Gyroscopic Investing

It's obviously Trump's fault.

TennPaGa wrote: This article is a couple of years old, but relevant to the discussions here about the U.S.'s economic "malaise".

America's Baby Bust

The main thing that stood out to me was this chart:

[img width=400]http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/imag ... 155103.jpg[/img]

What's your take on it?

Whoo, my wife is above average!

This kind of thing seems more or less inevitable in prosperous, industrialized first world countries, since it's nearly universal among them. It's easy to point to individual things that might be causing  the trend--high mobility and weaker kinship bonds; increased higher education, especially among women; atomized sense of community amidst far greater individualism; a culture that celebrates wealth and innovation over childrearing--but is it possible to have a prosperous, industrialized first world country without these attributes?

My first thought was that for quite a while, infant mortality rates were high, so having 8 kids didn't mean that they all survived.

That makes the chart look more dramatic than it might if it used rates of kids who lived.

Also, there's nothing set in stone about these rates - if it starts to look like we need more young people, people can choose to have more kids, can't they?

I'm a bit more concerned about the demographics of who has more kids - it looks like the less well educated folks have a lot more kids than the well educated ones, and that's creating a shift in our society.

jafs wrote: Also, there's nothing set in stone about these rates - if it starts to look like we need more young people, people can choose to have more kids, can't they?

So you should get started now, no?

I'll get right on that 

jafs wrote: I'm a bit more concerned about the demographics of who has more kids - it looks like the less well educated folks have a lot more kids than the well educated ones, and that's creating a shift in our society.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unoMMru4-c0 <-- Idiocracy nicely sums this up

TennPaGa wrote:

jafs wrote: I'm a bit more concerned about the demographics of who has more kids - it looks like the less well educated folks have a lot more kids than the well educated ones, and that's creating a shift in our society.

My recollection is that the fertility differences between income level were not all that large.  Also, I think this is how it's always been.

Greg wrote:

jafs wrote: I'm a bit more concerned about the demographics of who has more kids - it looks like the less well educated folks have a lot more kids than the well educated ones, and that's creating a shift in our society.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unoMMru4-c0 <-- Idiocracy nicely sums this up

I've not seen Idiocracy.  I think I need to.

Yes, you do.

Libertarian666 wrote:

TennPaGa wrote:

jafs wrote: I'm a bit more concerned about the demographics of who has more kids - it looks like the less well educated folks have a lot more kids than the well educated ones, and that's creating a shift in our society.

My recollection is that the fertility differences between income level were not all that large.  Also, I think this is how it's always been.

Greg wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unoMMru4-c0 <-- Idiocracy nicely sums this up

I've not seen Idiocracy.  I think I need to.

Yes, you do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmZOZjHjT5E <-- Pretty funny idea how it is saying that we should be lucky to get Idiocracy in 500 years. (well, 489 by this point)

Fewer babies: just in time to protect against the Zika virus?

Welcome to Costco.  I love you.

Seriously though, it's a good thing we have healthy amounts of immigration to make up for our sub-replacement fertility.  Another bonus is that those immigrants tend to have more kids.

dragoncar wrote: Seriously though, it's a good thing we have healthy amounts of immigration to make up for our sub-replacement fertility.  Another bonus is that those immigrants tend to have more kids.

You can save a shrinking population through immigration, but you can't save the culture. Immigrants tend to bring their own culture with them rather than fully integrate into the existing culture.

Cultures are like living species: they come into existence, they flourish, and eventually they either adapt and evolve or else they go extinct.

Western cultures with European roots are slowly going extinct as a result of below-replacement-level birth rates and self-destructive values and ideas. Specifically, the de-emphasis of marriage and family--largely due to feminism and the abandonment of religion--has gradually brought us to this point. It is cultural cancer, and it is slowly proving to be terminal.

Tortoise wrote:

dragoncar wrote: Seriously though, it's a good thing we have healthy amounts of immigration to make up for our sub-replacement fertility.  Another bonus is that those immigrants tend to have more kids.

You can save a shrinking population through immigration, but you can't save the culture. Immigrants tend to bring their own culture with them rather than fully integrate into the existing culture.

Also, as the article points out, the immigrants' birth rate rapidly falls to match that of the native population, so it won't work long-term unless you count near-total population replacement as a solution.

Tortoise wrote: Western cultures with European roots are slowly going extinct as a result of below-replacement-level birth rates and self-destructive values and ideas. Specifically, the de-emphasis of marriage and family--largely due to feminism and the abandonment of religion--has gradually brought us to this point. It is cultural cancer, and it is slowly proving to be terminal.

The whole world is experiencing the same fertility decline, though:

[img width=500]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... 0-2050.png[/img]

Maybe us humans are simply reaching the carrying capacity of the earth at our current level of technology. Or maybe it's the result of dramatic improvements in human development. The decreases for Africa, Asia, and Latin America over the last 30 years are particularly striking.

Tortoise wrote:

dragoncar wrote: Seriously though, it's a good thing we have healthy amounts of immigration to make up for our sub-replacement fertility.  Another bonus is that those immigrants tend to have more kids.

You can save a shrinking population through immigration, but you can't save the culture. Immigrants tend to bring their own culture with them rather than fully integrate into the existing culture.

Cultures are like living species: they come into existence, they flourish, and eventually they either adapt and evolve or else they go extinct.

Western cultures with European roots are slowly going extinct as a result of below-replacement-level birth rates and self-destructive values and ideas. Specifically, the de-emphasis of marriage and family--largely due to feminism and the abandonment of religion--has gradually brought us to this point. It is cultural cancer, and it is slowly proving to be terminal.

Kyrie eleison.    But, it is all good.

... M

Mountaineer wrote:

Tortoise wrote:

dragoncar wrote: Seriously though, it's a good thing we have healthy amounts of immigration to make up for our sub-replacement fertility.  Another bonus is that those immigrants tend to have more kids.

You can save a shrinking population through immigration, but you can't save the culture. Immigrants tend to bring their own culture with them rather than fully integrate into the existing culture.

Cultures are like living species: they come into existence, they flourish, and eventually they either adapt and evolve or else they go extinct.

Western cultures with European roots are slowly going extinct as a result of below-replacement-level birth rates and self-destructive values and ideas. Specifically, the de-emphasis of marriage and family--largely due to feminism and the abandonment of religion--has gradually brought us to this point. It is cultural cancer, and it is slowly proving to be terminal.

Kyrie eleison.    But, it is all good.

... M

Don't you mean "carry a laser"?

Pointedstick wrote:

Tortoise wrote:

dragoncar wrote: Seriously though, it's a good thing we have healthy amounts of immigration to make up for our sub-replacement fertility.  Another bonus is that those immigrants tend to have more kids.

You can save a shrinking population through immigration, but you can't save the culture. Immigrants tend to bring their own culture with them rather than fully integrate into the existing culture.

Also, as the article points out, the immigrants' birth rate rapidly falls to match that of the native population, so it won't work long-term unless you count near-total population replacement as a solution.

Tortoise wrote: Western cultures with European roots are slowly going extinct as a result of below-replacement-level birth rates and self-destructive values and ideas. Specifically, the de-emphasis of marriage and family--largely due to feminism and the abandonment of religion--has gradually brought us to this point. It is cultural cancer, and it is slowly proving to be terminal.

The whole world is experiencing the same fertility decline, though:

[img width=500]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... 0-2050.png[/img]

Maybe us humans are simply reaching the carrying capacity of the earth at our current level of technology. Or maybe it's the result of dramatic improvements in human development. The decreases for Africa, Asia, and Latin America over the last 30 years are particularly striking.

We're way past a sustainable population level, for people to have a decent standard of living all around.

jafs wrote:

Pointedstick wrote:

Tortoise wrote: You can save a shrinking population through immigration, but you can't save the culture. Immigrants tend to bring their own culture with them rather than fully integrate into the existing culture.

Also, as the article points out, the immigrants' birth rate rapidly falls to match that of the native population, so it won't work long-term unless you count near-total population replacement as a solution.

Tortoise wrote: Western cultures with European roots are slowly going extinct as a result of below-replacement-level birth rates and self-destructive values and ideas. Specifically, the de-emphasis of marriage and family--largely due to feminism and the abandonment of religion--has gradually brought us to this point. It is cultural cancer, and it is slowly proving to be terminal.

The whole world is experiencing the same fertility decline, though:

[img width=500]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... 0-2050.png[/img]

Maybe us humans are simply reaching the carrying capacity of the earth at our current level of technology. Or maybe it's the result of dramatic improvements in human development. The decreases for Africa, Asia, and Latin America over the last 30 years are particularly striking.

We're way past a sustainable population level, for people to have a decent standard of living all around.

If you are interested in this topic, please read William Catton's classic Overshoot.

In order to have a strong understanding of carrying capacity in the context of where humanity is at today, you must understand the related concepts of "Drawdown" and "Phanton Carrying Capacity" as they apply to our current situation/predicament.

Overshoot shook up my thinking more than any other book I've ever read.

Once you begin to develop an understanding of carrying capacity without the deep ruts of cultural mythology obscuring the basic ecological issues in play, the world can suddenly look like a very different place.

Think of human beings as yeast, and think of fossil fuels as a sugar solution introduced into our environment.  Fossil fuels provided a sudden dramatic surge in our ability to feed ourselves, which, of course, gave rise to dramatic increases in both the number of humans and the consumption levels of many of those humans. 

The trouble is, of course, that fossil fuels are a non-renewable source of energy that, contrary to our cargoist belief in technology to solve all human problems, has no replacement that comes close to the energy density, portability and versatility of fossil fuels.  All beliefs in alternative energy are informed by cargoist technocentric mythology. 

Many modern people who think of themselves as immune to the influence of mythology and magical thinking when constructing their worldviews are enchanted by industrial capitalism and its feedstock, fossil fuels, in a way that will likely make future people look back on us with the same puzzlement that we feel when looking back on the clerics from a few centuries ago who burned scientists at the stake.

In many ways, we are no less deluded than the clerics of the past.  The clerics' delusion was a function of their misunderstanding of the nature of God and how he built the world, whereas modern people's delusion is based on a misunderstanding of the ecological constraints that form limiting principles in our world to all organic life.

If you like the feel of being shaken violently by truths you never even knew existed, give Catton's work a read.  It's pretty strong stuff, but it can provide a window into our folkways and mythologies that many of us mistake for objective truth.  If nothing else, you will gain a deeper understanding of humanity's capacity for self-delusion, which will leave you both more impressed with our raw mental horsepower as a species, and less impressed with our ability to harness our intelligence to build institutions that will provide our species with a shot at long term survival.

It's easily the most exciting intellectual journey I've ever taken, though I didn't come out of it without some scars.

TennPaGa wrote:

MediumTex wrote: If you are interested in this topic, please read William Catton's classic Overshoot.

In order to have a strong understanding of carrying capacity in the context of where humanity is at today, you must understand the related concepts of "Drawdown" and "Phanton Carrying Capacity" as they apply to our current situation/predicament.

Overshoot shook up my thinking more than any other book I've ever read... It's easily the most exciting intellectual journey I've ever taken, though I didn't come out of it without some scars.

Here's an old thread that discusses Overshoot-- it leads off with Tortoise's review of the book.  MT's last post in the thread has links to a couple of chapters.

Geez.  What a great discussion that was back in 2011.  It's a darn shame that the older stuff here (like most forums) doesn't get referred back to much after people stop posting on a topic.

Thanks so much for looking that up.  I had completely forgotten that we had discussed this topic before.

After 'Overshoot' (and 'Ishmael'), balance with Kevin Kelly's 'What Technology Wants'. Catton would call much of it "cargoist", but it's a great read.

Tortoise wrote:

dragoncar wrote: Seriously though, it's a good thing we have healthy amounts of immigration to make up for our sub-replacement fertility.  Another bonus is that those immigrants tend to have more kids.

You can save a shrinking population through immigration, but you can't save the culture. Immigrants tend to bring their own culture with them rather than fully integrate into the existing culture.

This is exactly my problem with the Irish.  Coming here and turning our rivers green

dragoncar wrote: This is exactly my problem with the Irish.  Coming here and turning our rivers green

And those Asians, and their stinky food, keep them out too.

ochotona wrote:

dragoncar wrote: This is exactly my problem with the Irish.  Coming here and turning our rivers green

And those Asians, and their stinky food, keep them out too.

I'm not crazy about people from Oklahoma.  Maybe we could do some kind of interstate immigration restrictions as well.

Desert wrote: And Indians that come over here, I say we send them straight to the res where they belong. 

Your example, although it was intended to be facetious, actually bolsters my point. Look at what happened to Native American culture as a result of the unchecked influx of Europeans to North America. It was decimated.

Unchecked immigration can kill entire cultures; the Native Americans are a good example of that.