Gyroscopic Investing

Has anyone come across a blog or article which infers what real nominal interest rates would be at without all the QEternity in US, Europe or Japan? Sort of like a Taylor Rule but for bonds?

The ECB claimed it was only going to buy investment-grade corporate bonds, but it went ahead and bought some high yield garbage on its first day of purchasing today. This is just seriously getting out of control, so I'm wondering how bad off we really are in terms of where nominal yields really should be without all this bloody intervention.

I saw something like that flash by, but can't remember where, sorry. Schwab considers 3% on the ten year T-bond to be in the normal range, which corresponds to the environment five years ago. We are far below that. Until then, they recommend shorter durations.

ochotona wrote:I saw something like that flash by, but can't remember where, sorry. Schwab considers 3% on the ten year T-bond to be in the normal range, which corresponds to the environment five years ago. We are far below that. Until then, they recommend shorter durations.

Was that in one of their magazines? I may have those lying around somehwere.

Liz Ann Sonders wrote it in one of her pieces on their website, maybe a year ago. Kathy Jones (Cathy?) at Schwab is a better bond person to follow on Twitter. Marilyn Cohen, CEO of Envision Capital Management is bond guru I listen to sometimes.

German 10 year Bund yield turns negative today. Wow