Oh Come On

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10624
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Oh Come On

Post by dualstow » Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:05 pm

buddtholomew wrote: Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once ;)
I think you've written a poem! O0
Almost rhymes.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Oh Come On

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:49 pm

buddtholomew wrote:So true!
Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once ;)
Schmuck, no?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2098
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:39 am

MachineGhost wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:So true!
Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once ;)
Schmuck, no?
That too. Probably the most often besides schmendrick (sp?)
dragoncar
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1111
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:23 pm

Re: Oh Come On

Post by dragoncar » Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:31 pm

And so it unbegins
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2098
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:37 pm

Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
iwealth
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Apr 26, 2012 5:45 pm

Re: Oh Come On

Post by iwealth » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:14 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
EDV is so monstrously volatile, hope you can handle watching it! Total return will be nearly identical to the TLT but it'll feel like a wilder ride.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3277
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: Oh Come On

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:24 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Is it inflation, deflation or the FED?
Maybe its to punish those that went to cash..
Mostly it's foreign money looking for a place to hide. The global economy is dangerously weak with many of the major industrialized states showing signs of slipping back into recession. Compounding this is that many of them already have zero or negative interest bond rates. By contrast the US economy seems to be limping along for now, not in anything resembling prosperity but not in immediate danger of slipping back into recession. Our bonds with their pitiful 2-4% yields, depending on what your looking at, are quite attractive compared to the negative rates elsewhere. And there are a lot of US companies that are actually starting to pay dividends. With a strengthening dollar this could last for a while.

In short, the US is the proverbial best house in a bad neighborhood.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2098
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:56 pm

iwealth wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
EDV is so monstrously volatile, hope you can handle watching it! Total return will be nearly identical to the TLT but it'll feel like a wilder ride.
The EDV holding only comprises 6% of total income as its a small IRA.
I wanted to maintain fixed income duration and free up cash in the IRA to invest in either SPY or IAU if I need to re-balance out of treasuries.
If yields rise significantly from now I lose the same amount of absolute $ (I think) and then have the cash to reinvest at higher yields to maintain 5.6 years.
It basically opened up a few doors. Aren't expecting to make money, more decided to go with the barbell approach.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Oh Come On

Post by MachineGhost » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:53 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
Technically, it is a 6.1 year duration with 30 and 1. Before the Big Kablooey in 1980, it would have been 3 years. It's amazing such small durations can mask such portfolio damage.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2098
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:08 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
Technically, it is a 6.1 year duration with 30 and 1. Before the Big Kablooey in 1980, it would have been 3 years. It's amazing such small durations can mask such portfolio damage.
I use 24.8 and 0.
Based on my calculations I am currently 5.65
That was before today...
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Oh Come On

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:53 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:02 pm
I do find it nervewracking to wait for gold to arrive, and to store it, and to transport it to and fro the safe deposit box.
Still, I wouldn't be surprised if *a* gold ETF turned out to be a sham someday, and I am looking forward to having more in physical and less in ETFs. It just doesn't feel the same to me as owning Pepsi shares.
My last post has almost (but not quite because it would take a lot of work) convinced me to write a post on rationally looking at risk and weighing them in one's decision making. For example, I can't not prove but would guess that the odds of you getting robbed or dying in a car wreck on the way to the vault far exceed the odds of GLD going belly up. Assuming the above is true (and I have no idea if it is), a more rational strategy might be to diversify into several gold funds vice packing around physical gold concentrated in a single location.

Another for example that would be item #1 in this potential post would be something like...the risk to your personal future wealth of you not choosing a portfolio that accurately reflects your real risk tolerance and making poor trading choices at inopportune times exceeds the entire combined probability of all other systemic risk factors discussed on this board. My point isn't folks shouldn't identify potential, pay attention to and discuss various risks, but that they should pay appropriate time and attention proportional to the likelihood of said risks. But more importantly they should act accordingly.
Another key post worth resurrecting. However, I'm not fully understanding the highlighted portion.

Is "vice" the word you intended to you?

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Oh Come On

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:57 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:41 pm
A wealth tax? I hope I don't live to see the day. (Crosses fingers), I mean not in a twisted Monkey's Paw story kind of way. I don't want to die young.
I just really fear something like a wealth tax. Seems like communism.
If Elizabeth Warren DOES get elected and her wealth tax proposal does get passed you MAY in YOUR lifetime see the minimum that gets taxed reach down to affect your wealth!

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
Post Reply