Gyroscopic Investing

Pointedstick wrote: TL;DR: no.

http://anonymousmugwump.blogspot.co.uk/ ... wback.html

Desert wrote: I'm starting to lean this way also.  Why aren't there any Vietnamese terrorists?

TennPaGa wrote:

As a group, they were older, more conservative, and more skeptical of U.S. motives. They were less urban, less wealthy, and substantially less secular. But to my astonishment, none of the individuals I interviewed drew a causal relationship between U.S. drone strikes and al Qaeda recruiting. Indeed, of the 40 men in this cohort, only five believed that U.S. drone strikes were helping al Qaeda more than they were hurting it.

Both studies are limited because they are based on interviews not data on recruitment, attacks and American drone activity.

So, basically, the George Costanza analysis.

Then again, it would certainly be in the interest of people in power (and in the interest of those who have predisposition to harm others) to believe that their actions have no consequences.

Then again, maybe I'm being to harsh.  Perhaps the appropriate conclusion to draw is that the golden rule is a steaming pile of bullshit.

TennPaGa wrote:

As a group, they were older, more conservative, and more skeptical of U.S. motives. They were less urban, less wealthy, and substantially less secular. But to my astonishment, none of the individuals I interviewed drew a causal relationship between U.S. drone strikes and al Qaeda recruiting. Indeed, of the 40 men in this cohort, only five believed that U.S. drone strikes were helping al Qaeda more than they were hurting it.

Both studies are limited because they are based on interviews not data on recruitment, attacks and American drone activity.

So, basically, the George Costanza analysis.

However, it would certainly be in the interest of people in power (and in the interest of those who have predisposition to harm others) to believe that their actions have no consequences.

Then again, maybe I'm being to harsh.  Perhaps the appropriate conclusion to draw is that the golden rule is a steaming pile of bullshit.

Simonjester wrote: Its not just military policy the whole of our political, economic (and military) interactions have been ham-handed, not finding a large percentage of people who hate the US because we bombed his uncle etc. doesn't surprise me... the individual living there may not understand it, but finding large numbers who hate the US because we supported a dictator, toppled a dictator, bought oil, didn't by oil, and generally messed with the whole place, with little forward thinking., wouldn't uprise me much at all, the possibility that we have had a hand in leaving them with large populations of uneducated, easily propagandized, people who are susceptible to cultish religions, and generally angry about their lives, is not a stretch

but we are not the prime cause
they have a messed up society from its own core... and a lot of people not equipped to think critically about why..... the book says "kill infidels" so they aim at us... they aren't going to question the book or the corruption and suffering that they inflict on themselves and each other at all,

Desert wrote:

Reub wrote: It was never true.

I'm starting to lean this way also.  Why aren't there any Vietnamese terrorists?

MachineGhost wrote:

Desert wrote: I'm starting to lean this way also.  Why aren't there any Vietnamese terrorists?

There were Vietnamese terrorists.  They were called the South.  The North won.  ISIS will too if we just continue to bend over like we've been doing.

TennPaGa wrote:

dualstow wrote: I would never argue against the obvious: that terrorists often claim that our misadventures in Iraq are to blame for their actions. However, I can't reconcile this with the fact that those same terrorists also kill Muslims indiscriminately.

Why would you expect that the two facts ought to be reconcilable?  Like Kbg said, it's complex.

dualstow wrote: Kbg, great post. Are you familiar with 'The Closed Circle' by David Pryce-Jones? If so, do you find it to be accurate? Unfair? Somewhere in between?

Kbg wrote: I am now retired but from 2001 to this past April, I spent most of my professional career involved with the Middle East so I think I know it better than most.  Most experts will tell you that the issue is  complex and I agree with that 100%. Most difficult things in the world are complex, but news/journalism/blogging is not written for complex. It is written for simple.  So here's my short list of factors that contribute to what is going on.

1. The internet/social media...people in the Middle East know that the ME sucks as compared to a lot of the rest of the world

2. Dictatorial countries and methods

3. The diffused nature/authority structure of Islam/how the Koran and Hadith are and can be interpreted

4. Lack of social and economic opportunity...wide spread unemployment

5. A huge youth group/bulge...crime and radicalism historically are associated with large youth populations

6. The tribal nature of most of the cultures there

7. The well known "commodity economy" effect

8. Israeli and US ties

9. US presence in the Middle East and the fact that we are the world's main power

10. Personal negative experience with US military members or operations

11. Government corruption

12. Sunni - Shia historical animosity/competition

The list above is not in any prioritized order but honestly I would put hatred of the US in the lower third of the list for the majority of the population. No doubt for some individuals it is at the top of their list depending on what happened to them individually (or a member(s) of their family).  The fact is young people get disaffected for a lot of reasons and turn to radical belief systems. From the 20s-80s it was communism and for our age it is radical Islam.

As a caution to the board, the US has been WAY more successful than Europe in integrating its Islamic population. This is generally believed to be a result of better economic opportunity, greater tolerance and the pure power of American cultural assimilation.  Going anti is likely not a successful strategy over the long term...assuming you care about results vice your personal political opinions and views.

I have no doubt that over the longer haul this stuff will delegitimize itself. It is not an attractive ideology to the vast majority of the earth's population. Of course, the timelines are probably longer than any of us would want. It could last a really long time like communism did or be relatively brief like national socialism was...all depends on the degree and scale to which they piss off the rest of the planet.

Peace out.