to ride it until the gold price hits $1,370.
de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
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ochotona
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:41 am

I think I'll take another look at accumulating GLDM after about 5 or 6 months have passed since the price slide started mid-April 2018. Maybe wait until after the FOMC meeting in late September.
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dualstow
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by dualstow » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:06 am

No rush here.
de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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ochotona
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:08 am

As long as the US Dollar is climbing, gold is falling. The Turkey thing is killing gold as people swarm out of the Euro.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:21 am

Everything kills gold...
Calling @tech, what is your take on the recent plunge?
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Cortopassi
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:58 pm

For the first time in a long time, I have not looked at my accounts since Friday.

Until now.

Woo hoo, back up the truck, buying opportunity. What's the icon for sarcasm?
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:33 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:58 pm
Woo hoo, back up the truck, buying opportunity. What's the icon for sarcasm?
https://goo.gl/images/9tvhZF
de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
hardlawjockey
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by hardlawjockey » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:07 am

An article about Elizabeth Warren's "Accountable Capitalism Act". I tend to think that if it had any chance of passing or if it even looks like Ms Warren has any chance of being elected president in 2020, gold will do much more than just "bounce".

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/08/ ... hard-left/
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buddtholomew
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:17 am

Why do we want Gold to go up (serious question)?
Are we thinking about this the wrong way?
What is the impact to our daily lives if Gold doubles?
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by hardlawjockey » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:30 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:17 am
Why do we want Gold to go up (serious question)?
Are we thinking about this the wrong way?
What is the impact to our daily lives if Gold doubles?
Well, I think we definitely want it to go up if everything else is going down, which is basically why I thought we held it.

But generally speaking, a high price of gold probably isn't a sign of economic health.
Last edited by hardlawjockey on Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:48 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Desert
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Re: Gold to bounce soon?

Post by Desert » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:33 am

Budd, I agree. The last time we had a big gold rally was during the run-up to the worst financial crisis since the great depression. I think we should enjoy our cheap gold.

By the way, I expect to see triple digit gold again at some point. But I'm buying anyway, to rebalance.
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