Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Ochotona,
What is your rule for getting back in?
Keep us posted on when the newsletter suggests getting out of cash.
What is your rule for getting back in?
Keep us posted on when the newsletter suggests getting out of cash.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
So it is indeed you on bogleheads.
Congratulations!
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
No need. Very much like you did this time. Tell about a signal after enough time passed.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
I saw your post in the BH thread that tech linked to. Maybe I'll have to go re-read it, I thought you told them you sold 90% of your stocks. I do remember you saying it was a cool million that you saved from the debacle, so prost to you!ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:31 am By now I don't think it's a violation of IP to say that Paul Novell's newsletter got me out of equities at the end of February. Every TAA strategy is out or will be out at their next trading date. I was only 55% equities to begin with the moment the dam broke, so I am down 3.3% right now. I think that's a huge win.
If gold pukes down 25% like it did in 2008, I'm a buyer in the $1050 - $1250 range again.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Neat. I was a bit over 55% equities and did not pull a rip cord at the end of February, and am down 17-18% from the peak.ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:31 am I see HPBB is down about 5% from Feb 19, that's super. I'm very happy for all of the HBPP investors.
By now I don't think it's a violation of IP to say that Paul Novell's newsletter got me out of equities at the end of February. Every TAA strategy is out or will be out at their next trading date. I was only 55% equities to begin with the moment the dam broke, so I am down 3.3% right now. I think that's a huge win.
If gold pukes down 25% like it did in 2008, I'm a buyer in the $1050 - $1250 range again.
Not the end of the world, but 3.3% would feel like Christmas morning.
.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
I haven't checked from the peak but as of a short time ago I'm up 14.5% in the last 12 months and 0.7% YTD.dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:16 amNeat. I was a bit over 55% equities and did not pull a rip cord at the end of February, and am down 17-18% from the peak.ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:31 am I see HPBB is down about 5% from Feb 19, that's super. I'm very happy for all of the HBPP investors.
By now I don't think it's a violation of IP to say that Paul Novell's newsletter got me out of equities at the end of February. Every TAA strategy is out or will be out at their next trading date. I was only 55% equities to begin with the moment the dam broke, so I am down 3.3% right now. I think that's a huge win.
If gold pukes down 25% like it did in 2008, I'm a buyer in the $1050 - $1250 range again.
Not the end of the world, but 3.3% would feel like Christmas morning.
Pretty good, considering.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Now you can buy it back instead of buying that house.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am I got lucky in selling about 12% of my gold this year at higher prices for reasons completely unrelated to the plague.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
As soon as the crisis is past, I may do that.dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:49 amNow you can buy it back instead of buying that house.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am I got lucky in selling about 12% of my gold this year at higher prices for reasons completely unrelated to the plague.
Right now the premiums are insane so I probably would lose money even at $100 lower spot prices.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Good point. And yet I keep pathetically checking whether coins are in stock, like a rat in a Skinner box.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
This is my YTD with one piece of my money - guess you can see the stages of being conservative, then becoming berserker.. short sales bans afterwards .. Not that bad, but I hate those games.
Those days EU FX-ers are playing a lot on USD/NOK FX pair (and are keeping busy the EU brokers
) .. guess you are pretty much unaware of what NOK is.. but see the FX graphic.. crazy crazy times 
Those days EU FX-ers are playing a lot on USD/NOK FX pair (and are keeping busy the EU brokers


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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Exactly. Not aware why the graphic looks so vertical in the recent days, but indeed its quite vertical.
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while. Congratulations to all, you've all done well in your own practices.
Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Ha! They are. Which makes you Black Philip.
Live deliciously, Ocho. Live deliciously.

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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Good for you getting out while the time was right..ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while. Congratulations to all, you've all done well in your own practices.
Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
I have been looking over the site you posted and it is very interesting to add an additional layer.
A lot of opinions out there in the investing world and most are just wrong at the timing.
I like it and will be tailoring it a little for me.
I am holding off on stocks though I think this thing could drop further maybe 20 percent more in a short time.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
SPX < 1800
Gold < 1300
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
There were several support (then resistance) levels passed and many guys are now filling the web with their predictions that if S&P cuts 2300 there is no reason to receive any positive signal from anyone. Of course technical charting is BS, given what we are experiencing too. IMHO, one have to be quite an optimist to think we've reached anywhere near bottom... Yesterday, Italy announced it will halt all of its non-strategic production (i.e. shutting down maybe 80-90% of factories). Unfortunately, it might be that we see this type of production halts in other places around the globe. So, no (or greatly reduced) production -> stocks plummet, that's my overly simplified logic.
Personally, outside my hardcore PP, I do not own any single piece of long stock right now (exited 25-26-27 Feb, can't recall exactly) ..
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
From my GEM blog -
The GEM will be in bonds on April 1, 2020, unless the S&P 500 can increase 23% by then. That doesn't seem likely, what with the increasing exponentially increasing numbers of sick in the USA and around the world. If it happens, I'll tell you.
Take stock of where you are. If you've been taken down by natural processes from a 60/40 portfolio to a 40/60, maybe you could consider just holding on at that level, especially if you're young and have decades before you need the money. Maybe if you were 100% equities, and now you're 70%, maybe sell some so you get down below 50%. Sell down to your personal "sleep at night" level.
Keep some perspective - If you've been invested since 2009, when the S&P 500 bottomed at "666" eleven years ago, even at the close on Friday 3/20/2020 you've had a 322% total gain. Take your loot and be thankful!
Another thing you can do now... don't rebalance your portfolio yet, turn off automatic dividend reinvestment, pay them out as cash. Put all new 401(k) or IRA payroll deduction money to bonds or cash. Then, when GEM goes risk-on again, rebalance your portfolio at that moment, after the crisis passes and we're back to growth.
I've been as shocked as anyone at how poorly totally safe-haven bonds like Intermediate U.S. Treasuries (IEI) have done in the short term. I've been told that it has been forced redemptions by large hedge funds blowing up. I've taken hits on those, also Aggregate Bonds (AGG, SCHZ), and Municipals (MUB). Even gold (GLD) has been hit by forced redemptions. "WT...?" I've been tempted to go to cash, but have resisted the urge.
Putting in another commercial for Paul Novell (and he doesn't pay me), Economic Pulse got me out on 2/28/2020. GEM is slower. Frankly, the $35 per month I pay for the newsletter is almost the best money I have ever spent, second only to the engagement ring for me wife.
One of the voices is listen to is John Hussman, and he thinks fair value on the S&P 500 is 1100-ish. For a long while, he's been predicting a market crack-up, and it finally took a pandemic "pin" to pop the bubble. If that's so, we have a long way to fall yet. And he thinks losing 2/3 would not be an extreme loss, it could overshoot on the downside. Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital says very similar things. Lance Roberts says look for a sucker rally, then more declines.
Remember - the difference between an 80% loss and a 90% loss is not 10%. It's taking an 80% loss, and then ANOTHER 50% loss on top of that! The mathematics of loss. Both people start with 100 beans, one is left with 20, the other 10. The one with 10 has half of the number of beans as the one with 20. Right?
Most of all, protect your health. That you can't buy with money. Don't go out. Get groceries delivered or use curbside pick-up. Suffer through home haircuts. Brush your teeth and floss, and skip the dentist for now. The optometrist can wait. Chiropractor can wait.
I think in 2021 we're back to growth, after a vaccine is out. I think 2020 is a lost cause. Whether US or International equities... who knows? GEM will decide.
The GEM will be in bonds on April 1, 2020, unless the S&P 500 can increase 23% by then. That doesn't seem likely, what with the increasing exponentially increasing numbers of sick in the USA and around the world. If it happens, I'll tell you.
Take stock of where you are. If you've been taken down by natural processes from a 60/40 portfolio to a 40/60, maybe you could consider just holding on at that level, especially if you're young and have decades before you need the money. Maybe if you were 100% equities, and now you're 70%, maybe sell some so you get down below 50%. Sell down to your personal "sleep at night" level.
Keep some perspective - If you've been invested since 2009, when the S&P 500 bottomed at "666" eleven years ago, even at the close on Friday 3/20/2020 you've had a 322% total gain. Take your loot and be thankful!
Another thing you can do now... don't rebalance your portfolio yet, turn off automatic dividend reinvestment, pay them out as cash. Put all new 401(k) or IRA payroll deduction money to bonds or cash. Then, when GEM goes risk-on again, rebalance your portfolio at that moment, after the crisis passes and we're back to growth.
I've been as shocked as anyone at how poorly totally safe-haven bonds like Intermediate U.S. Treasuries (IEI) have done in the short term. I've been told that it has been forced redemptions by large hedge funds blowing up. I've taken hits on those, also Aggregate Bonds (AGG, SCHZ), and Municipals (MUB). Even gold (GLD) has been hit by forced redemptions. "WT...?" I've been tempted to go to cash, but have resisted the urge.
Putting in another commercial for Paul Novell (and he doesn't pay me), Economic Pulse got me out on 2/28/2020. GEM is slower. Frankly, the $35 per month I pay for the newsletter is almost the best money I have ever spent, second only to the engagement ring for me wife.
One of the voices is listen to is John Hussman, and he thinks fair value on the S&P 500 is 1100-ish. For a long while, he's been predicting a market crack-up, and it finally took a pandemic "pin" to pop the bubble. If that's so, we have a long way to fall yet. And he thinks losing 2/3 would not be an extreme loss, it could overshoot on the downside. Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital says very similar things. Lance Roberts says look for a sucker rally, then more declines.
Remember - the difference between an 80% loss and a 90% loss is not 10%. It's taking an 80% loss, and then ANOTHER 50% loss on top of that! The mathematics of loss. Both people start with 100 beans, one is left with 20, the other 10. The one with 10 has half of the number of beans as the one with 20. Right?
Most of all, protect your health. That you can't buy with money. Don't go out. Get groceries delivered or use curbside pick-up. Suffer through home haircuts. Brush your teeth and floss, and skip the dentist for now. The optometrist can wait. Chiropractor can wait.
I think in 2021 we're back to growth, after a vaccine is out. I think 2020 is a lost cause. Whether US or International equities... who knows? GEM will decide.
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Ochotona,
Well said!
Did not know you work as a psychologist part-time. ;-)
Well said!
Did not know you work as a psychologist part-time. ;-)
Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Can I haz this for Xmas? Please? The early 1933 to early 1937 run? Almost tripled in four years using moving average trading, and that does not include dividends. More than tripled with dividends. Doubled in two years. If I double from where I am now, I will retire. Absolutely, positively.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
What does "net" mean there? That you do own some still?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.