Gyroscopic Investing

SWHC. Just a nibble. Bought some for the family a few weeks ago, too.

I don't do individual stocks but if I did, I would call that a good bet, particularly given the current political trends. Democrats are great for gun manufactures.

I'd rather buy the products, not the stock! The hardware probably gives you more lasting value.

Luckily, like with Apple, one does not have to choose between being a consumer & a shareholder. :-)
I watched it go up more than 23% since I bought it for my family, so maybe it's unwise that I just bought some for myself. But again, just a taste.

and it fell more than 8% today. 

and a 15% drop this morning. 

Very sad reason behind it, obviously, but SWHC is poised to surge this morning.

dualstow wrote:Very sad reason behind it, obviously, but SWHC is poised to surge this morning.

I really like how you're a pretty good contrarian indicator.

But I got to agree with ochotona. Screw the stock. The gun business is a lot like airlines, just doesn't have great long-term potential.

MachineGhost wrote:

dualstow wrote:Very sad reason behind it, obviously, but SWHC is poised to surge this morning.

I really like how you're a pretty good contrarian indicator.

You're confused - maybe it's your California time zone. The stock did surge on the day that I wrote that post, thank you very much.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SWHC+Historical+Prices

I think you originally wrote something about asking me if I was going to take a stab at shorting the stock today, but wrote over that post. So now that I've covered the palimpsest, I will answer that, too: no, I never short anything.

dualstow wrote:You're confused - maybe it's your California time zone. The stock did surge on the day that I wrote that post, thank you very much.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SWHC+Historical+Prices

I think you originally wrote something about asking me if I was going to take a stab at shorting the stock today, but wrote over that post. So now that I've covered the palimpsest, I will answer that, too: no, I never short anything.

Well, I didn't realize you were already long it since earlier this year. My point was your timing on your entry was spectacularly bad!

I'm tempted to short it but my plate is way too full at the moment. These guns stocks always pop whenever the right wingnuts get their panties all twisted in a bunch about OBAMA! THE EVIL MUSLIM confiscating their guns. You'd think they would have enough guns stockpiled by now, but nope... its a somewhat predictable cycle.

Sorry to pee on your parade!

Haha. Well, admittedly, it's not much of a parade, and not just because of the tragic context, but more because it's only a nibble.
And not really long in the true sense, but it's in a 401(k). The surge is helping me to unload the worst lot at breakeven and I'll probably leave the profitable lot alone.

I have bought and sold it before.

Ahh, time to sell.

Smith & Wesson crushes earnings, as Americans keep buying guns like crazy...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/smith-wes ... 43104.html

Ad Orientem wrote:Smith & Wesson crushes earnings, as Americans keep buying guns like crazy...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/smith-wes ... 43104.html

Louis Navellier still likes it, too.

dualstow wrote:

Ad Orientem wrote:Smith & Wesson crushes earnings, as Americans keep buying guns like crazy...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/smith-wes ... 43104.html

Louis Navellier still likes it, too.

With that guy's sordid track record, who cares?

MachineGhost wrote:

Louis Navellier still likes it, too.

With that guy's sordid track record, who cares?

A very short while ago you said he was one of the few that you liked, no?

dualstow wrote:

MachineGhost wrote:

Louis Navellier still likes it, too.

With that guy's sordid track record, who cares?

A very short while ago you said he was one of the few that you liked, no?

Never.

I guess you just said he was one of the better ones. That's pretty close.
See Pink Elephant in the Room thread, which I just bumped. Took me a few minutes to click to the correct date and then thread.

dualstow wrote:I guess you just said he was one of the better ones. That's pretty close.
See Pink Elephant in the Room thread, which I just bumped. Took me a few minutes to click to the correct date and then thread.

Perhaps I misspoke and it was over a year ago, not "a short while ago". How about: he's one of "the positive ones"?

I still don't like him. There's far, far better newsletter stock pickers than this guy. He's just running off a faltering reputation from hosting a TV show decades ago or something like that. No, that was Reuksayer! Who the hell is Navallier exactly other than a huckster?

His public market timing forecasts isn't that bad:



P.S. Interesting, he claims to never time the market and claims to be a quant. Well, it sure doesn't show up in his poor performance.

MachineGhost wrote:

dualstow wrote:I guess you just said he was one of the better ones. That's pretty close.
See Pink Elephant in the Room thread, which I just bumped. Took me a few minutes to click to the correct date and then thread.

Perhaps I misspoke and it was over a year ago, not "a short while ago".

In that case I'm even more impressed that I remember!

Who the hell is Navallier exactly other than a huckster?

I don't believe in stockpickers myself. I do, however, get paid to go through the clerical motions of clicking on his buys and sells.

After living with his newsletters for enough years, my feeling is that a lot of what he does is simply momentum. And yes, he has a team of quants behind him.

However, a lot of his gains are on penny stocks or something near penny stocks. The problem is that he says, "This is a thinly traded stock, so only buy within 25 cents of the last closing." If you do that, you will never buy the stock. If you chase it and buy at market, you will not be buying at his recommended price. But what does he do when he posts his gains? He shows the stock as being bought at that impossible price.

So, while he's an ok stockpicker, the reality is that you can just buy an index fund and skip all the frantic trading to get the same performance, or perhaps better.