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An adaptive permanent portfolio

Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:34 am
by lordmetroid
I have been reading a little bit about an adaptive permanent portfolio from a former hedge fund manager.
http://www.tradevenue.se/SpreZZaturian/ ... -portfolio
A more adaptive model, that I strongly advocate, increases the stock weights by 15%-points for every consecutive negative year on the stock market: 25%, 40%, 55% etc all the way up to 100% after five consecutive negative years (at which point you would have zero weight for the other three asset classes). Halve the stock weight after the first up-year but with a floor at 25%.

Another (daring) amendment could be reducing the stock weight by 6% points for every consecutive up-year that returns above 25%. After five such years you would be 5% net short in stocks. Or, set a floor at 0%, prohibiting yourself from going short.
What do you think about this?
Is there an easy way to backtest this?

Re: An adaptive permanent portfolio

Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:57 am
by dutchtraffic
Backtest it on the Nikkei, i bet it looks horribleĀ  ;)

Re: An adaptive permanent portfolio

Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:28 am
by dualstow
Looks perfect for the vp section of this forum, and without the word [shadow=red,left]permanent[/shadow] in it.

Re: An adaptive permanent portfolio

Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2016 5:35 am
by lordmetroid
Some moderator could perhaps move it to the Variable portfolio section.

Re: An adaptive permanent portfolio

Posted: Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:56 am
by ochotona
You could hand simulate on the Dow averages in the years of the Great Depression. No better test. Problem is I don't have cash and bond returns for those years.